$6.50 NLHE STT Turbo: QQ in position against nit

cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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$6.50 NL HE STT Turbo: QQ in position against nit

Villain is break-even reg, is running 7/4/4 up to this point with 25% steal, is 13/11/6 with 32% steal after the session. Both of us doubled up against us early, so we're "deep". Looking for a line check, I don't think I played it too well, I wasn't sure how narrow his range would be. Jamming pre would have been excessive, 3-betting seemed awkward, so I chose to call? Then he c-bet the flop and I jammed, which was better than jamming the flop imo but I was wondering if others thought I'd be turning my hand into a bluff the way I played it.

Full Tilt - $6+$0.50|60/120 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: 3,075.00
Hero (BTN): 2,670.00
SB: 2,025.00
BB: 2,765.00
UTG: 1,380.00
MP: 1,585.00

SB posts SB 60.00, BB posts BB 120.00

Pre Flop: (180.00) Hero has Q:club: Q:spade:

fold, fold, CO raises to 300.00, Hero calls 300.00, fold, fold

Flop: (780.00, 2 players) 6:heart: 9:spade: T:diamond:
CO bets 360.00, Hero raises to 2,370.00 and is all-in
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Seems okay to me. You're offering him 1.7:1 roughly, so its not a huge over-bet. And by waiting for him to c-bet, you got him to put some more money in while his range was weak.

I think I like the way this one played out. Anyone with stats as nitty as 7/4/4 typically will fold anything worse to a 3-bet.
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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How should we play if an A or K flops? Just standard pot control etc.?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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Yeah, that's really where things get sticky. 38% of the time, we're going to flop at least 1 over card without flopping a set. So if we just folded every time that happens, we'd have a fold to c-bet stat of 38%. Seems like that isn't very exploitable, but it also seems like we're wasting some of QQ's value if we flat, and he c-bets with his ultra-wide range.

I might be tempted to call a street if the flop was K high, but A high, I'm just check/folding. I'm also more likely to call a bet if we have backdoor draws. So for example: a K♣ 6♣ 6 flop is better than a K♣ 66 flop when we're holding Q♣ Q♠.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Some poker stove numbers to think about. If we assume his range is 20% of hands when he steals from the CO, here's how our equity looks on various flops:

Board: 6c 6d Ac
40% { 22+, A9s+, A5s-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, 20% of all hands }
60% { QcQs }

Board: 6c 6d Kc
31% { 20% }
69% { QcQs }

Board: 6c 6d Ad
43% { 20% }
57% { QcQs }

Board: Jc 8h 4d
24% { 20% }
76% { QcQs }


As you can see, we gain about 9% equity when we flop a king instead of an ace. We also gain 3% equity when we have a backdoor flush draw. And obviously, when we have an over pair, we're a 3:1 favorite, but not that much stronger than when the board is king high. So if we stack all over pairs, all sets, and we call 1 street of all Kxx flops, we should be doing okay.
 
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cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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Really appreciate the detailed analysis c9. I guess it does make a lot of sense, there's a lot more Ax that he's raising than Kx.

Glad you're not extra grumpy all the time, :p
 
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