$5 NLHE MTT: x-way w/1/3 stack overpot iso

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300HPGOD

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Villain looks like they read 39/28/8 which is fairly loose. I dont think you should ever be calling here since villain is already announcing that they are committing themselves and you would be putting it in eventually anyway. This is a jam or fold spot and you need to ask yourself whether or not you think villain would do this move with A7-A10 and whether you are ready to flip or not. My personal feeling is villain would not go this large over a limper if they had QQ-AA. That does leave JJ which leaves us in bad shape but my real feeling is this is 99-77. It comes down to how close you are to the money at this point (ICM) and also if you think you are better than those still left or you feel like they are way better than you. The more you feel on par or better with the field then it should make you lean fold and the more you feel like you cant keep up with the field then you would be more willing to gamble.

Personally I like folding here even though it is AJ but we have to think about what we are going against. Unless this villain is crazy (39 vpip is usually low for the real crazies) I think you are no better than flipping here to the bad with the occasional A10 and A9 that villain might have. The effective stack is 3/4ths or of our stack so I dont put a lot of value in the 7BB or so we would have left over if we call and are wrong. I know the question will arise then what should we be jamming with here and my range will most likely be tighter than others from what I know about me. I think I am jamming 1010+ and AQ suited+ here. Basing that off again that I feel villain would not usually make this move with QQ+ and has a lot of hands they dont want to see a flop with like 77-99. Villain would probably be better off just jamming themself even though it would be a large jam of 23BB.
 
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fundiver199

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Villain looks like they read 39/28/8 which is fairly loose. I dont think you should ever be calling here since villain is already announcing that they are committing themselves and you would be putting it in eventually anyway. This is a jam or fold spot and you need to ask yourself whether or not you think villain would do this move with A7-A10 and whether you are ready to flip or not. My personal feeling is villain would not go this large over a limper if they had QQ-AA. That does leave JJ which leaves us in bad shape but my real feeling is this is 99-77. It comes down to how close you are to the money at this point (ICM) and also if you think you are better than those still left or you feel like they are way better than you. The more you feel on par or better with the field then it should make you lean fold and the more you feel like you cant keep up with the field then you would be more willing to gamble.

Personally I like folding here even though it is AJ but we have to think about what we are going against. Unless this villain is crazy (39 vpip is usually low for the real crazies) I think you are no better than flipping here to the bad with the occasional A10 and A9 that villain might have. The effective stack is 3/4ths or of our stack so I dont put a lot of value in the 7BB or so we would have left over if we call and are wrong. I know the question will arise then what should we be jamming with here and my range will most likely be tighter than others from what I know about me. I think I am jamming 1010+ and AQ suited+ here. Basing that off again that I feel villain would not usually make this move with QQ+ and has a lot of hands they dont want to see a flop with like 77-99. Villain would probably be better off just jamming themself even though it would be a large jam of 23BB.

Pretty much agree with this. Just want to add, that we are also not closing action. So even if we are ahead of the maniac, some percentage of the time there will be an overcall, and we are in really bad shape against a hand like KK or AK. Its just to many chips to be risking with AJo given the situation.
 
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