$6.60 NLHE MTT: Value bet set of 9s on the river??

[bealpoker]

Villian is in the BB with 50bbs. He is playing 60/40 however sample is only over 10 hands so this statistic shouldn't be too relevant.

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/5qkBXnF


I decided to bet a little under 30% on the flop because my perceived range from EP is heavily Ax and pocket pairs so I assumed I would get a lot of folds given their defending ranges from blinds are pretty wide, and they would usually be behind with any 8x hand etc.

When bb floats the flop I decide to check back and pot control with my 99, He can definitely have some Ax hands, 2 pairs and straight draws like 87.

When my set completes and he leads in to me with a small river bet of <30%, although I feel this bet looks very value heavy and he is trying to induce a call with Ax hands, I feel my hand is very under repped and he could be value betting a worse hand such as 2 pairs etc. He should have a lot more two pairs in his range than he does straights as he would only float flop with straight combos: A7, 77, 87.

Given this information and the board favours his range I don't see him bluffing often here, thus I feel his range is very value heavy and I went for a slightly over pot raise trying to get called by two pairs and strong Ax hands.

What is everyones thoughts here?
Should we just call the river even though his range is very 2 pair heavy?
is it -EV to NOT raise the river?

 

[Brawo]

You played well that hand. I would do the same and with the same amount of chips. Unlucky, good luck next time. Here is nothing to analasys too rare he has a seven to only call.

 

[bealpoker]

You played well that hand. I would do the same and with the same amount of chips. Unlucky, good luck next time. Here is nothing to analasys too rare he has a seven to only call.

Thanks for the response

 

[fundiver199]

Given his river bet was so small, I dont mind your raise. If he made a larger bet, I would just call. I honestly dont understand, why he did not 3-bet and get it in. But good for you obviously, that you did not have to make that decision.

 

[Jon Poker]

The raise preflop is fine and pretty standard - the red flag for me is the SB calls our raise off of a 19bb stack. Not only should the SB flatting range be much stronger than the BBs, but unless they are a bad player they should never be just flatting a raise OOP vs a potential 2 opponents with only 19bb to start the hand...so big red flag for me.

BB completing is normal - flop comes down A hi - this is where I usually go with the check. Heads up vs the BBs range - we can cbet this board all day everyday with our entire range - BUT as I eluded to earlier - when the SB comes along they should have quite a bit of Ax in their flatting range and checking to us is a standard play.

For those reasons I dont want to get check/raised by the SB, nor do I want to value town myself vs an Ace. So I tend to check this flop back and call a bet on practically every possible turn card.

When we bet flop and get a call from the BB the turn card brings in some straight draws, possible 2 pair combos and 1pr+ draw combos they could have. Point is we have no idea where we now stand in this hand and have to check turn almost always. If we bet and get raised here I think we HAVE to fold. No hand we currently beat is going take that line on the turn.

The river is both good and bad for us on soooooo many levels. We hit our set which means we have out drawn Ax, 2 pair combos and the unlikely smaller sets. The bad news is now we have such a strong hand we really cant fold to any big bets the BB may put into us and their range contains pretty much alllll of the 7x hands that could be playing this board.

In short - we are now too strong to fold BUT we are not strong enough to raise. When we do raise here we are pretty much ONLY getting called by the straight and we are taking ourselves to value town.

Summary - check back flop vs 2 opponents especially with the short SB in the hand. Call all reasonable turn bets - call the river bet - DO not raise!

As played - after betting flop - check turn and call river. Dont bloat the pot without the nuts or 2nd nuts

 

[eetenor]

Villian is in the BB with 50bbs. He is playing 60/40 however sample is only over 10 hands so this statistic shouldn't be too relevant.

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/5qkBXnF


I decided to bet a little under 30% on the flop because my perceived range from EP is heavily Ax and pocket pairs so I assumed I would get a lot of folds given their defending ranges from blinds are pretty wide, and they would usually be behind with any 8x hand etc.

When bb floats the flop I decide to check back and pot control with my 99, He can definitely have some Ax hands, 2 pairs and straight draws like 87.

When my set completes and he leads in to me with a small river bet of <30%, although I feel this bet looks very value heavy and he is trying to induce a call with Ax hands, I feel my hand is very under repped and he could be value betting a worse hand such as 2 pairs etc. He should have a lot more two pairs in his range than he does straights as he would only float flop with straight combos: A7, 77, 87.

Given this information and the board favours his range I don't see him bluffing often here, thus I feel his range is very value heavy and I went for a slightly over pot raise trying to get called by two pairs and strong Ax hands.

What is everyones thoughts here?
Should we just call the river even though his range is very 2 pair heavy?
is it -EV to NOT raise the river?

Thank U 4 Posting

Please look at the range you gave villain A7 77 87 and think about why u raised the 9 river.
Yes we can imagine all kind of 2 pair combos and therefore underweight the above hands.

This is important in how we think about play. A7 77 87 are not floats. A float is when you have no pair and at best a weak draw and you plan to get your villain to fold to a significant bet size or multiple street bets. Float hands would be J4s 43 Q3s Q4 etc etc.
If in fact our villain was floating us and bet river when we raise we should not get called.
A big reason to just call the river.
30% lead as a bluff in your player pool is that likely? You said no.


