Hi there,

I have never done a hand analysis before so wanted to start with something simple. I feel I should call with my 99 here but I want some reassurance .

It was a while ago but I believe this was early-mid MTT and ICM was not a factor. Blinds 300/600. I was 23bb deep.

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/524CuKyGH

Thanks in advance

Assuming that we are still a ways away from cashing, and there is no ICM, then I would say its good to call here. Certainly would help to have some read on villain since its over a 20bb shove so he shouldn't be too light. But if you think he can have hands like AK, AQ, maybe AJs, and even some worse pairs like 77, 88, than you should have enough equity to call here vs his entire range.

You raised 3.5X. What was your reason for raising so large? Normally I raise 2.5X @ 35BB. If 3.5X is your typical raise at this point in the tournament, then fine.

Now Button comes over the top with a 5X 3bet, going all in. With this little information, you need to decide if he is trying to isolate or has a monster. In micro stakes mtt, there is no way of knowing the villain's hand, but I think we can put him on AJ+ and 66+ at least. This range puts you under 50%, but you are putting 13.500 in to win 21,000 (putting win odds needed at 40%).

I have been on both sides of this call/fold. I have kicked myself for the wrong decision both ways, when really there is no right answer. The real choice is whether having 42,000 chips is worth gambling being down to 8000 at this point in the tourney.

Not knowing how you are doing in the overall tournament means I can't answer for you. It appears you are doing well at this table, so why risk your tournament life on a middle pair?

I dont like the pre flop sizing. 2.5x would do the same as far as deterring calls plus you can walk away from it easier if something like this should happen. I personally would not call here since I would put the villain (without any specific read) at 88+ and 10 plus. So every hand except 88 we are flipping to the good (55 v 45 ish) or we are crushed by a larger pair. Considering that we are still decently deep here at 40 BB, I dont like putting it all in here on what is most likely a flip and could be something a lot worse. If we are at roughly 20 BBs or less I would snap call but at 40 BB it seems like too much to be putting in given the we are never really crushing him except the 88 assuming I am ranging him correctly. Better to just fold but the take away I would focus on for this hand is pre flop raise sizing.

As others have said your preflop size is to large especially for this stack size. In a fishy field like a 50c tournament should be, 3,5BB can be ok in the first blind levels, but later you should size down. I am ok calling off a jam with 99, but it is somewhat close. I probably fold 88 or worse.

For me, it was very close. Unless he was fish, I will call. Normally I will fold here because calling 25bb with 99 is not worthy when your stack is just 40bb. I don't think standard opponents will shove here with 88-22 mostly they will call than shove especially they have the position. In other cases, you just gamble your 99 with TT+ or AK, AQs+. I feel that's not worthy in early mid tournament.

Again like the others have said pre raise to big and unless you have reads on the shove its a fold for me most times

Min raise pre.

You would have been able to fold easier to the action that followed a proper sized open.

Even as played, I'm folding 99 here. Conserve your chips for a better spot. You were likely to get much better spots in an MTT with a field like that!

Hi everyone,

thanks for all your comments. I see from many different comments it is not as certain a call as I thought it was, so I will have to look into this more. Thanks to fundiver for putting in the range he would be calling, I think in my future hand analysis this will be something I should ask, ie, what range should I call here, rather than is 99 a good call.

I was particularly interested in the comments about my preflop sizing so I have given it some thought.

In general, I am using a larger sizing from OOP, 3.5, then 3 from MP and 2.5 from CO/BU.

In this case I do raise larger with mid pairs than small pairs or monster hands, so adjust 3 for mid position to 3.5. Also, I have already decided that I am calling any all in before I do this raise because I have everyone covered, except the HJ I should fold to, so am not worried about folding and losing the chips.

Any more comments on this bet size appreciated!

Yes you can call all-in from the LJ against the button and the CU, with 99, it is a good call. Now you must do it again!

Originally Posted by bigredwolf

Hi there,

I have never done a hand analysis before so wanted to start with something simple. I feel I should call with my 99 here but I want some reassurance .

It was a while ago but I believe this was early-mid MTT and ICM was not a factor. Blinds 300/600. I was 23bb deep.

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/524CuKyGH

Thanks in advance

I dont think it s a good call for 25bb because the best show for you is coin flip and everything else you are way behind.For better understanding I ll advice you to use ICIMIZER to calculate your push fold decisions,GL mate

Originally Posted by VovanBaron

I dont think it s a good call for 25bb because the best show for you is coin flip and everything else you are way behind.

That is only true, if Villain has no bluffs in his range. 99 is ahead of hands like 66-88, A2s-A8s and maybe even some suited connectors, that Villain could be jamming as a bluff. But sure if we know, that Villain is an unbalanced nit, who only ever 3-bet for value, then 99 is an easy fold.

Originally Posted by fundiver199

That is only true, if Villain has no bluffs in his range. 99 is ahead of hands like 66-88, A2s-A8s and maybe even some suited connectors, that Villain could be jamming as a bluff. But sure if we know, that Villain is an unbalanced nit, who only ever 3-bet for value, then 99 is an easy fold.

Only got 30 hands on villain, even so seems very loose at 34/20,definitely not a nit, but that is great perspective for future decision making.

Thanks again fundiver!

You should think about your actions in the event of a re-raise before you raise in this position. 5 players were after you. You probably didn't fold because you put too much into this pot. It's time to look at your cards and understand. Are you willing to risk a large portion of your stack with 99 when the flop isn't even open. You could have played more comfortably without taking any risks.

