$.50 NLHE MTT: bad odds - nut flush draw

[tzuriel]

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

This was an On-Demand Turbo MTT. The blinds go up every 5 min and the jumps are pretty big.

This hand: ITM with 6 left. Blinds are 6000/12000 Ante: 1200. ICM implications, obviously. [How's this theANMATOR? ]

Opened AQs from the HJ and get 3bet by the BU who has been pretty active but not crazy (VPIP 29 over 94 hands PFR is 21 and only 3bet 13.3%). I could 4bet here but opted to call and see what happens on the flop. (I think either option is fine but perhaps 4betting is better since I am OOP?) I am pretty sure villain has a pocket pair since I have seen him do this already. Flop is a whiff but there is one diamond so I think Check call was okay here for 2.5 BB. I run in to trouble when the 4th diamond comes on the turn. I check and he essentially shoves. He has probably determined that I am drawing and wants to deny my equity since he has a pair already, probably. So his shove is a good play.

I am drawing pretty thin here like 28%-30% if he has a pocket pair or some decent Jack. I don't think my odds are good enough and he is 2nd in chips. Why would he want to start up with the chip leader? If I call and lose I am crippled and I felt there would definitely be better spots to come. I think they call that edge passing?

Correct to fold?

(As it turns out, I got heads up with this guy and was able to beat him when he called a minraise with 69o. I had A9o and bet 1/4 pot when an A hit the flop and he shoves 18bb! Maybe he was just tired of playing? He showed no signs of insanity throughout this tourney!)

NL Holdem $0.50+$0.05 (12000.00BB)
SB ($153850)
BB ($187900)
UTG ($46330)
HERO ($447384)
CO ($144270)
BTN ($400266)

Dealt to Hero: Q♦ A♦

UTG Folds, HERO Raises To $33600, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $54000, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $20400

Hero SPR on Flop: [2.65 effective]
Flop ($130800): J♦ 2♠ 5♥
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $30000 (Rem. Stack: $316266), HERO Calls $30000 (Rem. Stack: $363384)

Turn ($190800): J♦ 2♠ 5♥ 9♦
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $314932 (Rem. Stack: $1334), HERO Folds

Spoiler

BTN wins: $190800

 

[PPT]

I think you've both played that well there. You've only got what ~25% chance there so there's really no reason to be matching his shove. The cards didn't come in time, so keep your chips for next time - and it worked so the proof is in the pudding!

 

[300HPGOD]

We start the hand with 37 BBs (effective stack 33 BBs for this villain) and note that there is a very short stack which important since we are at the final table here (at least thats how I interpret the post) so the pay jumps should be a little bigger than your average pay jump. Villain is 29/21/13 so they do 3 bet often and with a smaller effective stack I would be 4 bet jamming over a 13% 3 bettor (I dont know how often villain 3 bets from the button, they could be 13% overall 3 betting but more like low 20%s from the button 3 betting). By smaller stack I am thinking 25 BBs or less but I do not like doing that at the final table especially when there is a shorty and some others that are low as well unless we have villain covered by a considerable amount. It was a min 3 bet so I take that as its either a monster or it is a player who is 3 betting just for the sake of 3 betting.

First, I dont think you need to open that large (2.8x) when a raise of anywhere from 2 to 2.25 will be just as effective at these blinds levels. That would also make the min 3 bet a smaller amount and an even easier call. With what I said above that I would not 4 bet jam off this stack and also do not like 4 betting to another amount so I would call with a hand that flops well.

Flop bet is very small which I would take as villain is not afraid of anything and does not want us to fold. I think for the small amount to call we can call here and see what the turn brings. No sense to raise here unless you think villain is bluffing and will fold and you are in the frame of mind that you dont want to bluff catch for multiple streets. Calling is the best option by far imo.

Turn brings another diamond and now all the sudden villain overbet jams which to me says they werent scared on the flop and now they see a draw so its time to end the charade and protect their hand. At this point I think you are going against a strong hand that given we have the A and Q is quite possibly KK so I like folding here. We have some equity against a hand like KK but not enough to call an overbet shove. Its a fold we hate making but its clearly the best choice of our options.

 

[tzuriel]

Thanks HP. That was basically it. Hated folding but knew I had to.

We start the hand with 37 BBs (effective stack 33 BBs for this villain) and note that there is a very short stack which important since we are at the final table here (at least thats how I interpret the post) so the pay jumps should be a little bigger than your average pay jump. Villain is 29/21/13 so they do 3 bet often and with a smaller effective stack I would be 4 bet jamming over a 13% 3 bettor (I dont know how often villain 3 bets from the button, they could be 13% overall 3 betting but more like low 20%s from the button 3 betting). By smaller stack I am thinking 25 BBs or less but I do not like doing that at the final table especially when there is a shorty and some others that are low as well unless we have villain covered by a considerable amount. It was a min 3 bet so I take that as its either a monster or it is a player who is 3 betting just for the sake of 3 betting.

First, I dont think you need to open that large (2.8x) when a raise of anywhere from 2 to 2.25 will be just as effective at these blinds levels. That would also make the min 3 bet a smaller amount and an even easier call. With what I said above that I would not 4 bet jam off this stack and also do not like 4 betting to another amount so I would call with a hand that flops well.

Flop bet is very small which I would take as villain is not afraid of anything and does not want us to fold. I think for the small amount to call we can call here and see what the turn brings. No sense to raise here unless you think villain is bluffing and will fold and you are in the frame of mind that you dont want to bluff catch for multiple streets. Calling is the best option by far imo.

Turn brings another diamond and now all the sudden villain overbet jams which to me says they werent scared on the flop and now they see a draw so its time to end the charade and protect their hand. At this point I think you are going against a strong hand that given we have the A and Q is quite possibly KK so I like folding here. We have some equity against a hand like KK but not enough to call an overbet shove. Its a fold we hate making but its clearly the best choice of our options.