$55 NL HE MTT: Insane fold on bubble?

[Rajten]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

55

Currency

$

We are 330/879 368 places paid

Almost all stacks near 25bb on table, only one chip leader on LJ 76bb

UTG 2 all in (0,3bb), LJ raises to 3bb, 4x folds, hero (27bb) AcJd, calls

Flop (Ad 5s Qc) 7,8bb

2x checks

Turn 9s

hero bets 4,9bb, villain calls

River 9h (pot 17,6bb)

hero bets 9bb (10bb remaining), villain raises all in, hero?

Its crazy hand, villain represents 1 combination of quads, 3x QQ, 3x 55( I am not sure is he really play 55 in this situation) 1x 99, and mayby some 9x, but I am not sure is he opening in this situation any one, he can also have some Ak, AQ, which he decided to slow play (not sure is he raising it on river) What do you do on river? Mayby I should check call and catch his bluffs, mayby smaller bet size? I am looking forward to your opinions.

 

[Andyreas]

I'm happy to give my five cents but I don't play those high buyin tourneys, so see it with that warning sign, lol.

What'sour position in the hand? Why didn't you bet the flop after hitting top pair?

Your bet of half the pot on river is quite high since your hand did not improve but has more hands that beat it by revealing another 9.

His shove is definitely weird. As LJ he could surely be having something like T9 for example.

He could also have something like JT and missed his straight and it's a bluff.

But it would be a shame to bust on the bubble, so I would fold here.

 

[puzzlefish]

Don't forget AA as well. Played like a slow played set. It's a ridiculous spot and I think at the least you are up against AQ or better. AJ is just not a good enough bluff catcher here. It is a fold for me and, given the passive line taken through the turn I would have checked down the river instead of betting.

 

[eetenor]

We are 330/879 368 places paid

Almost all stacks near 25bb on table, only one chip leader on LJ 76bb

UTG 2 all in (0,3bb), LJ raises to 3bb, 4x folds, hero (27bb) AcJd, calls

Flop (Ad 5s Qc) 7,8bb

2x checks

Turn 9s

hero bets 4,9bb, villain calls

River 9h (pot 17,6bb)

hero bets 9bb (10bb remaining), villain raises all in, hero?

Its crazy hand, villain represents 1 combination of quads, 3x QQ, 3x 55( I am not sure is he really play 55 in this situation) 1x 99, and mayby some 9x, but I am not sure is he opening in this situation any one, he can also have some Ak, AQ, which he decided to slow play (not sure is he raising it on river) What do you do on river? Mayby I should check call and catch his bluffs, mayby smaller bet size? I am looking forward to your opinions.

One point as you decide on a call here is---- All weaker AX is a tie-if V has Qx and thinks u do all Qx is a tie- Some players will shove a tie in this spot hoping for a fold------the V may also shove an AX thinking you have QX thinking you do not have AK ----most likely a standard player has the slow play here based on the fact you only have 10bb left---it would be a very clever player that thinks you fold your last 10bb

 

[85champ07]

I have been in this spot. Feeling hopeful when you hit your Ace on the flop, but in the end you only have 2 pair, weak, can't continue in many cases. My guess is villian has A5, then ended up counterfeited with higher 2 pair on the river. Villian had 3x the chips on the table so they may have been just pushing you around, not beleiving you had the Ace. it would have been best to push all in after the turn card instead of only 90% of the stack. Chip leaders will see that as weakness. my guess, split pot if you call.

 

[fundiver199]

I think, preflop, flop and turn are totally fine and standard. But on the river I would check. If you bet, its clearly for value, so you need to ask yourself, what you are trying to get called by? And this is a really bad card for you, because now you chop with all his worse AX, and you lose to his less likely 9X. You can basically only get value from his KK or QX, and thats simply to thin. So for me this is a check-call spot. By checking you allow him a chance to bluff the river, and that is a much better way to get value than hoping, he has exactly KK or QX and will make a crying call.

The other issue with betting is, that you have so little left behind, that if he raise, you are getting an insane price to call it off, but you are most likely also beat. So its a pretty sick spot, and my best advice is to avoid it by not betting in the first place. As played I seriously dont know man. Maybe call thinking, that he could be doing this with another AX trying to push you off a chop, or just be doing something completely weird? Sounds like you folded, and I dont think, thats a big mistake. The mistake was betting the river in the first place without considering enough, what you were trying to accomplish.

 

[Rajten]

I was on BB of course

 

[Arnakk2424]

You have a miss conception of what the bubble is. 368 players paid the bubble is maybe 400

 

[Rajten]

Bubble for me is after end of registration, but it doesn't matter I described exact situation. BTW he got the most plausible hand. You can guess.

QQ

 

[300HPGOD]

I think, preflop, flop and turn are totally fine and standard. But on the river I would check. If you bet, its clearly for value, so you need to ask yourself, what you are trying to get called by? And this is a really bad card for you, because now you chop with all his worse AX, and you lose to his less likely 9X. You can basically only get value from his KK or QX, and thats simply to thin. So for me this is a check-call spot. By checking you allow him a chance to bluff the river, and that is a much better way to get value than hoping, he has exactly KK or QX and will make a crying call.

The other issue with betting is, that you have so little left behind, that if he raise, you are getting an insane price to call it off, but you are most likely also beat. So its a pretty sick spot, and my best advice is to avoid it by not betting in the first place. As played I seriously dont know man. Maybe call thinking, that he could be doing this with another AX trying to push you off a chop, or just be doing something completely weird? Sounds like you folded, and I dont think, thats a big mistake. The mistake was betting the river in the first place without considering enough, what you were trying to accomplish.

I strongly agree with all of this but have a question for you and all in this thread. What does everyone think about the turn sizing? I think it is too large given the stack depth. I do think betting here is proper with the villain check back on the flop but why go 4.9 into 7.8 here? There is now a flush draw and some other draws such as J10 and KJ but we do have a J blocker. I would much rather bet 3 BBs here ( or at least enough to make villain draw against a flush) and then as Fundiver says check river with the intention of calling. Betting large on the turn I believe binds you in this hand more than it will liberate you. I get it a bit if you are targeting a smaller Ax hands but not sure how numerous those are.

 

[fundiver199]

What does everyone think about the turn sizing? I think it is too large given the stack depth.

I agree with this but just did not find it significant enough to mention in my first post. Going to the river out of position with a little over a pot sized bet left is kind of awkward with our hand. Its to deep to jam and expect enough worse hands to call. And if we bet a non all-in size, we either give ourselfes a sick price calling off a jam, or we have to go very small, which negate the effect of going large on the turn. So I think, that if the plan is to go bet, bet, then we need to size down on the turn. Or we can bet turn large and then check the river.

Its also worth thinking a little more about, what kind of range, the Villain would check back this flop with. Its a highly favourable flop for him, and he should be C-betting most of his range. So its almost a little bit suspicious, when he check back, although his check-back range could include hands like KK, JJ or A4s for pot control. But I also think, there are some "traps" in his check-back range. So its not a fist-pump value spot, and it would not be totally crazy to check to him again and use our hand as a bluffcatcher. He still have the nut advantage on this board, since he can easily have AA, QQ and AQ, whereas we can probably only have 55 and A5 as our strongest hands.