Originally Posted by bigredwolf

Only got 30 hands on villain, even so seems very loose at 34/20,definitely not a nit, but that is great perspective for future decision making.

Against someone with those stats I think, you made the right decision to call. You just happened to run into the top of his range this time.

Originally Posted by Vallet

You should think about your actions in the event of a re-raise before you raise in this position. 5 players were after you. You probably didn't fold because you put too much into this pot. It's time to look at your cards and understand. Are you willing to risk a large portion of your stack with 99 when the flop isn't even open. You could have played more comfortably without taking any risks.

I had already thought of the actions before betting and I was only folding if CO went all in.

Short and sweet.

Preflop sizing is way too large of an open off of your stack size - should be going 2 - 2.2x here - secondly 99s are simply too strong to fold here. Plug it into whatever program you want - snap call. This is just a cooler. Realize this and move on

I don't like this size PF.

And I would not call after the all in. The best you can find there would be a coin flip, probably. I think you can wait for better opportunities to increase your stack.

Originally Posted by Jon Poker

Short and sweet.

Preflop sizing is way too large of an open off of your stack size - should be going 2 - 2.2x here - secondly 99s are simply too strong to fold here. Plug it into whatever program you want - snap call. This is just a cooler. Realize this and move on

I not sure why you do not like the preflop sizing. Could you explain a little more on this?

Surely if the hand is that strong I want more chips in the middle. Especially as you say, this is too strong to fold, I want to discourage getting more than one caller. This is my reasoning for bigger size.

Thanks,

Big Red

Originally Posted by bigredwolf

I not sure why you do not like the preflop sizing. Could you explain a little more on this?

Surely if the hand is that strong I want more chips in the middle. Especially as you say, this is too strong to fold, I want to discourage getting more than one caller. This is my reasoning for bigger size.

Thanks,

Big Red

When we start deviating away from normal bet sizing we are basically flipping our hand strength face up. If your normal sizing has been 2.5 for the past 40 hands and all of a sudden I see you go 3.5 - I'm going to tighten my range and fold out much more than I originally would. When you make bet sizes relative to the strength of your hand - it makes you exploitable in a sense that good players will not give you action and tho you will win the blinds and antes - you will not be winning bigger pots than that too often and thus you are not accumulating chips.


Preflop raise sizes should be based upon stack depths and should not be changed with hand strengths. If we are raising the same amount with 56s as we are with AA our opponents will never honestly know how strong we are preflop.

These are my own personal preferences for preflop raise sizings so take them with a grain of salt for what they are.

Stack depth -- raise sizing

250bb+ -- 4x
100-200bb -- 3x - 3.5x
50-100bb -- 2.5x
50bb or less -- 2.1x or 2.2x depending on ante sizing.


As I eluded to earlier - keeping our pfr sizing consistent allows us to open our entire range without opponents being aware which portion we are opening - so without villans knowing how strong our hand is, we become much less exploitable.

The second portion of proper bet sizing is that when we get squeezed, 3bet and 4bet - and we have to fold we simply lose less. If we never change and go 3x all game long - well it hurts us alot to 3x off of 20bb and then have to fold...by doing that we raise/fold off roughly 16% of our stack and thats not good. We can't always avoid these spots where we get squeezed and have to fold - but we can minimize the damage with proper bet sizing.

Also as I talked about earlier - when we do raise bigger than usual out of the blue - good players are going to fold some hands preflop they may play against us and will only start calling us with the top of their ranges - so while thinking we are making the correct play here, building a bigger pot with a strong hand - we are forcing our good opponents to only call us with their strongest hands - so we really don't get value from much and we force ourselves to play the strongest parts of their range...this is NEVER going to be the ideal situation.

Anyhow, by raising bigger than normal preflop, you will fold out the bottom parts of our good opponents ranges forcing yourself to play vs the top of their range much more often - and because of this they are going to fold preflop much more often - and because of that increased preflop fold we win a much smaller pot of roughly 2.5bb with antes in play - when we could raise normally preflop - get called, see a flop, cbet and take it down 65-70% of the time to win a 6bb pot.

I hope this is making sense to you. Realize that bad villans will never change and thats why they are bad at the game - so don't focus on what.they do. You want to beat the guys who are good at this game so you can become better than them. So remember, bad players will always make poor choices.

Meanwhile, the good opponents will exploit you when you are changing bet sizing preflop - you will take down many more small pots than you will larger pots and when you do see flops you will most likely be playing the best (top) parts of your villans ranges. Once again - in this specific hand example, even with proper sizing there is no way you dont call off the shove here - your stack is too short and your hand is too strong. Running into an overpair is simply a cooler.

As a final note to this response - we want to have a good solid foundation to our strategy in this game. Understanding table position, preflop ranges and bet sizing is a big portion of this - if you can button these areas up you will surely see some better results and be able to add more to your game.

Originally Posted by Vallet

You should think about your actions in the event of a re-raise before you raise in this position. 5 players were after you. You probably didn't fold because you put too much into this pot. It's time to look at your cards and understand. Are you willing to risk a large portion of your stack with 99 when the flop isn't even open. You could have played more comfortably without taking any risks.

I agree with Vallet on this.
In addition when you get 2 calls behind you, chances are someone is going to hit the flop with a bigger pair than you have.