$5 NLHE MTT Turbo Rebuy: Very Tough Spot On the River!

[seeyouthru]

Hand Replay: https://vimeo.com/462572804 Mid to Late stage of tourney 18 remain away from itm, standard 2x open and we get a call from sb and bb, the villian from sb is LAG But Little Bit on The Fishy Side. So we flop the flush and cbet and turn also we fire another barrel, villian might be continuing with Kx and maybe Had a Flush Blocker As Well. On the river Villian Tanks and Shoves Huge. What should Hero Do? Need Analysis, Thanks!

 

[fundiver199]

He is betting 3-4 times the pot, so his line is either nuts or nothing, and at a limit like this I think, its strongly skewed towards nuts. So I would not mind simply folding any bluff catcher. And if you are going to dig out a huge hero call, this is also a spot, where blockers are more important than hand strength. A hand like AcKs is a much better bluff catcher than QdJd, because it block some boats, and it unblock busted draws.

But I probably would not do much bluff catching here to be honest. Even with 22 I would at least consider folding, because that hand also does not beat or block any value. With 99 I probably dont bet the flop, and with TT I beat 22/99 and block KT/TT, so this is the hand, which for me is just to strong to fold. With anything less than TT I just let him have it and live to fight another day

 

[tomasdig]

I'm with fundiver on this one. It's very likely you are beat right now, and even if you aren't it doesn't really make sense to me to call here, given that folding still leaves you in 3rd place, quite close to 2nd and with a big difference with 4th and 5th.

It also doesn't make sense that he would push here without a boat or the nut flush.

 

[jaworek1405]

Hello, I think that hero made a small mistake. If I good see on the turn we have about 11 000 pot, hero plays about 3300 and opponent can read this bet as a weakness. Opponents from the small blind position play even good hand. For me it seems that opponent can have three of a kind or he hit a full house on the river. I prefer bigger bet on the turn, because if I good see hero and opponent are even deep. Players from the small blind usually play better hand than players from defending big blind. Hard decision on the river, because hero is started hand on 50-60bb in stack. It seems that opponent has something better than hero and I think we can fold this hand. GL

 

[fundiver199]

Hello, I think that hero made a small mistake. If I good see on the turn we have about 11 000 pot, hero plays about 3300 and opponent can read this bet as a weakness.

I did not play the video before making my first comment, but after seeing it I think, that both the flop and turn bets are to small and leaving a lot of value on the table. We need to fastplay a hand like this, and we dont do that by these cute little 1/4 pot bets. I am not sure, it changes the river situation all that much though. Even if Villain wanted to bluff, other sizes than all in were available, and in my opinion this big overjam is typically a move, which is made to try and stack someone, who cant fold trips or better. In fact overbetting a full house on boards, where a flush and straight is possible, is one of the strategies advocated in "Crushing the Microstakes", and quite a few people have read that book today.

 

[Jon Poker]

I think two pair or better should be raising us for value and protection, so im not too worried about the FH here - our bet sizing is way too small here - this is a draw heavy board with alot more than just a bare Kx can call larger bet sizings. We flopped the 2nd nuts - we want to get it all in if at all possible so we need to do that by proper bet sizings so we can hopefully go for max value on the river.

As the hand is played i am snap calling. Its why I practice good BRM, villans are overplaying lots of Kx with a heart here, some smaller flopped flushes would take this line as well -- im losing to a FH which i dont feel is happening very much here given the post flop action - and the flopped nuts which is pretty slim as well..so with two scenarios I lose to, you're going to have to show it to me.

I would also like to note that your tiny bet sizings kind of look like blockers where you are trying to realize some equity with a hand like AQo with the A of hearts - when the King smacks the river and hearts brick villan is likely confident in trip Ks here - the problem is by shoving he is only being called by better in this spot.

For me, this is a snap call in any micro tournament I am well rolled for. Had I gotten raised on the flop I would probably look to get it all in with the 2nd nuts and if he runners me or flopped the nuts it is what it is and such is poker.

 

[mktpppr]

Hello,

Generally, this is the nuts.

In this specific spot the critical question is: does villain donk jam Kx trips like this?

If "Yes", then it's a call.

If "No", then it's a fold.

There's more combos of nut flush than full house, and villain is capable of jamming smaller flushes.

All bet sizing are too small: preflop should be 2.5-3x. We are giving insane odds to flat pre with antes in play, which is why more flushes, nut and smaller, are in villain's river donk jam range.

Flop should be 75% PSB: we are vs 2 players with a strong hand, so bet aggressively for value.

Turn should be 75% PSB as well: continue aggressively for value.

As played, in real time, I would tank-fold, using up all my time bank. Villain tanking before jamming is nuttish.