$.55 NLHE MTT Rebuy: ICM -- did I make a mistake? How do I calculate to find out?

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Caissa

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I'm playing in a $.55 multi-table sit n go, three left at the final table.

Payouts:


1st $6.29 2nd $4.29 3rd $3.12


BB=1
SB=0.5
Ante=0.1

Button (Villain) 28.73 BB
SB (Hero) 17.42 BB
BB 5.84 BB

Button limps
Hero dealt QQ

Assume Villain limps ATC, what's his optimal calling range for a shove by Hero.

Can hero just complete here? Then what if BB shoves? ACR is not "action only"

How can I find Villains calling range and calculate $EV for shoving. Can I afford to complete and fold the flop?

Thanks
 
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fundiver199

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Not raising QQ against a BTN limp would be insanely tight, and you would be leaving a ton of money on the table. With this pay structure, and generally when its down to 3, your goal is to win the tournament, and picking up QQ is a great opportunity to grab an overwhelming chiplead, if you can get it in against BTN. You could simply jam over his limp, but the other option is to make it 4 or 4,5BB and hope, if puts it in himself or at least call. If he only call, they you are obviously hoping for a board with no A or K, and if you get that, postflop is a very easy stack off situation as well.
 
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Caissa

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Thanks. That's pretty much what I thought but I still really want to see the math.
 
toots babos

toots babos

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Jam pre knowing you're massively ahead of buttons range, which is also putting massive pressure on the shortstack.
 
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fundiver199

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How can I find Villains calling range and calculate $EV for shoving.

Using the program ICMizer. To simplify things a bit I just used a standard 9 man SnG, where the pricepool is split 50/30/20, which is close enough to the actual payouts in this event. Then I plugged in the stack sizes and action and pressed "ICMize". ICMizer now calculate the NASH equilibrium, which is the ranges for all players, where noone is winning or losing. This is often referred to as GTO ranges.

Now there are some caveats in this, mainly that ICMizer cant calculate spilt ranges. It assume, that when BTN limp, he either limp or fold, so he has no raising range. It then also assume, that SB either move all in or fold, so again no completing range. And finally it assume, that BB either knock his option or move all in, which in this case is pretty much also his only options. The program then runs a simulation, until equilibrium is reached. These are the ranges, ICMizer came up with:

BTN limping: 40% of hands
SB (Hero) jamming: 17% of hands (any pair, AT+, KQ, QJ, A7s+, A3s-A5s, T9s+)
BTN calling SB jam: 7,6% of hands (77+, AJ+, ATs)

Expected EV for Hero of jamming QQ: 3,54% of the price pool

Personally I would jam here, because its just so easy, and its massively profitable. Raising small creates an extremely awkward spot, if a K or A comes on the flop, and I would rather avoid that spot. Most of the time they are both going to fold, and thats totally fine. You chip up, and now the short stack only have 5BB left, so he is a fairly significant step closer to being out of there in third place.

Around one in five times BTN will call you, if he is playing optimally (very unlikely given the stakes but lets just go with that assumption), and then you get it in with 63% equity. Which is totally fine even with ICM implications. Yes it sucks, when you bust and give the short stack a free payjump, but it happen so rarely, that its not a reason to do anything other than jam preflop. The hands, you can select to just complete, are the marginal ones in the suggested range like suited rag aces, low suited connectors and QJ. With QQ and frankly a lot of other hands its an easy jam.
 
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Caissa

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Thank you. That's exactly what I was looking for.
 
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