$.50 NLHE MTT: Calling all in with AT

[tzuriel]

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

HJ has about 12 BB left in the late middle stage of this tournament. Thought he might have a weak K so I called with ATo. Didn't know much about him so opted for the call. What do you all think?

NL Holdem $0.50+$0.05 (2000.00BB)
UTG ($29200)
HJ ($26400)
CO ($43025)
HERO ($45930)
SB ($117495)
BB ($33505)

Dealt to Hero: A♥ T♣

UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $26400 (allin), CO Folds, HERO Calls $26200, SB Folds, BB Folds

Flop ($56600): 3♠ 8♥ 5♣

Turn ($56600): 3♠ 8♥ 5♣ 4♥

River ($56600): 3♠ 8♥ 5♣ 4♥ A♣

Spoiler

HJ shows: K♥ A♦

HJ wins: $56600

 

[300HPGOD]

I am sure someone will put this in a solver, I dont have access to one and feel like it will disagree with me on this one but I would probably fold this in game. The villain has gone all in for over half of our stack so we can severely stack dented if we are wrong here plus I would start to ask myself what hands villain would do this with and what hands they wouldnt. Not knowing anything about villain I dont think with 13 BB that they would be jamming A7 and lower here (maybe Ace wheel suited but I even doubt that) and then I would rule out idiot jams like K4 off or J5 off so that leaves pockets pairs and A8+. If I am right about that range then there are not many hands that I am really good against, a bunch that I am flipping slightly to the bad against (46 vs 54 ish) and some hands where I am dominated. That is nearly good enough for me to risk half my stack. Plus that does not even mention that we are not closing the action here. A10 looks like a nice hand, its a hand I will be the jammer with when Im shallow enough but I dont like calling jams with it.

 

[tzuriel]

I am sure someone will put this in a solver, I dont have access to one and feel like it will disagree with me on this one but I would probably fold this in game. The villain has gone all in for over half of our stack so we can severely stack dented if we are wrong here plus I would start to ask myself what hands villain would do this with and what hands they wouldnt. Not knowing anything about villain I dont think with 13 BB that they would be jamming A7 and lower here (maybe Ace wheel suited but I even doubt that) and then I would rule out idiot jams like K4 off or J5 off so that leaves pockets pairs and A8+. If I am right about that range then there are not many hands that I am really good against, a bunch that I am flipping slightly to the bad against (46 vs 54 ish) and some hands where I am dominated. That is nearly good enough for me to risk half my stack. Plus that does not even mention that we are not closing the action here. A10 looks like a nice hand, its a hand I will be the jammer with when Im shallow enough but I dont like calling jams with it.

Fair enough. I need to work on thinking it through in game. Your explanation is very helpful. Thanks.

 

[tzuriel]

Thank you again for your consistent thoroughness!

 

[fundiver199]

Thought he might have a weak K so I called with ATo.

Your opponent does not have a specific hand. He has a range of hands, so you need to estimate your equity against that range. And his range continue all the strong hands like AA, KK, AK and so on. There is nobody in the world, who jam "a weak K" but dont jam AK or AA. In real time I would have folded this. I dont think, AT has amazing equity against a reasonable 13BB HJ jamming range. And as 300HPGOD say, you are also not closing action. There will be times here, where you are actually ahead of HJ, but then someone behind wakes up with pocket kings and ambush you.

But lets get a little more objective about it and see, what ICMizer has to say. First we must pick a tournament, but since it was "mid stage", it probably dont matter much. I went for pokerstars "MTT 1.500 man". 198 people get paid in these, so I told ICMizer 500 was left with an average stack of 25BB, which is similar to Heros table. I then plugged in the stack sizes and action and pressed "ICMize". This is all just to explain, how the program works. You can do this yourself even without buying the program, since they give you a free daily simulation. I highly encourage trying it out. Anyways the results:

* HJ jamming range is 20% of hands
* Hero calling range is 7,5% of hands: 77+, AJ+, ATs

So this is actually very close, but ATo is not a call. Moreover in micro and low stakes tournaments the general population is playing in a way, which makes calling less profitable. They are typically not open jamming as much, as they are supposed to, and they are calling to wide. They are especially overcalling to wide. The players behind are supposed to fold AJ and AQ, when Hero has called, but most likely they wont. And realistically HJ is probably not jamming 20% of hands. It might be more like 10% or 15%. And with these adjustment calling ATo becomes pretty bad. Even AJo is probably losing money here with realistic assumptions about, how the population actually play.

