This is a discussion on $7 NLHE MTT: AKo - Discuss bet sizing on each street within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; Morning all,
Interested to hear thoughts on how you would bet this hand at each stage.
10/20 Ante 3 NL - Holdem - 8 players
We're 70-ish BB deep, and we have a premium in a donk-fest - I really like big sizes here. As a default, with 70BB's, we'd be going 2.5x to open, and 4x + 1x for every limper - so 4x in this case.
I can easily get behind bigger than that, 6x-7x is not out of the question - biggest factor in this discussion is how splashy the blinds are, particularly the Big Blind.
So, 3x is pretty small here - at least it's a raise and makes the donks put more money in, but I think we can extract more value and generate some folds right here.
Hahahaha - the Small Blind calls....hahahaha. There is literally, not one single combo he should be doing this with - so we have that going for us
Flop Ok, this is a spot that's going to have some different opinions and different strategies. It is important to note that this is a relatively unconnected board, normally. No one should ever have 35 here, but you never know in a micro.
We need to consider 3 major things:
1. How connected is this board
3. Our hand strength and how we're going to play
Only you can judge this board - as a default, I would say it's not connected. However, if you're dealing with 24 35 46 buffoons, it may be more connected than I think. Additionally, we do not block the diamonds - which is only one of many draw combo's - don't go nuts just because they're two diamonds out there, but it's a factor no less.
SPR is roughly 4.
(Chunking, in case you don't know, is where we get the effective stack in by the river - pot Geometry stuff)
Chunking guidelines are:
SPR 13 - pot/pot/pot
SPR 9 - pot/.75/.75
SPR 7 - .75/.75/.75
SPR 5.5 - pot/.5/.5
SPR 3.5 - .5/.5/.5
Our hand is a clear category 1 hand, so we want to get the effective stack in and at a bare minimum want to get 3-streets of value here.
How to Proceed
So, we have to consider all that and go from there - I see 3 credible lines:
1. Bet 2/3-3/4 pot and keep that sizing throughout the hand
2. Chunk it off, pot/.5/.5
3. Bet 1/3 pot, followed by 2/3 on the turn, and 2/3 or check otr
In this case, options 1 and 2 are basically the same, we could go 3/4 pot, a shade bigger than .5 on the turn (to make up for the SPR gap), and .5 river shove and they'd basically be identical lines.
As played, your 1/3 pot bet is perfectly fine and acceptable - this is all up to you.
Turn Your sizing here probably isn't horrible, as we essentially nutted up, but I prefer 2/3 here with the line you've chosen, about 330 would be pretty good IMO
River Same thing as turn, your sizing needs to be much bigger here - I'd go closer to 600.
Also take note, that if we'd raised bigger pre-flop, lets say 4x, the pot would be more like 430 and give us a little more comfortable SPR of about 3.5. And bigger sizes like 6x-7x would probably at least generate a few folds, and we'd be in the 3.5SPR range there too - it just makes sizing decision easier.
D_godfather liked this post
Join Date: Apr 2020
Thank you for the response. That all makes a lot of sense. A very structured way to approach the bet sizing.
Join Date: Jan 2017
re: Poker & $7 NLHE MTT: AKo - Discuss bet sizing on each street
Preflop I think is fine. Flop is fine. Turn I would raise a bit more. And river I would bet over 50% pot. Because its an early part of the tournament, betting more for value seems like the play. If this was later in the tournament, your sizing isn’t bad.
Join Date: Aug 2007
In general, each and every bet you made was entirely too small. Pre flop with the early position limper, a 4bb raise will do but I would go to 4.5bb considering the deep stacks and early stages of the tournament.
On the flop, bet 2/3 pot. Any hand that calls your less than 1/3 pot bet here will call a 2/3 bet. By betting less, you are losing value. By betting more here, you are giving drawing hands the incorrect odds to call, which they will call anyway. Force them to make that mistake. Their implied odds are not very high here, as you can easily slow down your action and check behind on turn or river for pot control.
On the turn, raise to about 2/3 pot again. The min bet by SB is pathetic and weak, and literally gives us no information other than that the player has a VERY weak style. Take note of this and exploit the hell out of it in later hands.
1/2-3/4 pot bet on the river will do just fine. All draws and middles pairs fold anyways. AQ and smaller 2 pairs will stick around and pay you off every time.
Always consider these factors. Effective stack size? Reads on opponent? Your table image? Ranges of hands your opponents could have?