$550 NLHE MTT: Grinding it out

[kanselau]

ANZPT event $550
Blinds 400/800 anty 75

8 handed
This is a accumulator torn where chips get bagged up at the end of day 1 and day 2 and combined at start of day 3

The average stack is about 40k
This is the last level of day one.

Table has been quite tight. We have been playing very tight due to being card dead. Our stack is 10k.

Just confirming these are correct folds .
UTG +2 55 is a fold.
UTG AJo is a fold , Is it possible to min raise this / fold to 3 bet .

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

At a tight table, with an M=5.5 I'm probably jamming the pocket 5s. You'll probably fold out 66-88, most likely you'll win the blinds or take a flip as a slight favorite. You could get called by 99+ but that's poker, you're short.

the AJo UTG I might raise it up to between 1,800 and 2000 if I hadn't been playing any hands, I should get credit for a big hand and fold out anything but monsters. If I get re-raised preflop I'll probably have to fold, which is a terrible outcome of course because there went 20% of our stack. It seems to me that risking 20% of our stack to increase our stack by 20% with AJ at a tight table is a reasonable risk.

Also...in these big MTTs people go into survival mode at the end of the day....it almost becomes like a bubble..it's a strange phenomenon when you're still so far from the money and surviving with a short stack isn't very advantageous....For me, I'd rather bust out at the end of day 1 knowing I was being aggressive and taking advantage of a nitty table, and then have the whole next day to do with as I please....see the local tourist sites, sleep in, go to the spa or beach etc...instead of stress all night over my short stack strategyfor tomorrow and second guessing my last few folds....but that's just me. I've made enough day 2s with a short stack and busted out in the first 2 hours the next day....blown my whole day....it's not fun.

 

[kanselau]

At a tight table, with an M=5.5 I'm probably jamming the pocket 5s. You'll probably fold out 66-88, most likely you'll win the blinds or take a flip as a slight favorite. You could get called by 99+ but that's poker, you're short.

the AJo UTG I might raise it up to between 1,800 and 2000 if I hadn't been playing any hands, I should get credit for a big hand and fold out anything but monsters. If I get re-raised preflop I'll probably have to fold, which is a terrible outcome of course because there went 20% of our stack. It seems to me that risking 20% of our stack to increase our stack by 20% with AJ at a tight table is a reasonable risk.

Also...in these big MTTs people go into survival mode at the end of the day....it almost becomes like a bubble..it's a strange phenomenon when you're still so far from the money and surviving with a short stack isn't very advantageous....For me, I'd rather bust out at the end of day 1 knowing I was being aggressive and taking advantage of a nitty table, and then have the whole next day to do with as I please....see the local tourist sites, sleep in, go to the spa or beach etc...instead of stress all night over my short stack strategyfor tomorrow and second guessing my last few folds....but that's just me. I've made enough day 2s with a short stack and busted out in the first 2 hours the next day....blown my whole day....it's not fun.

Thanks for your advise , makes sense to chip up or go home. especially when the big money is weighted towards top 3.

What also plays a role in this is the fact that at this stage blinds are big compared to stacks, there is a couple of really big stacks and everyone else is 20-30 bigs , so we shouldn't feel that short ,as everyone apart from massive stacks is preety much in the same boat.

Also in this torny , 15 players got through from day 1a and 16 from day 1b , so we have 31 starters in day 2 and 12 paid , so by just getting to day 2 we are close to tha money , and things can change very quickly , if cards go our way.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

So, if the average stack is 40k but the median stack is more like ~20k that does change the dynamic somewhat. I don't think 31 left with 12 paid is close enough to the bubble to justify going into Survival mode; But may cause you to pass on the most marginal of opportunities.

The 2 hands you describe are certainly marginal (because of your positiion). But I think in this case table dynamics should outweigh tourney dynamics and if your table is nitty survivors-exploit. There is no benefit to preserving any "table image" you may have had as you'll get a new table draw in day2.... So now is the perfect time to exploit your table and your image and a mini bubble.

Also, there is a good chance your next table will be more aggressive and you'll be starting with a short stack and no reads.

Folding those 2 hands is not a big mistake...just not my preferred play for my style and goals.

How did you end up doing?

 

[kanselau]

So, if the average stack is 40k but the median stack is more like ~20k that does change the dynamic somewhat. I don't think 31 left with 12 paid is close enough to the bubble to justify going into Survival mode; But may cause you to pass on the most marginal of opportunities.

The 2 hands you describe are certainly marginal (because of your positiion). But I think in this case table dynamics should outweigh tourney dynamics and if your table is nitty survivors-exploit. There is no benefit to preserving any "table image" you may have had as you'll get a new table draw in day2.... So now is the perfect time to exploit your table and your image and a mini bubble.

Also, there is a good chance your next table will be more aggressive and you'll be starting with a short stack and no reads.

