$66 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: Are you ever folding QQ in this spot?

[TheShek]

I'm in 6th place in the final four tables with 37bb. UTG min raises of a 38bb stack, HUD stats are 22/11 with no 3-bets in 72 hands. HJ shoves 20bb all in, stats 18/8 no 3-bets in 36 hands. Limited reads. I'm in the BB with QQ.

First place is $9600. Is it too tight to fold QQ in this spot? I hate the spot because UTG has me covered and the 20bb stack hasn't 3-bet but very limited sample. But i'm also in a dominant position in the tournament and i'm looking at a tight range.

 

[TheShek]

@plotential

 

[SirYivx]

Interesting spot. I'm assuming the money bubble has already burst? If for some reason it hasn't, this is an insta-fold.

But assuming it has busted and players are now ITM, it puts us in a pretty tough spot. QQ, for me, is quite literally the only hand that I'm thinking about here. KK is an easy shove, and AA of course. JJ and below I am folding, there's just no reason to risk it with Jacks, as UTG can easily come along with AKs, which is what he will usually have here. In fact, his range is pretty capped to AK, AQ, maybe ATs and AJs, KQs, and pocket pairs 77+.

However, even if we are ahead of UTG range, a player equally as tight has just shoved over him for his tournament life. This range is strictly AK or AQ, and pocket pairs TT-AA, which are more likely due to his tight stats. I think I am passing on this spot for a few reasons:

1. There is a chance UTG has both of us beat, and instead of potentially losing vs the 20BB shove and being short, we are now risking our tournament life in a spot that we are definitely behind in.

2. If we take TT and AQ out of HJ's range, which is very possible due to his tight image, we are only beating JJ, losing to KK and AA, and flipping against AK. So we are ahead of only 25% of his range(assuming TT and AQ are not in his 3bet shoving range).

Just based on these two reasons, I would find the fold. If we add ICM into the mix I think we would find that the +EV play here is to fold. Tough spot though.

 

[TheShek]

Definitely a tough spot. When you're looking at QQ you think here's a good spot to pick up some chips. Then this happens.

I like your reasoning. QQ in an online tournament is hard to lay down though. And I didn't have enough of a sample to determine whether this should be a fold. For me the main reason for folding is I could be flipping, but also UTG might fold if I shove or even call with worse. I gave the 20bb shoving stack a wider range including 99+, possible 88. Just figured he has to make some moves to accumulate chips and make the FT. UTG stats were weird, tight yeah but not so tight as to not have 88+, ATs+, KQ+ in his range. The biggest problem with this spot IMO is I can't just call and see what UTG does. It's either all in or fold. And we have the 3rd best hand ever created. Lol.

 

[xy23]

Interesting spot. I'm assuming the money bubble has already burst? If for some reason it hasn't, this is an insta-fold.

But assuming it has busted and players are now ITM, it puts us in a pretty tough spot. QQ, for me, is quite literally the only hand that I'm thinking about here. KK is an easy shove, and AA of course. JJ and below I am folding, there's just no reason to risk it with Jacks, as UTG can easily come along with AKs, which is what he will usually have here. In fact, his range is pretty capped to AK, AQ, maybe ATs and AJs, KQs, and pocket pairs 77+.

However, even if we are ahead of UTG range, a player equally as tight has just shoved over him for his tournament life. This range is strictly AK or AQ, and pocket pairs TT-AA, which are more likely due to his tight stats. I think I am passing on this spot for a few reasons:

1. There is a chance UTG has both of us beat, and instead of potentially losing vs the 20BB shove and being short, we are now risking our tournament life in a spot that we are definitely behind in.

2. If we take TT and AQ out of HJ's range, which is very possible due to his tight image, we are only beating JJ, losing to KK and AA, and flipping against AK. So we are ahead of only 25% of his range(assuming TT and AQ are not in his 3bet shoving range).

Just based on these two reasons, I would find the fold. If we add ICM into the mix I think we would find that the +EV play here is to fold. Tough spot though.

