Morning all,
Interested to hear thoughts on how you would bet this hand at each stage.
10/20 Ante 3 NL - Holdem - 8 players
MP+1: 1,434
CO: 1,484
BTN: 3,212
SB: 1,454
BB: 1,494
UTG: 1,454
UTG+1: 1,474
Hero (MP): 1,494
8 players post ante of 3, SB posts SB 10, BB posts BB 20
Pre Flop: (pot: 54) Hero has A♣ K♠
fold, UTG+1 calls 20, Hero raises to 60, MP+1 calls 60, fold, BTN calls 60, SB calls 50, fold, UTG+1 calls 40
Flop: (344, 5 players) A♦ 2♣ 4♦
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 107, fold, fold, SB calls 107, fold
Turn: (558, 2 players) K♥
SB bets 20, Hero raises to 205, SB calls 185
River: (968, 2 players) 7♠
SB checks, Hero bets 260, SB calls 260
Hero shows A♣ K♠ (Two Pair, Aces and Kings)
(Pre 71%, Flop 86%, Turn 100%)
SB mucks A♠ Q♠ (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 29%, Flop 14%, Turn 0%)
Hero wins 1,488
Pre-flop
We're 70-ish BB deep, and we have a premium in a donk-fest - I really like big sizes here. As a default, with 70BB's, we'd be going 2.5x to open, and 4x + 1x for every limper - so 4x in this case.
I can easily get behind bigger than that, 6x-7x is not out of the question - biggest factor in this discussion is how splashy the blinds are, particularly the Big Blind.
So, 3x is pretty small here - at least it's a raise and makes the donks put more money in, but I think we can extract more value and generate some folds right here.
Hahahaha - the Small Blind calls....hahahaha. There is literally, not one single combo he should be doing this with - so we have that going for us
Flop
Ok, this is a spot that's going to have some different opinions and different strategies. It is important to note that this is a relatively unconnected board, normally. No one should ever have 35 here, but you never know in a micro.
Considerations
We need to consider 3 major things:
1. How connected is this board
2. SPR
3. Our hand strength and how we're going to play
Only you can judge this board - as a default, I would say it's not connected. However, if you're dealing with 24 35 46 buffoons, it may be more connected than I think. Additionally, we do not block the diamonds - which is only one of many draw combo's - don't go nuts just because they're two diamonds out there, but it's a factor no less.
SPR is roughly 4.
(Chunking, in case you don't know, is where we get the effective stack in by the river - pot Geometry stuff)
Chunking guidelines are:
SPR 13 - pot/pot/pot
SPR 9 - pot/.75/.75
SPR 7 - .75/.75/.75
SPR 5.5 - pot/.5/.5
SPR 3.5 - .5/.5/.5
Our hand is a clear category 1 hand, so we want to get the effective stack in and at a bare minimum want to get 3-streets of value here.
How to Proceed
So, we have to consider all that and go from there - I see 3 credible lines:
1. Bet 2/3-3/4 pot and keep that sizing throughout the hand
2. Chunk it off, pot/.5/.5
3. Bet 1/3 pot, followed by 2/3 on the turn, and 2/3 or check otr
In this case, options 1 and 2 are basically the same, we could go 3/4 pot, a shade bigger than .5 on the turn (to make up for the SPR gap), and .5 river shove and they'd basically be identical lines.
As played
As played, your 1/3 pot bet is perfectly fine and acceptable - this is all up to you.
Turn
Your sizing here probably isn't horrible, as we essentially nutted up, but I prefer 2/3 here with the line you've chosen, about 330 would be pretty good IMO
River
Same thing as turn, your sizing needs to be much bigger here - I'd go closer to 600.
Final Thoughts
Also take note, that if we'd raised bigger pre-flop, lets say 4x, the pot would be more like 430 and give us a little more comfortable SPR of about 3.5. And bigger sizes like 6x-7x would probably at least generate a few folds, and we'd be in the 3.5SPR range there too - it just makes sizing decision easier.