Folding those 2 hands is not a big mistake...just not my preferred play for my style and goals.

How did you end up doing?

I actually min clicked AJ and folded to 3bet
Folded 55

Got through with 12900
Blinds start 500/1000/100

this is tabledraw
SEAT TABLE 16 Chip Count
1 David Boyd 75,000
2 Tony Aslani 46,700
3 Dean Lindberg 11,500
4 Arthur Phillips 28,100
5 Jimmy Wong 53,400
6 Matt Rynkiewicz 12,900
7 Tim Mitchell 31,800
8 Rod Smith 107,300
9 Ray Ellis 19,400
10 Ash Warner 49,300

So obviously a double up would be nice but even with 10 blinds I think we have a fair bit of fold equity.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

Oh sweet! You're still in? Is day 2 tomorrow?(Monday?)

What is the event? Is there a live feed or blog to rail you on?

Best of luck with your stack and table draw... At least you're not the shortest...

Also, to clarify I would probably only play 1 of the 2 hands you described unless they are separated by 2+ orbits. If i play and survive the 55, I'll muck the AJ... If I muck the 55 I've gotta play the AJ. Mucking both is too weak, tight IMO.. You did just fine!

Also, I'm confused if there are 31 players left why are you at a 10 handed table?
Am I missing something?

 

[kanselau]

Oh sweet! You're still in? Is day 2 tomorrow?(Monday?)

What is the event? Is there a live feed or blog to rail you on?

Best of luck with your stack and table draw... At least you're not the shortest...

Also, to clarify I would probably only play 1 of the 2 hands you described unless they are separated by 2+ orbits. If i play and survive the 55, I'll muck the AJ... If I muck the 55 I've gotta play the AJ. Mucking both is too weak, tight IMO.. You did just fine!

Also, I'm confused if there are 31 players left why are you at a 10 handed table?
Am I missing something?

My mistake there was 29 runners left today.
The tornament was $550 accumulator. ANZPT perth

Got off to a great start managed to get a walk first hand and stole some blinds. Got stack to 16k blinds at 600/1200/100
Then this hand comes up: UTG KK so we raise it up 2800
folds around to BB who completes.
Flop (7200) 7 8 J rainbow
BB checks we make it 3500 and BB raises 8000 ?

Villain is quite a solid Reg , I think this is a fold , check raise is mega strong in this situation and I cant really see villain doing this without 2 pair at least .

Whats your thoughts ?

Still have $1100 6max
$2200 main event to play so if your interested in railing add me as friend on facebook . matteo pizlar

 

[duggs]

where a bouts was this event?

 

[Shufflin]

Fine with both OP folds

 

[kanselau]

where a bouts was this event?

perth western australia

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

My mistake there was 29 runners left today.
The tornament was $550 accumulator. ANZPT perth

Got off to a great start managed to get a walk first hand and stole some blinds. Got stack to 16k blinds at 600/1200/100
Then this hand comes up: UTG KK so we raise it up 2800
folds around to BB who completes.
Flop (7200) 7 8 J rainbow
BB checks we make it 3500 and BB raises 8000 ?

Villain is quite a solid Reg , I think this is a fold , check raise is mega strong in this situation and I cant really see villain doing this without 2 pair at least .

Whats your thoughts ?

Still have $1100 6max
$2200 main event to play so if your interested in railing add me as friend on facebook . matteo pizlar

I don't think I'm a good enough player to fold KK on this board. not because I can't fold KK post flop, but because of our stack size. At this point we've got 40% of our chips in the pot with the 2nd best possible starting hand and an overpair to the board.

Yes, the check raise is strong. but doesn't mean you are necessarily beat. Surely he could have J8 for 2 pair, 9T for a straight (though he might play it slower). A set of Jacks or 8s is not as likely as they might have 3bet preflop (and also it's hard to flop a set.)
An overpair is unlikely as they would have 3bet you preflop. I also think AJ, KJ and JT or J9 (top pair with a straight draw) are likely.

So, if we think that he has:
J8 30% of the time our equity is 25% (X0.30) = 7.5
J9 or JT 20% of the tim our equity is 65% (x 0.20) = 13
AJ 20% of the time our equity is 78.2% (x0.20) = 15.6
KJ 10% of the time our equity is 90% (x 0.10) = 9
a monster like a straight or set 10% of the time our equity is roughly 5% (x.10) = 0.50
wacky bluff or weaker hand 10% of the time our equity is about 80% (x 0.10) = 8

So total equity vs this perceived range is 53.6%

pot contains 18,700 already and we have 9,700 behind.

It costs us just 4,500 to call which gives us 4:1 pot odds on a call...but of course we'd never just call here. it's a ship or fold spot for sure.

