£50 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: Mid set facing donk river bet on 3-flush board

Q

quant1986

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Early stage live MTT, full ring, blind 75/150, no ante, table is quite loose and many recreational players

UTG+2: ~12,000, didn't play many hands, likely on the tight end
MP2 (Hero): ~14,000, tight image
SB: ~10,000, loose

UTG+3 raised to 400, CO called with 88SB called.

Flop: (1350, 3 players)
Q85

SB, UTG+3, CO all checked.

Turn: (1350, 3 players)
2♠

SB checked, UTG+2 bet 1100, CO raised to 3000, SB folded. UTG+2 called.

River: (7350, 3 players)
7

UTG+2 bet 3000, CO?

Questions:
1. Would you call/fold/raise on the river?
2. Would you bet on the flop?
3. Would you call the turn bet instead of raise?
 
Matt Vaughan

Matt Vaughan

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Personally I'd be stabbing at this flop with air a LOT so I'd probably bet bottom and middle set here to get value from the SB's Qx type hands here.

On the turn, I'm fine with the raise and sizing, though I think you COULD go a little bigger.

The river is actually a pretty bad card for you since most of his hands that check flop, but then can bet/call turn as the preflop raiser are sets, two pairs (which I don't think there are any available combos of probably), and draws. The flush draw is the most common and likely draw by far. When he leads out this size, he could be trying to make sure you don't bet any larger, but it is tricky because I feel like it's at least pretty possible that he folds to a sizable raise with all worse hands. And I think it's entirely he does this with a flush.

I think you can just call. If you had a LOT more chips behind, you could consider raising super small and folding to a jam. But I don't think that makes sense with the stack sizes as they are. I just call.
 
manolo salazar

manolo salazar

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1- I would call because villain is disguising of flush or straight.
2- I would bet in the flop trying to extract more value to my hand.
3- If I had checked the flop obviously I am going to re raise the turn to protect my trips.
 
The Boss

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Early stage live MTT, full ring, blind 75/150, no ante, table is quite loose and many recreational players

UTG+2: ~12,000, didn't play many hands, likely on the tight end
MP2 (Hero): ~14,000, tight image
SB: ~10,000, loose

UTG+3 raised to 400, CO called with 88SB called.

Flop: (1350, 3 players)
Q85

SB, UTG+3, CO all checked.

Turn: (1350, 3 players)
2♠

SB checked, UTG+2 bet 1100, CO raised to 3000, SB folded. UTG+2 called.

River: (7350, 3 players)
7

UTG+2 bet 3000, CO?

Questions:
1. Would you call/fold/raise on the river?
2. Would you bet on the flop?
3. Would you call the turn bet instead of raise?


1. I would call because raising in this spot will place you in a situation where an opponent will reraise you with what could be a flush or straight. UTG+2's betting line and the likely hand range you placed him on indicates he likely does not have 64 or 96 to complete a potential straight and considering position it is also unlikely he has a small pair. I would place the opponent as having a flush or even a possible set of Queens. Calling here is a safer play as you want to know what kind of betting line UTG+2 is willing to take with his stronger hands, or bluffs.
2. I would have bet the flop if I suspect one or more of the opponents is willing to continue play after the flop. Because this is a multiway pot, you want to be more straightforward and value bet since it is likely one of the players has a draw to a better hand. Considering also, these players are likely "recreational" and thus may have a high calling frequency, betting here generates value for a hand that is probably way ahead of your other opponent's ranges.
3. I would have raised larger in this spot because UTG+2's small bet indicates two things: a delayed C-bet or a semi-bluff on the turn. Raising larger forces your opponent to decide whether or not to call to see one last card on the river.
 
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