This is a discussion on $7.70 NLHE STT: BU shoves 13bb's. I call in bb-ATo 14bb's left within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 50/11/1
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Hi, it's my first time trying this, so hopefully it works and can be viewed. To recap the question in
Hi, it's my first time trying this, so hopefully it works and can be viewed. To recap the question in detail: STT-Triple Up, 7+.70, 3 of 9 win 21.00. Here we go: 6 left folds to BU who open shoves 13 bb's, SB-folds, I call off the last of my chips (14 bb's) in BB with ATo. All six of us have similar stack sizes. The biggest stack is LJ at 22 bb's, shortest is the SB-12 bb's.
I dont feel like Icm is a factor yet here. The BU is likely loose/passive fish at 50/11 over 37 hands, so his shove range is certainly tighter than optimal. Should I be making an exploitative fold here given this unbalanced value heavy shove? I have never used Icimizer, so I'm kinda lost. Thanks.
ICM is certainly a factor here and a rather large one. A player dubbling up in this situation will not have twice the chance of cashing, so you need more than 50% equity to profitably call. The bubble factor (difference in value between chips lost and won) is higher in this format than a normal 9-man, because rather than 50/30/20 the price pool is spilt 33/33/33.
I would guess, the NASH equilibrium still has you calling with ATo here, but this is because, BTN is assumed to be jamming very wide. If he is not doing that, because he is limping all his junky hands and only jamming premiums, that is going to skew things massively. ATo is not in good shape against a value heavy range. So if this is, what you put him on, it can certainly be fine to pass on this one and look for spots to open jam instead.
The way to analyse this in ICMizer is to first select the tournament structure, if ICMizer knows it, or create it yourself. Which in this case is pretty simple, because its 3 players getting 33,3% each. Then you import the hand history and run the calculation. This gives you the NASH equilibrium. After that you can edit his range to something, you feel is more realistic, and then you run the calculation again.
Ok so ICMizer does actually know this tournament, and I plugged the hand in with the information given by you. 2 stack sizes were missing, and I put them on 15 and 20BB respectively. ATo is actually right at the bottom of Heros NASH equilibrium calling range, since it is AT+, 77+. So folding ATo is certainly not a big adjustment in this spot.
BTN is supposed to be jamming 33% of hands, which includes all pairs, nearly all aces, all broadways and a lot of suited hands like all suited kings. If we give him a more value heavy range like 66+, AT+, KQ, KJs, QJs, then Hero can only make a profitable call with JJ+, AK. So against this kind of opponent, calling with ATo was likely a pretty significant mistake.