$.50 NLHE MTT: Folding JJ on Button? (45 man sng)

[Creepy Jackalope]

45 man sng, top 7 paid, 14 of us left.

I'm chip leader in the tourney at this point, but not buy a significant margin.

I'm pretty sure I like my fold here, but would like to check my logic. With a 10bb stack I think his shove, especially from early position means I'm gonna be in a coin toss at best more often than not.... ?


pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, 0.5 Tournament, 150/300 Blinds 25 Ante (7 handed) - PokerStars

BB (t5,525)
UTG (t3,215)
MP1 (t4,326)
MP2 (t1,950)
CO (t7,825)
Hero (Button) (t8,820)
SB (t2,490)

Hero's M: 14.11

Preflop: Hero is Button with J

, J

UTG raises to t3,190 (All-In), 6 folds

Total pot: t925

 

[sryImPro]

Fold there would be ok...if UTG pushes like that with 10bb i would think that he does that at least with AQ, AK or so...so if you really dont want to gamble and miss FT, fold would be ok...

 

[Arjonius]

Unless I think the shover is pretty tight, I'm re-shoving to iso. Yes, a fair bit of his range is two overs, but even from UTG, many players are going to shove 10bb holding mid- and even small pairs. It's also not exactly unknown for people to shove hands like Ax especially suited, KJ and KT especially suited, etc. where you have them in very bad shape. Also, some players know they can / should shove a bit wider because it's 7-handed, not a full table.

I'd guess you're around 60% vs his range, and assuming the blinds fold, there's 625 of dead money. Plus even in the worst case, where you lose to the BB, you still have 10bb left. So I definitely prefer re-shoving over folding.

 

[MadMaddie]

I would shove allin here with JJ unless I had read on the other player that they were super tight.

 

[Creepy Jackalope]

Also, some players know they can / should shove a bit wider because it's 7-handed, not a full table.

I hadn't considered the fact we were 7-handed. The blinds are coming faster and he's about to pay them both. So yes, he's probably shoving wide enough to make this a re-shove every time. Thanks.

 

[RamdeeBen]

Really terrible fold.

Think about his whole range for shoving UTG, at a 7 man table.

Give him a realistic range here of, any pair, any broad way and A2s+ we have a massive 65% equity edge and that doesn't include the dead money in the pot already, which gives us an even better price.

Even if we say he has the top 5% of hands, 88+, AJs+,KQs, AKo range here which would be very unlikely we're still break even on the call but that doesn't even include the dead money in the pot, so it would actually be better than a break even call vs the absolute top of his range.

It's massively profitable to call here.

 

[twohaha]

^ have to agree. In a non-icm perspective, you need to win 45% of the time to break even, against a tight range of AQ+, TT+, you win 47% of the time. In a more icm perspective, you are the chip leader, and you aren't really that close to the bubble, so there isn't that much of a justification to fold.

 

[ravpl]

Yes, I agree with that. I will only add that the opponent has about ~ 11BB. It has been 14 players and everyone wants to be in the top 7. He's range is wide. I don't like JJ but in HU u need call all-in with him

 

[rumsey182]

hell no guy with under 15BB pushes snap get it in with JJ

 

[jaworek1405]

Hard situation. I also prefer here fold probably, but I'm tight player, so I don't know if it is a right decision. In the other hand maybe it is worth to risk. When you call this hand and if you lose, you still have good stack to game - about 5600. Here 14 players left, almost 9k chips is good to be in cash. But if shortstack pushes for about 2000 it should be call.

 

[Creepy Jackalope]

Hard situation. I also prefer here fold probably, but I'm tight player, so I don't know if it is a right decision. In the other hand maybe it is worth to risk. When you call this hand and if you lose, you still have good stack to game - about 5600. Here 14 players left, almost 9k chips is good to be in cash. But if shortstack pushes for about 2000 it should be call.

Thanks for this. It's nice to here a different opinion.

I think I've decided that the fold was a mistake. But I really appreciate your thought out comment, and the fact that you went against the grain and posted it.

I'm generally not too tight a player I don't think, but I've been working on tightening up certain spots. That's a lot of what influenced my fold here initially, but then I started to second guess that a little so I posted here.

Historically, I'd of likely re-shoved there with AQ+, AJs+, and 77+.

I'm still a work in progress

 

[Creepy Jackalope]

Correction that should have said KJs+ not AJs+

 

[baudib1]

Getting it in with worse than JJ here.

 

[redwards92]

Getting it in with worse than JJ here.

...... a lot worse lol

 

[hackmeplz]

Really terrible fold.

Think about his whole range for shoving UTG, at a 7 man table.

Give him a realistic range here of, any pair, any broad way and A2s+ we have a massive 65% equity edge and that doesn't include the dead money in the pot already, which gives us an even better price.

Even if we say he has the top 5% of hands, 88+, AJs+,KQs, AKo range here which would be very unlikely we're still break even on the call but that doesn't even include the dead money in the pot, so it would actually be better than a break even call vs the absolute top of his range.

It's massively profitable to call here.

This, sorry but folding here is a gigantic leak. Like you're literally throwing away money.

 

[stlbluesfan]

When I read the OP my first instinct was good fold, after reading the comments I see that maybe I would be wrong, but here's what would have happened if I call in that position, he'd have an A2o flop would be J-5-10 and I'd be feeling pretty good. The turn would be a Q and I'd hold my breath while I watched him hit the straight on the river.

 

[Karozi615]

lol I would have my chips in so fast, if he shows me AA KK QQ its cool, i'll just bink the flop, but I challenge you to show me one of those hands.
What you are ahead of: AK AQ AJ KQ 1010 99 88
what you are behind: AA KK QQ

 

[Karozi615]

honestly the fold isn't horrible but you should reconsider your thought process - its hard to find good spots, but when a shortstack open jams into you UTG at a low level tourney and you have JJ, that's one of those spots you should take.

 

[hackmeplz]

When I read the OP my first instinct was good fold, after reading the comments I see that maybe I would be wrong, but here's what would have happened if I call in that position, he'd have an A2o flop would be J-5-10 and I'd be feeling pretty good. The turn would be a Q and I'd hold my breath while I watched him hit the straight on the river.

We can't control anything after he has A2o. If he has A2o we should snapcall so fast and feel insanely good about it regardless of what comes.

 

[jancika77]

As per my experience on Merge I would get called with any pair (even 22) if I go all in. With JJ and plenty of chips would definitely go all in.

 

[jj20002]

for me is a easy call, villain has only a third of your stack so if he has something like AK, AQ, KQ you are in a coin flip, if he has something like TT or AT or AJ you are ahead, and if he has AA, KK or QQ you are behind but still won´t bust

and by the other hand you have the opportunity to eliminate 1 of 14 players so you will be closer (1/7 so 14%) to the itm