If we ship he'll have to call with everything except his bluffs so we can basically consider those chips already in the pot making the "potential total pot" about 28,000 before we ship...so we're getting pot odds of basically 3:1 on our ship...meaning we only have to believe we can win by the river 25% of the time. Even if he has exactly J8 our equity is 25%

Maybe I'm being too generous. Maybe you're more positive that he has 2 pair or better. For me, I think J8 makes just as much sense as J9 or JT.

If we have at least 25-30% equity vs. his perceived range, I think we have to close our eyes and shove with KK and hope for the best.

 

[kanselau]

I don't think I'm a good enough player to fold KK on this board. not because I can't fold KK post flop, but because of our stack size. At this point we've got 40% of our chips in the pot with the 2nd best possible starting hand and an overpair to the board.

Yes, the check raise is strong. but doesn't mean you are necessarily beat. Surely he could have J8 for 2 pair, 9T for a straight (though he might play it slower). A set of Jacks or 8s is not as likely as they might have 3bet preflop (and also it's hard to flop a set.)
An overpair is unlikely as they would have 3bet you preflop. I also think AJ, KJ and JT or J9 (top pair with a straight draw) are likely.

So, if we think that he has:
J8 30% of the time our equity is 25% (X0.30) = 7.5
J9 or JT 20% of the tim our equity is 65% (x 0.20) = 13
AJ 20% of the time our equity is 78.2% (x0.20) = 15.6
KJ 10% of the time our equity is 90% (x 0.10) = 9
a monster like a straight or set 10% of the time our equity is roughly 5% (x.10) = 0.50
wacky bluff or weaker hand 10% of the time our equity is about 80% (x 0.10) = 8

So total equity vs this perceived range is 53.6%

pot contains 18,700 already and we have 9,700 behind.

It costs us just 4,500 to call which gives us 4:1 pot odds on a call...but of course we'd never just call here. it's a ship or fold spot for sure.

If we ship he'll have to call with everything except his bluffs so we can basically consider those chips already in the pot making the "potential total pot" about 28,000 before we ship...so we're getting pot odds of basically 3:1 on our ship...meaning we only have to believe we can win by the river 25% of the time. Even if he has exactly J8 our equity is 25%

Maybe I'm being too generous. Maybe you're more positive that he has 2 pair or better. For me, I think J8 makes just as much sense as J9 or JT.

If we have at least 25-30% equity vs. his perceived range, I think we have to close our eyes and shove with KK and hope for the best.

Wow thanks for the time in putting this post together some thought put into this.
Obviously im not good enough to fold this either.

One thing I probably should mention that is very important, is that villain has a stack of aprox 45k.
His stack size and the fact that he is a decent reg suggests that he is not looking to spew 1/3 of his stack in a marginal situation.
Because we are UTG and have a small stack , villain has to put us on a strong range. JJ+ AK . If this is true anything less than 2 pair becomes a marginal spot for villain.

I think we should be looking at the distribution more like
AJ 20% (I don't think he calls KJ because of reverse implied odds).
Two pair 30% of the time
Pair and straight draw 20%
Set / straight 30%
I know you cant say never , but I don't think a decent reg is ever spazzing out in this spot on some wild bluff.


I think the information that we have :
villain is a good player,
villain knows that we are a reg and not some random banana,
the size of the stacks
and the action of UTG with 10BB opens for 2.5 bb then fires flop committing to the pot = Strong line.
Suggests this could be -EV.

But it was hard for me to fold this , I like tanked for 5 min at least.

Would like to here what some of the better players think of this ?
Can anyone fold this.?

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

Did you fold it?

If I may derail, I'll tell you a story.

wsop event 2013 early on day 1

Player A has 1.5 x of avg stack and is TAG, good player
Player B has avg stack and is right passive
Me I have 2x avg stack

So, we're all deep stacked.

Player A raises 2.5bb from early pos
Player B flat calls
I have KK on button and I make it 9bb
Player A thinks then makes it 18bb
Player B tanks then calls
I decide to flat. I put player A on QQ+ or possibly AK, but in really leaning toward aces here. I put player B on a similar range that maybe includes JJ or AQ

Flop comes QJ8 rainbow

Player A leads out for half the pot.

Player B tank-folds. Must've had AK

I tank fold my KK because everything I can put player A on has me beat.

Player A announces "I had it". And shows AQs!!!

I actually think I made a good lay down there, I was just wrong that time. So what is my point? You can NEVER really discount a hand from a players range, especially if it makes sense given the action. I had enough chips to fold and still be above average.

So, while I agree with you that KJ is unlikely, it is probably about as unlikely as 9T.... Or in my example, player A having the AQ.

 

[Arjonius]

So, we're all deep stacked..

How deep? This seems like it may be a situation where this can make a difference.

 

[duggs]

dude just because someone turned up with something stupid doesn't mean we can't completely discount it, some players will only have QQ there but that mean we discount AA?

after the fact we adjust our reads and go from there.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

How deep? This seems like it may be a situation where this can make a difference.

It was a while ago, but from memory id guess I had 70bb and playerA had around 50bb