$55 NLHE Deep Stacked: $$55 NLHE Deep Stacked: 10-10 on button w/ utg raise

[Debi]

$55 NL HE Deep Stacked: $$55 NL HE Deep Stacked: 10-10 on button w/ utg raise

This guy is not overly aggressive and still had 20xbb. His range was not huge imo - high pocket pairs or AK. If that is what I truly believe then I know I have to fold here. But he bet $500 - which I know was only $50 more than 3xbb - but it told me in my gut he had AK. So my question is this. If you were in this position and knew he had AK - what would you do pre-flop?

pokerstars Game #30945514908: Tournament #181768135, $50+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2009/07/27 16:18:04 ET
Table '181768135 12' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: ImaLucSac (6098 in chips)
Seat 2: epicondyle57 (2050 in chips)
Seat 3: Drink N Fish (8707 in chips)
Seat 4: dakota-xx (5375 in chips)
Seat 5: formoso1908 (1378 in chips)
Seat 6: Jeebus__666 (4078 in chips)
Seat 7: Viking Phil (3745 in chips)
Seat 8: J_soldier (20632 in chips)
Seat 9: 3f dk (3110 in chips)
formoso1908: posts small blind 75
Jeebus__666: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dakota-xx [Td Ts]
Viking Phil: raises 350 to 500
J_soldier has timed out
J_soldier: folds
J_soldier is sitting out
3f dk: folds
ImaLucSac: folds
J_soldier has returned
epicondyle57: folds
Drink N Fish: folds
dakota-xx: ???

 

[NineLions]

If you're pretty sure it's AK, what are you going to do on a Q/J or low flop?

You've got position, so assuming the blinds fold (depending on your reads on them), that's what I'd be thinking about. Early position raise from someone who is not aggressive I lean toward flatting, with a plan for playing a dry flop.

But, I've been playing a lot of cash and not tourney lately, so take that advice in context.

 

[NineLions]

btw, I just watched you flat AQ from late against an early position limp? What's your plan with that one?

 

[Debi]

haha - was gonna post that hand next.

 

[NineLions]

btw, nice flop shove with the flush draw; I'm getting a bit off topic here.

 

[Debi]

Yea that was sweet.

 

[Debi]

btw, I just watched you flat AQ from late against an early position limp? What's your plan with that one?

To hit a straight on the river?

 

[Irexes]

If you know he has Ak then it's a shove. As it is I probably flat the raise and hope for a useful flop.

 

[Egon Towst]

If you know he has Ak then it's a shove.

Why, Rex ? That puts you in a coinflip. If you flat call and the flop holds no Ace or King, you take it away from him on the flop.

The first line wins roughly half the time, but the second wins roughly 65% of the time (ie. whenever the flop includes no Ace or King).

I think that`s right. I`d calculate it more precisely, but I am in a game at the mo`.

All of that of course assumes that we know he has AK.

 

[pantin007]

this is a flat, his range is obv a lot more than just AK so we shouldnt assume that its always AK

 

[Egon Towst]

his range is obv a lot more than just AK so we shouldnt assume that its always AK

Quite true, but Debi`s question was:-

If you were in this position and knew he had AK - what would you do pre-flop?

 

[ABorges]

Never ever flat here. You're gonna be calling 500 and he has 3000 behind, that's very bad especially if you're gonna give up a ton of flops with overs. Also, no way he folds AQ, 88+ and even AJ. You're effectively short enough, you're good against his range and have a little fold equity to go with it. Shove>fold>call.

 

[pantin007]

well if he has AK, this early-mid stage in the tourny im willing to gamble on 55/45s so i probably try to get it in

 

[Egon Towst]

well if he has AK, this early-mid stage in the tourny im willing to gamble on 55/45s so i probably try to get it in

I`ll ask you the same question I asked Rex.

If we know for sure he has AK, surely it`s better to call, for the reasons I outlined above ? We don`t need to gamble, because we will know on the flop whether we are ahead or behind.

 

[pantin007]

yeah but when we are ahead on the flop, unless he is spewing/bluffing we get no value

 

[Irexes]

I guess if I know his cards I can play perfectly on the flop, so calling not only gives the chance to take it when he misses, but also to induce some bluffs and value bet.

So fair enough call.

However to look at it from a slightly different perspective based on a range rather than a specific two cards, then I'd take the 55/45 here for a really nice stack, when losing doesn't mean busto and so still provides some $ equity.

However, the reality is that we can't put him on a range that is a flip, we have to put pairs in there as well. So I call this some of the time and raise it some of the time and more occassionally I fold it. But unless this is the first hand at the table there's some context that helps inform the decision so it's hard to say exactly.

