$7 NLHE MTT: Large overbets on a flop or board

[D_godfather]

Hi All,

Have seen a few examples recently of the board producing big hands e.g flush or house house, and villian shoving all in.

In this example the flop presented a set. Thoughts?

Sit and Go. Minimal info on villan, only 22 hands, VP45, PF9

PokerStars - 25/50 Ante 6 NL - Holdem - 9 players

UTG+1: 1,237
MP: 2,397
Hero (MP+1): 1,919
MP+2: 1,548
CO: 1,232
BTN: 1,758
SB: 915
Villian BB: 996
UTG: 1,498

9 players post ante of 6, SB posts SB 25, BB posts BB 50

Pre Flop: (pot: 129) Hero has Q♦ A♥

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 150, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 100

Flop: (379, 2 players) 8♣ 8♥ 8♠
Villian BB bets 840 and is all-in, fold

Villian wins 379

 

[ssbn743]

Hi All,

Have seen a few examples recently of the board producing big hands e.g flush or house house, and villian shoving all in.

In this example the flop presented a set. Thoughts?

Sit and Go. Minimal info on villan, only 22 hands, VP45, PF9

PokerStars - 25/50 Ante 6 NL - Holdem - 9 players

UTG+1: 1,237
MP: 2,397
Hero (MP+1): 1,919
MP+2: 1,548
CO: 1,232
BTN: 1,758
SB: 915
Villian BB: 996
UTG: 1,498

9 players post ante of 6, SB posts SB 25, BB posts BB 50

Pre Flop: (pot: 129) Hero has Q♦ A♥

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 150, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 100

Flop: (379, 2 players) 8♣ 8♥ 8♠
Villian BB bets 840 and is all-in, fold

Villian wins 379

As a general rule, especially with players that don't understand how and when to donk/overbet, just fold. They are quite literally helping you play 100% perfectly against them.

That said, I can understand possibly making the call in this case as both of your over cards are almost certainly good. However, let's run the math:

Villain range is almost always a pocket pair or some weird 8 that he's trying to meta-game you into stacking against. For range analysis, let's just nit it down and assume he never has an eight - just remember that if he ever does, the results we're going to get in a minute only get worse.

So: (99,77-22)
Our equity against that range with an 888 (no diamond) flop is: 30%

Plug the numbers into a basic EV calculator (I'll attach pic) and we find a call to be -EV that only gets more -EV if he ever has a 8. Just for reference, the maximum bet we could call here is 160.

So, it may seem like a call, I know I often would feel like it was a call, but the math has shown that we need to fold and move on.

As far as dealing with over bets, every situation is different. Competent villains will over bet in situations where they have a nut advantage, less than competent villains, like your friend here are more unpredictable. My suggestion would be to just do the math in each scenario and act accordingly. Do not be afraid to fold, remember, their actions are only helping you and hurting them.

 

[Jon Poker]

We're just ahead of soooooo much of their range. The mathematical explanation is solid and certainly viable. I dont see many villans doing this with an 8 - if he would have shoved preflop I am snap calling - I just feel like even in this spot I am still ahead a good margin of the time - so I would probably find a call. That's my style and just thinking in general terms of ranges - the BB surely could have some random 8x, they could have a pair - but I think alot of pairs rejam preflop on their stack size facing a large open. So that being said I think they still have a chit ton of air here and this is exactly how you get better hands to fold. If we cbet this around 125 and then they jam with their pairs (full houses) we still fold a ton and they win even more - so I just find the open jam fishy.

In conclusion I just think vs the BB range and the action preflop and post - I am calling here, just ahead of soooooo much and if I am behind to an underpair I am not drawing dead - nor am I down to 10bb or less so i still have some playability in my stack. I am calling off, the rest will be what it will be.