Now both you and the villain see that the board is 4 to a straight. We must use that as a data point. Most players adjust their actions on those boards. Often that adjustment is very unbalanced.
Prior to you seeing the call did you really think this villain had the skill to thin value bet rather than bluff catch on that board?
If the villain is skilled enough to thin value on a 4 straight board, why would this villain not lead turn with A8 A6 A5? Would a skilled villain with 2 pair expect you to bet AQ on that 5 turn? Especially when they are in the BB. Would said skilled player not also lead turn bluff shove river bluff?
No way most villains slow play 86 on that flop.
If V is skilled enough to thin value this river, the most likely river two pair hands are 85 65 now their range is weighted way more to hands with a 7 that would take this line on the river.
No I am not being exact with these ranges but in the heat of the game most of us cannot do more when ranging than I just did above.

Your villain misplayed their hand by calling your river raise passively. Do you really think they would also misplay by calling that bet with weak 2 pair hands. Sometimes maybe but was this V really expecting a bluff? Would you not just call 99% of the time when they had you beat. If not and they would be expecting you to bluff we are circling back to 99% of the time 2 pair hands are bluff catching.

If your V is skilled enough to play very well. They should be betting a size that takes away your fold equity when they have 2 pair on that board most of the time they lead. That should also be their bluff size. So they can make a clean fold with the 2 pair hands. They did not.

Highly skilled or poorly skilled that bet size seems to be weighted to nuts. If we know the weighting is to the nuts with some non nut hands we are very happy to just call with 99.


Thanks again for sharing your thoughts. You really made me dive deep into what I should be thinking in this spot. Hopefully you find value in some of my thoughts.

Hope this helps

 

[Nr98]

The raise preflop is fine and pretty standard - the red flag for me is the SB calls our raise off of a 19bb stack. Not only should the SB flatting range be much stronger than the BBs, but unless they are a bad player they should never be just flatting a raise OOP vs a potential 2 opponents with only 19bb to start the hand...so big red flag for me.

BB completing is normal - flop comes down A hi - this is where I usually go with the check. Heads up vs the BBs range - we can cbet this board all day everyday with our entire range - BUT as I eluded to earlier - when the SB comes along they should have quite a bit of Ax in their flatting range and checking to us is a standard play.

For those reasons I dont want to get check/raised by the SB, nor do I want to value town myself vs an Ace. So I tend to check this flop back and call a bet on practically every possible turn card.

When we bet flop and get a call from the BB the turn card brings in some straight draws, possible 2 pair combos and 1pr+ draw combos they could have. Point is we have no idea where we now stand in this hand and have to check turn almost always. If we bet and get raised here I think we HAVE to fold. No hand we currently beat is going take that line on the turn.

The river is both good and bad for us on soooooo many levels. We hit our set which means we have out drawn Ax, 2 pair combos and the unlikely smaller sets. The bad news is now we have such a strong hand we really cant fold to any big bets the BB may put into us and their range contains pretty much alllll of the 7x hands that could be playing this board.

In short - we are now too strong to fold BUT we are not strong enough to raise. When we do raise here we are pretty much ONLY getting called by the straight and we are taking ourselves to value town.

Summary - check back flop vs 2 opponents especially with the short SB in the hand. Call all reasonable turn bets - call the river bet - DO not raise!

As played - after betting flop - check turn and call river. Dont bloat the pot without the nuts or 2nd nuts

I think flop bet is probably mandatory. We want to be betting an Ace high board with quite a big part of our range here, and our hand benefits a lot from protection (especially 3 way). Also with regards to Small blinds flatting range, he should have weak suited Aces, ATo, some AA, mid suited connectors, and some weaker suited Kings/Queens. There is quite a lot in this range that we could fold out if we chose to dubbel barrel and turn our 99 into a bluff.

As for the last part, I completely agree with you. Even though OP points out correctly that BB should have quite a few two pair hands, Ax etc., I feel like he's missing a crucial part. To consider a value raise, we need to compare our hand to Villain's calling range not his betting range. If we beat more than 50% of his calling range, our raise is a solid value raise.

In short, we should not only ask the question: "what is Villain's betting range here and how does our hand compare to that?", but most importantly "What range would Villain call our raise with, and do we beat this?".

Hope this helps in a future spot like this

 

[300HPGOD]

When I see a small bet like that on the river it means 1 of 2 things imo. Either the opponent is using it as a blocker bet to see a cheap showdown or they are trying to induce a raise. Turns out it was the ladder but not sure why he did not re-raise. However, your question was about your river play and I dont see anything wrong with it. I think some thought has to go into if he is using it as a blocker bet he would not call a raise. He could also could be betting that amount thinking two pair is better than your range and is using it for you to raise. In the end you have a strong hand and are going to get called by Ax hands that hit two pair. Just unfortunate that the Ax he had led to a straight.

 

[fundiver199]

When I see a small bet like that on the river it means 1 of 2 things imo. Either the opponent is using it as a blocker bet to see a cheap showdown or they are trying to induce a raise. Turns out it was the ladder but not sure why he did not re-raise. However, your question was about your river play and I dont see anything wrong with it. I think some thought has to go into if he is using it as a blocker bet he would not call a raise. He could also could be betting that amount thinking two pair is better than your range and is using it for you to raise. In the end you have a strong hand and are going to get called by Ax hands that hit two pair. Just unfortunate that the Ax he had led to a straight.

I think, the river decision is somewhat close, and it would not be a big mistake to check back. But seeing A7 offsuit does not make me think, this was a bad raise either. If he can have A7 offsuit, he can have many other hands as well, and he is not going to be able to bet-fold those hands, that he is blocker betting. Turns out this time he was inducing or scared to lose his customer. It is, what it is.