$55 NL HE MTT: Fold nut flush? Huge check raise on river

[Rajten]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

55

Game Options

1. Bounty

Currency

$

pokerstars, $50 + $5 - Hold'em No Limit - 350/700 (90 ante) - 7 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/624RL9AYZ

UTG: 24,760 (35 bb)
MP: 33,836 (48 bb)
MP+1: 62,691 (90 bb)
CO (Hero): 41,339 (59 bb)
BU: 41,439 (59 bb)
SB: 51,151 (73 bb)
BB: 39,162 (56 bb)

villain vp 23, pr 12, 3b4, 53 hands

Pre-Flop: (1,680) Hero is CO with A♣ A♠
3 players fold, Hero raises to 1,750, 2 players fold, BB calls 1,050

Flop: (4,480) J♠ T♠ 4♠ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 2,093, BB calls 2,093

Turn: (8,666) Q♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (8,666) Q♠ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 6,300, BB raises to 35,229 (all-in), CO (Hero) folds

I find this hand in my database, was I nit to fold it on river? I think, not betting turn was also doubtful, it was close to bubble, avarage stack was almost 2x.

 

[Andyreas]

Theoretically this board allows for both a straight flush or several full houses which would beat you.

I've made some bad experience(s) with a nut flush on a paired board, so your fold seems okay to me.

Although it's weird that the turn was not bet by any of you. I can see why you did not bet it since the possibility of a straight turned around. 🤔

I guess he might have a set with JJ/TT or even 44 and he shoved because he hit a full house now and beats any possible flush.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop and flop
Completely standard.

Turn
I think, its fine to check back for pot control. Its a very connected board, and I dont think, you can get a worse hand to call 3 streets of betting. It would also suck to get check-raised, and checking back take that play away from him.

River
Bet-fold seem like a completely fine line, especially when his raise is an overbet. He can have almost all the boats and play them like this, there are two possible straight flushes, and he is not doing this with a K high flush "for value". Sure he could be bluffing. A hand like JT, which got counterfeited, is probably a GTO bluff blocking some of the boats. But if he is bluffing, he is risking 35k to win 15k, and then you are allowed to do a lot of folding.

 

[300HPGOD]

There are some questions that pop into my head that could be I dont know the answer to them because I never play at these buy in levels. First, if villain has a hand in the end that we are losing to are they checking the turn knowing there is a good chance we check behind for any number of reasons (our hand was strong and we still checked back which I believe was correct)? How often would Q10 or QJ lead out on turn thinking a check back can put them in a weird river spot? Same goes for the river. We check back turn and now villain rivers a boat and checks again? How often are we checking back on river or betting small (which I think your sizing was a mistake on the river) when we dont have the Ace high flush there? Same goes for all the straights that villain could have. Something just isnt right to me (again, maybe because I play no where near these levels) that they would take the chance of a check back on the river with a scary board to us (assuming we didnt have ace of spades, and even with that card the board still should caution us) if they had the nuts. How many hands are we checking back the river with? Im personally checking the river here with AA, no spade and still cautious even with Qx here. I could be way off but this just doesnt feel like nuts to me here.

What hands would villain expect us to call with here? we wound up folding ace spades but definitely anything less than ace flush we are folding and then only calling with boats and possibly ace flush. How many boats do we have since we checked the turn (not saying turn was bad check)? Would we check turn with QJ or Q10, which by the river the villain knows would be a no spade hand because those were on the board, with the three spades out there that villain could draw to or at the least kill our action plus straight potential? If villain is really on their game I think they can decipher by the river we have almost no boats and really maybe its not almost but just none at all and could only possibly call with ace spades.

 

[fundiver199]

There are some questions that pop into my head that could be I dont know the answer to them because I never play at these buy in levels. First, if villain has a hand in the end that we are losing to are they checking the turn knowing there is a good chance we check behind for any number of reasons (our hand was strong and we still checked back which I believe was correct)? How often would Q10 or QJ lead out on turn thinking a check back can put them in a weird river spot? Same goes for the river. We check back turn and now villain rivers a boat and checks again? How often are we checking back on river or betting small (which I think your sizing was a mistake on the river) when we dont have the Ace high flush there? Same goes for all the straights that villain could have. Something just isnt right to me (again, maybe because I play no where near these levels) that they would take the chance of a check back on the river with a scary board to us (assuming we didnt have ace of spades, and even with that card the board still should caution us) if they had the nuts. How many hands are we checking back the river with? Im personally checking the river here with AA, no spade and still cautious even with Qx here. I could be way off but this just doesnt feel like nuts to me here.

What hands would villain expect us to call with here? we wound up folding ace spades but definitely anything less than ace flush we are folding and then only calling with boats and possibly ace flush. How many boats do we have since we checked the turn (not saying turn was bad check)? Would we check turn with QJ or Q10, which by the river the villain knows would be a no spade hand because those were on the board, with the three spades out there that villain could draw to or at the least kill our action plus straight potential? If villain is really on their game I think they can decipher by the river we have almost no boats and really maybe its not almost but just none at all and could only possibly call with ace spades.

You are making some good points here. Its definitely a sitaution, where Heros range is capped after checking back turn, and Heros value range is also fairly face up as exactly, what he had. So it all depends on, what Villain think, hero will do with an A high flush. If he assume, Hero is an inelastic calling station, then this is a great line by him with a boat or a straight flush. But if he assume, he can get hero to fold an A high flush by going for this overbet, then its a great bluffing line.

Against good players we definitely want to avoid putting ourselfes in situations, where we are folding 100% of our range. So either Hero need to sometimes check back flushes, two pair and sets on the turn, or he need to sometimes close his eyes and make this call. This hand could still be a decent fold though, because it dont block any of the nut hands. Hands like AsQx or AsJx are better calling hands, because they block some of the boats.

 

[Rajten]

Very curious 300HPGOD and fundiver199 view, if it was bluff, well done for him

 

[Joe]

It's a prudent fold.

Retrospect is a wonderful thing I.E. hindsight is 20-20...

It's a polarising bet but it's a nutted or near nutted hand more often than it's a bluff.

Two things I perhaps would have done differently (again hurray for hindsight) is bet the turn (I feel the river decision is easier depending on how villain responds) and of course, checking back the river.

You made a good fold as played.