$7.50 NLHE MTT Bounty: What is your preferred line in this spot?

[Satiivas]

Late registration just ended, around 1000 players left.


pokerstars, $6.69 + $0.81 - Hold'em No Limit - 250/500 (80 ante) - 9 players

UTG: 15,931 (32 bb)
UTG+1: 9,086 (18 bb)
MP: 11,491 (23 bb) ($11.90 bounty)
MP+1: 6,540 (13 bb)
LP: 15,448 (31 bb)
CO (Hero): 31,759 (64 bb)
BU: 11,607 (23 bb)
SB: 28,560 (57 bb)
BB: 32,436 (65 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,470) Hero is CO with 9♥ 9♦
2 players fold, MP raises to 11,411 (all-in), 2 players fold, HERO???

 

[FernA9ndo]

I call thinking I am in a coin flip against two overcards.

 

[puzzlefish]

That would be a fold for me, OOP with big stacks to act behind me.

 

[300HPGOD]

The $11.90 bounty is a nice bounty. I dont like that we have some stacks behind us that can get us in trouble or put us out. This hand on itself may be strong enough to call if we were closing the action but even if we were closing the action it would come down to what I thought of villain. I would ask myself is villain ever jamming 23 BBs here in a tourney where they should know they will get called a little lighter than normal due to the bounty chase with any 8 or lower? Meaning doing 8xs like A8 rip there and do pocket pairs less than 88 jam there? I would tend to think no but 88 could be possible. I see villains range (given we have 9s) as 1010+ and A10 suited plus. A10 suited might just be an open and not a jam so against what I'm thinking we are flipping to the good or beat pretty badly.

In a normal tournament I would discount AA and KK here since the villain should want action from those hands but I am not sure you can do that in a bounty tournament. Against the totality of the range you are behind here so I would fold. I dont think you should ever be calling there unless you have reads on your still to act villains that they will perceive a call there instead of a jam over as strong. If you dont read that then you have to pile over if you are going to play this hand.

Best case scenario is we could get button to come along to get and their bounty in play and if they can have two over cards we could possibly get two bounties or even just theirs as they do slightly have MP covered but we cant rely on them to get in too. I just fold here which is nitty on face value but you have to look at all villain could have here and not just assume its 2 over cards.

 

[Sidetracked]

For 23 BBs, I think I'm folding that. At best flipping, at worst vs an overpair.

 

[fundiver199]

In a normal tournament I would fold. Its a very deep open jam, and as others have said, we have two players behind us, who can threaten our stack. So in pure chip EV this is not worth the risk. However bounties do change things quite a bit, and we actually cant analyse the hand properly without knowing the starting stack, and how many percent of the field was left. This is because, the way we analyse bounty hands is by converting the bounty to chips, and to do that we must have that information.

Since I dont have it, I am going to make the assumption, this was a PS bounty builder, and those start with 5k chips. I will also assume, that 35% of the field was left, and I will assume, that 11,9$ was the part of his bounty, we can actually win. If it was his total bounty, the number needs to be devided by 2. With these assumptions the chip value of this bounty was:

11,9$ * 5.000 chips * 1,228 / 6,69$ = 10.922 chips.

So in top of the normal ante and blinds, there was essentially a 10.922 chip ante in the pot because of the all-in players bounty. This mean, that if the players behind fold, we only need 32,5% equity to break even in pure chip EV, whereas without the bounty we would need 47,0%. This is a pretty massive difference. So depending what kind of range, we put the all-in player on, this looks like a spot, where we probably have to jam it in, close our eyes and hope, the two deep stacked players behind us dont wake up with pocket kings. However the assumptions are crucial here, and if for instance we could only win half the 11,9$ bounty, then this is probably a fold. As for how to calculate the chip value of a bounty watch this video:

 

[Satiivas]

In a normal tournament I would fold. Its a very deep open jam, and as others have said, we have two players behind us, who can threaten our stack. So in pure chip EV this is not worth the risk. However bounties do change things quite a bit, and we actually cant analyse the hand properly without knowing the starting stack, and how many percent of the field was left. This is because, the way we analyse bounty hands is by converting the bounty to chips, and to do that we must have that information.