If I'm pushed and it was first hand at the table with no reads then I probably call and look to see what the flop brings with him first to act.

 

[Debi]

I am enjoying this discussion so carry on!

Just want to add that I plan on final tabling this game.

 

[Stick66]

Never ever flat here. You're gonna be calling 500 and he has 3000 behind, that's very bad especially if you're gonna give up a ton of flops with overs. Also, no way he folds AQ, 88+ and even AJ. You're effectively short enough, you're good against his range and have a little fold equity to go with it. Shove>fold>call.

This. ^^^

(I'm gonna skip the "If you knew he had AK..." part of this since I learned a long time ago that reads are never 100%.)

My first instinct was to call and setmine. But A-Borg has a point. He doesn't have a big enough stack to warrant a call (aka implied odds) since that would be your reward for your risk. Though a fold is not too terrible as it protects your stack, a shove not only puts him to a decision for his stack, but it gives you a chance to win the pot right there (aka fold equity). Sure, you flip 57/42 against AK, AQ, & AJ and you're a big dog against AA, KK, QQ, & JJ. But you're the big fave against 22-99 and AT & less.

So based on all that and considering stack sizes (1/10th of your stack to call, etc.), I think your hand VS his range plus the possibilty that he folds outweigh the odds of being beaten or outdrawn. Shove 1st, fold 2nd, imo.

P.S., We've all had a while to think about this hand. I would definitely find it hard to make this kind of decision correctly during a hand as it is happening. Practice, I guess.

 

[Egon Towst]

I can see I will have to calculate this out (all based on the knowledge that he has AK, let`s call it Ace of Clubs and King of Diamonds).

First Line of Play - we shove all-in. Let`s assume that he calls 100% of the time (fair assumption, I think).

56% of the time, we win 3970
43% of the time, we lose 3745
1% of the time, the pot is split.

Therefore, we expect to win on average ((3970*56)-(3745*43))/100, which equals 613.

Second Line of Play - we call for 500. For the sake of simplicity, let`s assume that we always fold to his bet if the flop contains an Ace or King but no Ten, meaning that:

34% of the time, we lose 500.

.. but that, on any other flop, we raise all-in. Let`s further suppose (in order to give a number to feed into my calculation, that he will fold to our raise 2 times out of 3, but will assume we are bluffing and call the third time. This means that:

44% of the time, we win 725.
17% of the time, we win 3970.
5% of the time, we lose to a suckout on turn/river and lose 3745.

Therefore, we expect to win on average ((725*44)+(3970*17)-(500*34)-(3745*5))/100, which equals 636.

So, it follows that it is better to flat call.

Of course, this assumes we know for sure he has AK, which is not a very realistic scenario but it was the question. Some of you are answering some other question, if I may say so.

Edit: Sorry, I was a long time working that out while also playing, and I see that you have mostly conceded the point in the meantime anyway, thus making all my work redundant, lol.

 

[Irexes]

1 time out 3 he's calling a shove with A high?

Given how tight your margin is there egon, I'm querying that

Though I do think you could extract some value if you knew what his cards were depending on the flop.

 

[Egon Towst]

1 time out 3 he's calling a shove with A high?

Given how tight your margin is there egon, I'm querying that

Fair point. It`s more marginal when I calculate it than I would have thought from my initial guesstimate.

I tell you what though, m8. I think we might have reassured some of the worriers that there are still folk here who can do HA. Whaddya think ? :laugh:

 

[Debi]

I did post the hand because I wanted to know what you guys would do with 10-10 against AK in this situation.

However the discussion of what to do not knowing what he has (which of course we could never know for sure) is very good too.

(I failed in this tournament - 104th of 1817 - but did get a $141 consolation prize)

 

[Stick66]

(I cashed in this tournament - 104th of 1817 - got a $141 payout)

FYP. Think positively, imo.

 

[NineLions]

My first instinct was to call and setmine. But A-Borg has a point. He doesn't have a big enough stack to warrant a call (aka implied odds) since that would be your reward for your risk.

TT, and especially this far into a tourney when the stack/blind ratio gets small, TT is for more than just setmining, imo. In some ways it's like flatting TT to a 3 bet preflop in a cash game where the effective stack/pot ratio shrinks.

With position JJ/TT is nice to play postflop, looking for a fairly dry flop or indications of weakness from the opponent so we can take the pot away either on the flop or the turn. It often has showdown value as well.

If you play it here just for a setmine, then I think it's a fold.

 

[Debi]

FYP. Think positively, imo.

Well I had just watched a Matt Matros video at Stox where he said you should consider it a fail if you don't finish in the top 3.

I am going to give myself a little more leeway and say final table lol. But not gonna cry about an almost 2.6 BI win when it was a $55 entry.