$500 NLHE MTT: Bubble, poker gods? QQ flops 2nd nuts

[Poker_play]

Hey,
So I joined a $500 live tourney at the casino. I had done well on $2/5 that afternoon so I was freerollin'..but I've never played a live tourney buyin over $120, so I took a shot at it.

150 something players signed up..18 pay. I nitted the hell out the tournament to get deep. I'm average stack...we are down to 19. Once we got down to like 25...these tables tightened up big time (just lots of shortstack shove/blind stealing going on).

I get QsQc in the BB. SB min raises, I 3bet, villain 4 bets to 25% of my stack ,I call.

Flop Ad Qh 4c. Villain checks...Hero bets 1/2 pot. Villain shoves.

Hero??

Villain is chipleader of the whole tourney by a big margin..he hasnt played in at least 3 orbits. He has folded to my BB every other time. I know, i know.."snap"..but remember I'm taking a shot, on the bubble, and reaaally want to make the money here! I don't know if regular EV+/- thinking applies?

I really cant think of specific chip amounts, if necessary I'll just plug in ##s. If I fold..there are 2 reaaallly short shortstacks that I should still have no problem outlasting (even though 50% of my stack is in there).

 

[BluffYou123]

There's just no way you can fold here. Ugly if he has AA but the chips have to go in. With AA he wouldn't play it as fast I don't think. Also, being the big stack he should be trying to run over the table and build his stack even more at the bubble.

 

[arahel_jazz]

Are you playing to get a minimum cash, or are you playing to win?

No way I'm folding here - shove.

 

[xUnrated]

think you gotta call and go for the win, instead of just cashing

 

[Poker_play]

I always play to win. I take advantage of bubble situations and scared money situations all the time cause I'm going for #1.

That day, this tourney..has anyone taken a big shot like this? Maybe they can express it better..I say "aw shucks" and shrug it off when I flop trips and someone else gets a runner runner flush and takes a $500 pot away from me on cash games. I'm OK with that, I get poker variance..usually winds up coming back around.

Losing on the bubble here...with #18 making a big profit...two super short stacks on the table...after 6 hours of play...ugh would be veryy disappointing though. I really didn't want to play a hand @ all till I got in the cash..but I mean QQ in BB? can't fold to a min raise.

Also any thoughts on villain hand? I mean he 4 bets me pre..then slowplays flop and puts me in?

no draws...

yeah yeah I know...I'm trying to make this more complicated then it actually is lol

 

[duggs]

5bet shove pre, no way you can ever fold on this board, more combos of AK and AQ than AA and he can just be bullying you since you are being lol nitty. fwiw i tend to take more marginal spots in shots (this has included 300-500 online buy ins) as i consider my edge to be alot smaller. (not that this is at all marginal.

 

[duggs]

you can also never bet/fold this flop because you have a spr of 1. i kind of like checking it back and letting him put it in on turn with KK/JJ

 

[duggs]

and if you are going to be nitty/passive, why 3bet pre?

 

[Poker_play]

3 bet pre cause its the right move. Likewise river bet...and I can't argue, I should snap callll here. Getting knocked out on bubble didn't cross my mind till he shoved.

I dwelled over it...really aa made the most sense. He's not shoving kk jj...what else could he possibly slowlplay flop with that 4bets pre. Ak aq maaaybe?

Hero call for obv reasons. Villain flips over aa.

1..fu poker gods. 2..I really think I could have made the fold here. Maybe not the right play, maybe for the wrong reason, but I was closer. Hearing everyone agree w call helps tho

I feel like one of those idiots who bleew it and is rationalizing to themselves "no way I could fold that! Just bad luck"

 

[duggs]

half pot betting flop is bad, not 5betting is bad, if you arent 3bet/5bet shoving then dont 3bet
as 3bet/fold and 3bet/call are both bad.

 

[Poker_play]

Really?

3betting is fine. His minraise from sb range is huge...3 bet helps me narrow that down. His 4bet changes that range drastically...to one that I don't wanna shove qq into.

(Probably coinflip...at best..and even so this is an awful stage of the tourney to be flipping coins)

I understand you want to go in w a plan...but how often do I get 4bet in this spot?

And lol what's wrong w flop bet? I'm not trying to slowplay (see any more card) or induce even...trying to take the pot down there.

 

[duggs]

you get 4bet alot as he is out of position and you have a fairly polarized range as you wouldnt be 3betting the middle of your range whilst in position.

so he can 4bet bluff with blockers, and still 4bet wide for value with a widish value range.

QQ plays fine post flop IP so flatting is fine is you have a nitty image.

calling a 4bet with QQ and a SPR of 1 we can basically never fold here postflop.