Since I dont have it, I am going to make the assumption, this was a PS bounty builder, and those start with 5k chips. I will also assume, that 35% of the field was left, and I will assume, that 11,9$ was the part of his bounty, we can actually win. If it was his total bounty, the number needs to be devided by 2. With these assumptions the chip value of this bounty was:

11,9$ * 5.000 chips * 1,228 / 6,69$ = 10.922 chips.

So in top of the normal ante and blinds, there was essentially a 10.922 chip ante in the pot because of the all-in players bounty. This mean, that if the players behind fold, we only need 32,5% equity to break even in pure chip EV, whereas without the bounty we would need 47,0%. This is a pretty massive difference. So depending what kind of range, we put the all-in player on, this looks like a spot, where we probably have to jam it in, close our eyes and hope, the two deep stacked players behind us dont wake up with pocket kings. However the assumptions are crucial here, and if for instance we could only win half the 11,9$ bounty, then this is probably a fold. As for how to calculate the chip value of a bounty watch this video:

Sorry for being unclear!

The 11.90$ bounty displayed will be 100% ours if we win, in other words call+win=11.90$ straight to our account.

Also, the tourney was 7.50$ Bounty Builder in PokerStars, the late reg just ended and there were ~1,000 players out of ~3,000 left, so 33% was a good assumption.

 

[fundiver199]

Then its a situation, where the value of his bounty relative to his stack was much larger than at the beginning of the tournament, and as I already demonstrated, we are then justified to go a bit crazy to try and collect that bounty. Whereas if it was UTG+1, that jammed in his 9.086 chips, and his bounty was only worth the minimum of 1,7$, we should lean much more towards folding.

 

[FernA9ndo]

I also prefer to call because of the bounty. Having the correct pot odds you can call.

 

[eetenor]

Late registration just ended, around 1000 players left.


PokerStars, $6.69 + $0.81 - Hold'em No Limit - 250/500 (80 ante) - 9 players

UTG: 15,931 (32 bb)
UTG+1: 9,086 (18 bb)
MP: 11,491 (23 bb) ($11.90 bounty)
MP+1: 6,540 (13 bb)
LP: 15,448 (31 bb)
CO (Hero): 31,759 (64 bb)
BU: 11,607 (23 bb)
SB: 28,560 (57 bb)
BB: 32,436 (65 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,470) Hero is CO with 9♥ 9♦
2 players fold, MP raises to 11,411 (all-in), 2 players fold, HERO???

Thank you for posting.

Calling may induce the BU to call and we may actually get 2 bounties not 1.
We can never fold after calling so calling rather than shoving has a slightly added benefit.

 

[Satiivas]

Thanks for the replies everyone!

In that particular situation, I decided to shove. BB woke up with Aces and the original raiser had AJo and we didn't manage to suck out on him. NEVER LUCKY!

 

[fundiver199]

Well such is poker. If the original raiser can have AJ, then its definitely profitable to try and collect his big bounty, and the risk of the two deep stacked players waking up with QQ+ is only around 3%. If they also call with TT-JJ, which is questionable, the risk is around 5%. So 3-5% you end up in a pretty bad spot for all your chips, but the rest of the time you are mostly making money against the original raiser. Just a really good situation for the guy with AA, so congrats to him

 

[FernA9ndo]

Unlucky, you are against big pairs in 2%, overcards in 12% but the rest of the time you will win.

 

[perrypip]

At best it would have been a coin toss. I would have folded.

 

[Jon Poker]

Snap call for less than 30bb for me, even with players left to act behind. We are flipping alot but we are ahead so often here it's profitable to make the call. If we jam over the top to isolate here we are basically only going to force villans to be at the very top of their range to call us off - at best our iso jam will get called by AK or AQ - every other holding that would call such a move would have us crushed.

We CAN consider folding if we get jammed on since flatting a 23bb open jam should be a very strong play from us - so a jam over the top should be EXTREMELY strong. Myself, personally, on these stack sizes - once I put in 23bb I'm never folding. If you wake up with a monster it is what it is and you are going to get me. If we were 100bb+ deep and we called a 23bb jam and then we got jammed on - im snap folding and just moving on with my 80ish BB left.

 

[Jon Poker]

I would also like to note and point out that you're questioning the situation at hand - and were not questioning the end result. That is a rarity in these hand analysis threads these days. Bravo to you for focusing on what was important in this example.