 

[ssbn743]

We're just ahead of soooooo much of their range. The mathematical explanation is solid and certainly viable. I dont see many villans doing this with an 8 - if he would have shoved preflop I am snap calling - I just feel like even in this spot I am still ahead a good margin of the time - so I would probably find a call. That's my style and just thinking in general terms of ranges - the BB surely could have some random 8x, they could have a pair - but I think alot of pairs rejam preflop on their stack size facing a large open. So that being said I think they still have a chit ton of air here and this is exactly how you get better hands to fold. If we cbet this around 125 and then they jam with their pairs (full houses) we still fold a ton and they win even more - so I just find the open jam fishy.

In conclusion I just think vs the BB range and the action preflop and post - I am calling here, just ahead of soooooo much and if I am behind to an underpair I am not drawing dead - nor am I down to 10bb or less so i still have some playability in my stack. I am calling off, the rest will be what it will be.

Man, I hear ya - it does fell like we're simply too strong to fold, with too much buffoonery going on at these stakes - I would be very, very tempted to call myself in this spot.

Also, one note, I thought we had AQdd here, turns out we have AQo. This doesn't affect the math very much just FYI. Maybe, that helps us fold? Splitting hairs obviously, but I don't know, maybe.

However, even if we add in some buffoonery combo's:
(22+,A5s,KQs,J5s,72s,A5o,KQo,J5o,72o)
A range against which we have 50% equity, we're still -$230 EV

The reality is that we need 69% equity to breakeven here. I'm finding it basically impossible to get us 69% equity here - the closest I've been able to get is:
(22+,A9s+,A7s-A2s,K9s+,K7s-K2s,Q9s+,J7s,J5s,T7s-T6s,96s-95s,74s,72s,A9o+,A7o-A2o,K9o+,K7o-K2o,Q9o+,J7o,J5o,T7o-T6o,96o-95o,74o,72o)

And I just don't find that has much basis in reality; further, the above is only breakeven.

I think we need to look at this the other way and thank villain for helping us play optimally against him.

 

[Jon Poker]

Man, I hear ya - it does fell like we're simply too strong to fold, with too much buffoonery going on at these stakes - I would be very, very tempted to call myself in this spot.

Also, one note, I thought we had AQdd here, turns out we have AQo. This doesn't affect the math very much just FYI. Maybe, that helps us fold? Splitting hairs obviously, but I don't know, maybe.

However, even if we add in some buffoonery combo's:
(22+,A5s,KQs,J5s,72s,A5o,KQo,J5o,72o)
A range against which we have 50% equity, we're still -$230 EV

The reality is that we need 69% equity to breakeven here. I'm finding it basically impossible to get us 69% equity here - the closest I've been able to get is:
(22+,A9s+,A7s-A2s,K9s+,K7s-K2s,Q9s+,J7s,J5s,T7s-T6s,96s-95s,74s,72s,A9o+,A7o-A2o,K9o+,K7o-K2o,Q9o+,J7o,J5o,T7o-T6o,96o-95o,74o,72o)

And I just don't find that has much basis in reality; further, the above is only breakeven.

I think we need to look at this the other way and thank villain for helping us play optimally against him.

Mathematically speaking this is never going to be a call. Agreed that I dont think we can make villan spazzy enough to call off profitably here via the correct odds we need. I'm not advocating for a call here 100% of the time - just giving my perspective and my opinions to why I may end up finding a call here. I am comfortable playing 15-20bb stacks - so if I do happen to find a call, I'm still live and able to find some spots to make moves and play the rest of the SNG.

From a mathematical perspective, this is never a call. In a vacuum and agaisnt an opponent we are unsure is spazzing out in spots like this - this is a fold. The only time we can go with our hand here is when we have seen evidence villan may be doing this light - or when we are getting correct odds to do so - which in this case we cannot.

Anyhow, hope this was helpful in some manner. Anyhow, as stated - I was just giving my personal perspective of the hand, why I may find a call, and how I would proceed if I were to lose the hand.

 

[ramignis]

he certainly doesn't have a strong AA or KK hand here. with average pairs, he would most likely play all in on the preflop. with small pairs, if he equalized the preflop, he will not bet first on the flop. he probably has a weak hand.