$50 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: $20 MTT. 3way flop, River spot

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P1R35

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~50bb eff, HJ good reg open 2.5x, CO flats, Hero BB called :ks4: :6s4:

Flop:
:qs4: :9s4: :5s4:Checked around.
Turn :10c4: (8BB) Hero bets 4.5bb. CO called.
River:qc4: (17BB) Hero bets 13bb, CO jamed 43bb, Hero :confused:

1. Should we buff-catch here? ( I assume good reg isn't jamming here any worse).
2. What's his value range?
3. What's his bluffing range ?
 
eetenor

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~50bb eff, HJ good reg open 2.5x, CO flats, Hero BB called :ks4: :6s4:

Flop:
:qs4: :9s4: :5s4:Checked around.
Turn :10c4: (8BB) Hero bets 4.5bb. CO called.
River:qc4: (17BB) Hero bets 13bb, CO jamed 43bb, Hero :confused:

1. Should we buff-catch here? ( I assume good reg isn't jamming here any worse).
2. What's his value range?
3. What's his bluffing range ?


Thank U 4 Posting

Assuming a standard range on the river you should have 2/3 value 1/3 bluffs

This is of course a spot in which the Reg can be very polarized however your actions suggest strong hands for value- flush+ on river. The good Reg should know you have all the full houses in your range here as well.

So we should look at your range first. Then if the Reg is good enough to estimate your range build their ranges from there.


Hope this helps.
:):)
 
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P1R35

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Hi,
My range on the river looks like this:
Bottom of value: strong Qx ( KQ/QJ).
Top of Range: Full house (99/55/Q9/QT/Q5s).

K high flush is somewhat in the middle.

I guess i need to call of with Ah flush+ but...
What's his range for value and as a bluff :confused:

When he jams only full house ( QT/TT) than trips (KQ/QJ) or weaker flushes with bloker (like T8ss) are better as bluff-catch than Ah flush...
 
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eetenor

eetenor

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Hi,
My range on the river looks like this:
Bottom of value: strong Qx ( KQ/QJ).
Top of Range: Full house (99/55/Q9/QT/Q5s).

K high flush is somewhat in the middle.

I guess i need to call of with Ah flush+ but...
What's his range for value and as a bluff :confused:

When he jams only full house ( QT/TT) than trips (KQ/QJ) or weaker flushes with bloker (like T8ss) are better as bluff-catch than Ah flush...



Thank U 4 Responding

I incorrectly thought the CO was the good Reg
The issue now becomes do we know anything about how weak the V is.

Would the V check made flushes on flop?
Sets? 2 pair? QT?
Then just call on the turn?

When thinking about Villains range in this spot on the river we are betting value and bluffs. Therefore they should not be jamming trips or two pair for value. Do we have any suspicion this V would?
If not value bets why turn Qx into bluffs and not bluff catch with them? Especially when the bluff size knocks V out of the tournament if wrong but a call leaves them with a good stack size if wrong.

Same with baby flushes- why shove baby flushes when we are betting larger flushes and full houses? So if the V was afraid of you having a flush on the turn why would they ever raise the river with a flush?
Why are they not afraid of full houses?

I ask these questions because the V did not bet sets on the flop 3 way giving a free card to every possible 1 card flush.
Then on the turn did not raise you in Position when no flush card came.

So on the river when the nuts change to full houses not flushes why turn the As into a bluff but not bet it on the flop even as a blocker to get a free look at the river.

If they had the nut flush on turn why call then blast river when the nuts change?

If the V is weak enough they can do all of this. So having an idea how weak the V is is the key here.

Hope this help
:):)
 
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fundiver199

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Preflop
Somewhat loose defense against a HJ open and a CO call, especially when its more than a minraise. But ok you call, and its certainly not terrible.

Flop
I think, there is an argument for leading here, because in a multiway pot the preflop raiser is less likely to C-bet. What do we know about CO? The more fishy / passive CO is, the more I like leading (donk betting). I think, this is certainly "allowed" from a GTO perspective, because you can have more flushes defending your blind than the other guys, so you clearly have a nut advantage here. But ok you check, and its certainly not terrible.

Turn
Unfortunately the flop got checked through, but at least it was a clean turn card. No 4-flush and no board pairing card. Clearly have to bet now to start building the pot.

River
Board pairing but still a clear spot for betting for value of course. Top pair became trips, so very easy to get paid by that hand. And now of course the interesting part, his river raise. Its never great to get raised on the river, but I think, you have to pay this off. Its quite unlikely, he would check back a set or two pair on the flop, so you should only be losing to TT or QTs, which is only a few combos.

If he is a donkey, maybe he can have more boats like QTo or Q9o or whatever. But then he is also more likely to be overplaying trips. So if you fold here to a donkey, you are very likely to become the victim of an accidental value bluff. He think, his AQ is the nuts and is raising "for value", but he makes you fold a much better hand.

In a sense its also better to call here with the K high flush than an A high flush, because then he can have the nakes A of spades, which is probably the most likely bluffing hand. And I am not worried about him having the nut flush, because I dont think, that would ever be played like this. It would either have been bet on the flop, raised on the turn or just called on the river. It makes no sense to slowplay the nut flush and then "spring the trap", when the board has paired, so that he might be beat. So for me he either have a boat, or you are good.

Conclusion
This will probably be a boat pretty often, but in general I am not looking to get away from hands, that are nearly the nuts, when the hand only started with 40`ish blinds. If you had led the flop, then you would have bet the turn and jammed the river, and the result would still have been the same, if for instance he had QT. So if you ended up losing to a boat, I would classify this as just a standard cooler. If the roles are reversed, then I dont think, he is getting away from a K high flush either, just because the board pairs on the river.
 
demesquita

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If the V had AQ with A of spades wouldn't it be more reasonable for him to start builind the pot with a bet on the flop also to gather information on the other 2 players (tptk with nut flush draw)? I'm new to analysing hands so if I'm saying something completely idiotic I appologize. ;)
 
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fundiver199

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If the V had AQ with A of spades wouldn't it be more reasonable for him to start builind the pot with a bet on the flop also to gather information on the other 2 players (tptk with nut flush draw)? I'm new to analysing hands so if I'm saying something completely idiotic I appologize. ;)

It would, but there are a ton of other AX hands with A of spades, that might be played like this. Not everyone will always play all their draws aggressively. The more interesting question is, how often people will actually raise the river as a bluff in a situation like this. A lot of people might simply give up, if they decided to play passively and missed their draw. So its probably an underbluffed line, but it would still be a massive exploit to bet-fold a K high flush on the river, after only a single bet went in on the turn.
 
eetenor

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If the V had AQ with A of spades wouldn't it be more reasonable for him to start builind the pot with a bet on the flop also to gather information on the other 2 players (tptk with nut flush draw)? I'm new to analysing hands so if I'm saying something completely idiotic I appologize. ;)


Thank U 4 Posting

The CO should be small betting a range of hands almost all AsX as well as AsXs on the flop to build the pot for expected value and to be able to set up a 2 street bluff. AsQx should always be bet as we are blocking top set and the good Reg should be betting all their sets on this flop sometimes checking top set.

Information betting on flop does not give CO much more info than they already have and they cannot protect vs the hands with equity.
The info we are looking for comes over 2 streets of action not 1.

Hope this helps
:):)
 
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