$7.70 NLHE STT: BU shoves 13bb's. I call in bb-ATo 14bb's left

[iugiug]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 50/11/1

Poker Tracking Software.

Hi, it's my first time trying this, so hopefully it works and can be viewed. To recap the question in detail: STT-Triple Up, 7+.70, 3 of 9 win 21.00. Here we go: 6 left folds to BU who open shoves 13 bb's, SB-folds, I call off the last of my chips (14 bb's) in BB with ATo. All six of us have similar stack sizes. The biggest stack is LJ at 22 bb's, shortest is the SB-12 bb's.

I dont feel like Icm is a factor yet here. The BU is likely loose/passive fish at 50/11 over 37 hands, so his shove range is certainly tighter than optimal. Should I be making an exploitative fold here given this unbalanced value heavy shove? I have never used Icimizer, so I'm kinda lost. Thanks.

 

[fundiver199]

ICM is certainly a factor here and a rather large one. A player dubbling up in this situation will not have twice the chance of cashing, so you need more than 50% equity to profitably call. The bubble factor (difference in value between chips lost and won) is higher in this format than a normal 9-man, because rather than 50/30/20 the price pool is spilt 33/33/33.

I would guess, the NASH equilibrium still has you calling with ATo here, but this is because, BTN is assumed to be jamming very wide. If he is not doing that, because he is limping all his junky hands and only jamming premiums, that is going to skew things massively. ATo is not in good shape against a value heavy range. So if this is, what you put him on, it can certainly be fine to pass on this one and look for spots to open jam instead.

The way to analyse this in ICMizer is to first select the tournament structure, if ICMizer knows it, or create it yourself. Which in this case is pretty simple, because its 3 players getting 33,3% each. Then you import the hand history and run the calculation. This gives you the NASH equilibrium. After that you can edit his range to something, you feel is more realistic, and then you run the calculation again.

 

[fundiver199]

Ok so ICMizer does actually know this tournament, and I plugged the hand in with the information given by you. 2 stack sizes were missing, and I put them on 15 and 20BB respectively. ATo is actually right at the bottom of Heros NASH equilibrium calling range, since it is AT+, 77+. So folding ATo is certainly not a big adjustment in this spot.

BTN is supposed to be jamming 33% of hands, which includes all pairs, nearly all aces, all broadways and a lot of suited hands like all suited kings. If we give him a more value heavy range like 66+, AT+, KQ, KJs, QJs, then Hero can only make a profitable call with JJ+, AK. So against this kind of opponent, calling with ATo was likely a pretty significant mistake.

 

[iugiug]

Ok so ICMizer does actually know this tournament, and I plugged the hand in with the information given by you. 2 stack sizes were missing, and I put them on 15 and 20BB respectively. ATo is actually right at the bottom of Heros NASH equilibrium calling range, since it is AT+, 77+. So folding ATo is certainly not a big adjustment in this spot.

BTN is supposed to be jamming 33% of hands, which includes all pairs, nearly all aces, all broadways and a lot of suited hands like all suited kings. If we give him a more value heavy range like 66+, AT+, KQ, KJs, QJs, then Hero can only make a profitable call with JJ+, AK. So against this kind of opponent, calling with ATo was likely a pretty significant mistake.

I really appreciate your time analyzing this situation. Honestly I was done posting here because no one answered for weeks I think. Support never even answered when I asked for help with the original post. Significant mistake just sounds a little much. If it is significant I wont deny though. ATo is actually the very worst hand I would call off Vs that Button.

 

[kkonicke]

One day I will learn how to use icmizer, but even without using that I think a fold is best. I think the second range of jj+ and ak is probably closer to my calling range in this case. I would probably include a couple more pairs and aq though. In these types cases, I significantly prefer to play offense versus defense and am willing to slightly overfold, trusting in my ability to pick more good spots than other players to pick up chips.

It's also worth factoring in table trends to the equation to determine your chances of simply folding to the money vs having to win a few hands and put yourself at a small level of risk to make the top 3.

 

[Badday94]

I enjoy reading fundiver's answers since I don't understand anything he says haha. I try to understand all that explanation but what I can't understand is saying it was a significant mistake he didn't put all his chips with A 10. Man I can't remember the last time I won even with J J, Q Q. I'm at the point I never go all in with these hands. If I can't see the flop, I rarely go all in with them. And not calling with A 10 is a significant mistake? It's a flip after all.

Today in the cc freeroll we were 22 left, one guy was so low, had 9k. He went all in with K J, got called by A 9 and A A. Made 3 jacks, now he has 30k all of a sudden. Next shoves A 10 on button, SB calls with A K and guess what, he flops a 10, now he has 55k. Next button shoves with A 10, this guy calls with A 8 and what do you know, he flops one 8 and from 9k in just 3 hands he has 80k.

Next I'm left with 40k with 19 remaining, I make a preflop 2xBb raise to 8k with Kh 10h, he re raises to 16k, I call, flop comes 4 J Q, so I flop a straight draw but the first thing he does is put me all in. I call, ofcourse turn and river were rubish and I'm eliminated by A J. He put me all in with a pair of jacks for my remaining 22k when a queen was on the flop. I mean I was the one who raised preflop first so I could very easily have a Q, but he goes all in anyway and ofcourse that once in my life I can't make the straight. How can some people play like this and run so good?

So back to the topic, it's a coin flip after all with any hand, being it A 10 or jacks or queens or whatever. So I understand the fold here, and I don't think there was a good or bad move here. Sometimes go with your gut, or maybe the mathematical way is better, I don't know I'm bad at this game, what do I know.

 

[fundiver199]

I try to understand all that explanation but what I can't understand is saying it was a significant mistake he didn't put all his chips with A 10.

OP made the call with ATo, and against an opponent, who is not jamming as wide, as he is supposed to, that call was a significant mistake. If the opponent had been playing a GTO strategy, then the call would have been correct but still marginal.