Betting flop to that size looks retarded strong and folds out alot that would bet the turn for you. betting anything other than super small to induce (like 1/5 pot) or shoving is bad.

I would check back back flop and let him shove turns with air.

lastly AA v QQ is a super cooler BVB but even considering folding it would be pretty terrible.

The biggest point is that you are removing the value of QQ BVB, either flat and let him barrel worse. 3bet/5bet get it in and fist pump about it. as 3betting against an opening range you crush, and hating his 4betting or flatting range (flatting range should be super narrow if he is any good) is basically turning QQ into a bluff/setmine imo.

 

[Pascal-lf]

you seem to be throwing terms around with no idea what you're saying.

"3 bet pre cause its the right move. Likewise river bet.."

there is no river bet?

".what else could he possibly slowlplay flop with that 4bets pre."

he's not slow playing flop, he's playing it fast. slow playing would be check call.

"I really think I could have made the fold here. Maybe not the right play"

of course it's not the right play, so why would you ever make it.

his range has way way more AK/AQ in it than AA and KK just be counting the possible combinations of cards. 3bet small pre and then 5bet shove for 2 reasons - 1. you've got 25% of your stack in. what are you going to do if it comes Axx or Kxx? he can play really well against you even out of position and you're always going to be guessing. 2. his 4bet range is probably the same or very very close to his 5betting range, as in if he 4bets JJ/TT he's gonna be happy to call it off otherwise he wouldn't have 4bet. therefore shoving just lets you get more value from the stuff you beat now and he can't get away from it postflop. 3. winning the pot now isn't terrible if he is turning something with equity into a bluff like T9s

 

[naruto_miu]

you seem to be throwing terms around with no idea what you're saying.

"3 bet pre cause its the right move. Likewise river bet.."

there is no river bet?

".what else could he possibly slowlplay flop with that 4bets pre."

he's not slow playing flop, he's playing it fast. slow playing would be check call.

"I really think I could have made the fold here. Maybe not the right play"

of course it's not the right play, so why would you ever make it.

his range has way way more AK/AQ in it than AA and KK just be counting the possible combinations of cards. 3bet small pre and then 5bet shove for 2 reasons - 1. you've got 25% of your stack in. what are you going to do if it comes Axx or Kxx? he can play really well against you even out of position and you're always going to be guessing. 2. his 4bet range is probably the same or very very close to his 5betting range, as in if he 4bets JJ/TT he's gonna be happy to call it off otherwise he wouldn't have 4bet. therefore shoving just lets you get more value from the stuff you beat now and he can't get away from it postflop. 3. winning the pot now isn't terrible if he is turning something with equity into a bluff like T9s

Genius...Everything I would've stated yet in a none genius manner was stated quite well

 

[Poker_play]

OK.

Pascal, you got me..typing without thinking lol (TILT).

River bet I meant flop bet that duggs said was bad.

I know slowplay is normally C/C all the way down here..but just him checking instead of leading out. I feel more marginal hands KK/JJ lead out here (or c/fold)

I understand folding is never correct here..that's why i called. I'm just wondering if there's ever room for following gut (over mind)..and or if the situation (bubble in big tourney) ever plays a factor in your decision making here. Or if not here--ever?

gotcha duggs. Makes sense when I look @ it objectively. Couldn't @ the time in the heat of the moment. Not a tourney regular if youc ant tell..bubble situations are unlike anything in cash!

 

[Pascal-lf]

bubble will definitely changes spots, for example something like someone shoving over a cbet in a single raised pot on A87hh when you have AJ it might be very marginal to call and thus ICM makes it a fold

 

[Arjonius]

I don't have much issue with looking to min-cash in situations where the payout is a meaningful amount of money. How much is meaningful is personal and subjective.

One thing though. The first time you let the minimum payout affect your play conservatively, you become a player who **usually** plays to win, not **always**.

Fwiw, I used to tighten up in order to cash, even when the min prize was peanuts, so I'm familiar with that kind of thinking. My win rate is higher since I changed, although undoubtedly for more than just this reason. But I've never gotten near a bubble that was more than a few hundred dollars, so I can't be completely sure what I'd do if it was significantly more.

 

[Poker_play]

Thx arj. Yeah places 15-18 were like 1k....while not an insane amount...definitely would feel better being more aggressive and taking a shot at #1 once I got that security. To have played well all day and come out with a losing session...stings. f live tournies!

Fwiw I know I'm being dramatic and no way I can fold here..but I really hate just shruggin it off and sayin "oh well, cooler hand" too many people do that far too lightly..and imo that's why many don't get to next level.