 

[theANMATOR]

I am sure someone will put this in a solver, I dont have access to one and feel like it will disagree with me on this one but I would probably fold this in game. The villain has gone all in for over half of our stack so we can severely stack dented if we are wrong here plus I would start to ask myself what hands villain would do this with and what hands they wouldnt. Not knowing anything about villain I dont think with 13 BB that they would be jamming A7 and lower here (maybe Ace wheel suited but I even doubt that) and then I would rule out idiot jams like K4 off or J5 off so that leaves pockets pairs and A8+. If I am right about that range then there are not many hands that I am really good against, a bunch that I am flipping slightly to the bad against (46 vs 54 ish) and some hands where I am dominated. That is nearly good enough for me to risk half my stack. Plus that does not even mention that we are not closing the action here. A10 looks like a nice hand, its a hand I will be the jammer with when Im shallow enough but I dont like calling jams with it.

Agree with my fellows above.
I put the villains range here at 25% 55+ all suited aces, A/9 o +
vs this range A/T is a 45% dog.

And to HPs point about A/T looking like a nice hand ??
Whenever I see A/T o - unless I'm in the bb and being limped to from LP - other than that, or opening it from LP, in only those two spots will I play this hand, otherwise - as I'm pitching it into the muck, I'm saying to myself, what a waste of a good Ace. LOL

 

[FernA9ndo]

Folding would be a good answer to his all-in, specially because villain oop range is more strong than button and is playing agressive with less BBs.

 

[Jon Poker]

Would have to put this into icmizer to be sure but this is likely going to be a fold with ATo and 2 villans yet to act behind. Shoving range for the HJ on 12bb is not as wide as people think and calling off with AT is likely the bottom of our Ax combos. I think if we were in the BB and closing the action however, ATo is a pretty clear call.

Just a spot we don't need to take. AQo definitely a call, AJo is likely the bottom here for us to call. We can even consider edge passing some of our most marginal call offs in these spots. All of these assumptions based on NASH ranges of course. If our villan is a super spaz or the nittiest nit, then we can make calls/folds based on player specific tendencies.

Edit:: seems Fundiver has already done the icmizer analysis, so there we go lol. Trust in the tools, it's what we use them for!

 

[tzuriel]

Agree with my fellows above.
I put the villains range here at 25% 55+ all suited aces, A/9 o +
vs this range A/T is a 45% dog.

And to HPs point about A/T looking like a nice hand ??
Whenever I see A/T o - unless I'm in the bb and being limped to from LP - other than that, or opening it from LP, in only those two spots will I play this hand, otherwise - as I'm pitching it into the muck, I'm saying to myself, what a waste of a good Ace. LOL

Thank you. I need to learn this lesson.

 

[Baldy86]

i would have folded unless i would have a lot of chips . you wont beat much there with A-T

if you had a lot more chips then definitely call though

but it is always easy to talk here . i mean i dont know if in the heat of the moment i would have called too

 

[eetenor]

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

HJ has about 12 BB left in the late middle stage of this tournament. Thought he might have a weak K so I called with ATo. Didn't know much about him so opted for the call. What do you all think?

NL Holdem $0.50+$0.05 (2000.00BB)
UTG ($29200)
HJ ($26400)
CO ($43025)
HERO ($45930)
SB ($117495)
BB ($33505)

Dealt to Hero: A♥ T♣

UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $26400 (allin), CO Folds, HERO Calls $26200, SB Folds, BB Folds

Flop ($56600): 3♠ 8♥ 5♣

Turn ($56600): 3♠ 8♥ 5♣ 4♥

River ($56600): 3♠ 8♥ 5♣ 4♥ A♣

Spoiler

HJ shows: K♥ A♦

HJ wins: $56600

Thank you for posting

As this hand demonstrates you gave the villain far to narrow a range. V at 12bb at this
buy-in level will shove a lot of premium hands as they expect to get called- as well as AQ AJ. So AT off suit just does not have enough equity vs range to call

The size of the shove also makes AToff a fold as the HJ has 13 bb we have 23bb if we lose we have 10bb this is terrible for us to drop to that stack size at this stage of the tournament. We have so much more playability with the larger stack that this is an auto muck.

FGS which is Future Game Simulations- based on the idea of ICM can be used to understand how much more equity our stack has than the equity we are getting in this spot with this hand.
Even with the V having Kx suited only we have 60% equity but we will be losing 70% or more of our FGS value when we fall to a 10bb stack as we become the lowest stack on the table.

Hope this helps

 

[tzuriel]

Thank you for posting

As this hand demonstrates you gave the villain far to narrow a range. V at 12bb at this
buy-in level will shove a lot of premium hands as they expect to get called- as well as AQ AJ. So AT off suit just does not have enough equity vs range to call

The size of the shove also makes AToff a fold as the HJ has 13 bb we have 23bb if we lose we have 10bb this is terrible for us to drop to that stack size at this stage of the tournament. We have so much more playability with the larger stack that this is an auto muck.

FGS which is Future Game Simulations- based on the idea of ICM can be used to understand how much more equity our stack has than the equity we are getting in this spot with this hand.
Even with the V having Kx suited only we have 60% equity but we will be losing 70% or more of our FGS value when we fall to a 10bb stack as we become the lowest stack on the table.

Hope this helps

It does! Thank you