QQ is a shove. If the HJ is 3bet shoving with 20 BB's to a minraise from UTG, that screams AJ, AQ, maybe AK, or some pocket pair. It is never Aces. Therefore since you're way ahead of the Hijacks range, 4bet shoving, effectively isoing the HJ would add pressure to the UTG and UTG would probably find a fold.
If UTG wakes up with Aces or Kings, then it's just the nature of the game. But more often than not, he won't have aces or kings. Folding there is just way too conservative and shoving is probably the better line to take.

 

[TheShek]

QQ is a shove. If the HJ is 3bet shoving with 20 BB's to a minraise from UTG, that screams AJ, AQ, maybe AK, or some pocket pair. It is never Aces. Therefore since you're way ahead of the Hijacks range, 4bet shoving, effectively isoing the HJ would add pressure to the UTG and UTG would probably find a fold.
If UTG wakes up with Aces or Kings, then it's just the nature of the game. But more often than not, he won't have aces or kings. Folding there is just way too conservative and shoving is probably the better line to take.

But then you're just always going with QQ or AK in that spot, and there's good reason to fold those hands sometimes. Especially with ICM as a consideration. I'm sure the top tourny crushers do exactly that when the situation calls for it.

 

[skeptix]

I am definitely getting it in here.

 

[TravelerLloyd]

Is it too tight to fold QQ

Forget that I am going all in with QQ, perhaps they are all holding AK and I am looking good!

I guess that's a hand that late in the game I cant fold, perhaps earlier yes, but not now.

I'm in 6th place in the final four tables with 37bb. UTG min raises of a 38bb stack, HUD stats are 22/11 with no 3-bets in 72 hands. HJ shoves 20bb all in, stats 18/8 no 3-bets in 36 hands. Limited reads. I'm in the BB with QQ.

First place is $9600. Is it too tight to fold QQ in this spot? I hate the spot because UTG has me covered and the 20bb stack hasn't 3-bet but very limited sample. But i'm also in a dominant position in the tournament and i'm looking at a tight range.

 

[xxgsaint5501xx]

I'm in 6th place in the final four tables with 37bb. UTG min raises of a 38bb stack, HUD stats are 22/11 with no 3-bets in 72 hands. HJ shoves 20bb all in, stats 18/8 no 3-bets in 36 hands. Limited reads. I'm in the BB with QQ.

First place is $9600. Is it too tight to fold QQ in this spot? I hate the spot because UTG has me covered and the 20bb stack hasn't 3-bet but very limited sample. But i'm also in a dominant position in the tournament and i'm looking at a tight range.

To me this is just a question of whether you are trying to win the tournament or just ladder up. Personally I play for the win, so this is an insta shove. If utg coolers you with AA or /KK so be it.

 

[Bluffzone68]

Hi
I am folding the QQ with an all-in and a player to respond behind me.

I play better safe than sorry type of hands.

 

[Matt Vaughan]

QQ is an absolute, slam dunk, no-question-about-it SNAP shove here.

You have the 3rd best hand in NLHE - what are you really hoping to have here when someone shoves 20bb? Yes, you're covered by UTG. And in addition to being covered, he can have KK+.... holy crap!

Sure, he can also have JJ, TT, 99, 88, AK, AQ, AJs.... I mean depending on tendencies he may not even fold much of his range here. And that's AWESOME for us. Even if he does fold, we get to go HU with a top 2% hand vs a 20bb stack who we cover handily WITH dead money in the middle. I am salivating just thinking about this spot.

Easy shove. If someone has us beat, gg.

 

[mara2259]

Looks like you're in a sandwich position. By calling overbet from HJ you risk getting a re-raise from the UTG and leave the tournament. Most likely he has AK.

 

[smknginmaine]

Yeah- not the best spot.... But far far from the worst Shove - flat's a BAD play... and really gonna fold QQ there? NO WAY.
All in my man!