$5 NLHE MTT Rebuy: Flop Shove with OESD + BDFD

[marnburger]

This is into the money in a $5 R&A with about 30 people left. I am in 7th position overall with the chip lead at the table, however two players have almost the same stack as me and the other 4 are fairly short.

I need another big win so I can buy a HUD so no stats unfortunately.
Overall everyone was still being fairly tight after the bubble.
Villain had been fairly tight and if anything a bit passive post flop. Only big hand was defending BB with Q3o and hit runner runner for a FH and doubled up.

Chip leaders are on around 250k which was 70BB at this point. I am on 120k and trying to build a bigger stack.

I’ve looked at some ranges and I’m pretty sure this is a profitable shove, however I had a real feeling that Villain had the overpair. My maths at the time said the pre-flop call was ok requiring ~33% against the SB 3-bet range (however I think the small 3-bet pre-flop really could just be 99+ and AKo, AQs+), I also liked 56s as call for the implied odds and disguised hand but maybe this is a fold?

My next questions are whether the turn shove is profitable? And should I still make the shove if I think Villain is on an overpair? (this read is online based on tightish player, small 3-bet, speed of decisions in the hand and size of c-bet) If Villain isn’t too nitty here there should be lots of fold equity.

$5 R&A
1.6k/3.2k/400 - 10 Max

Total number of players : 7
Seat 1: HJ ( 9.3BB )
Seat 2: CU ( 17.7BB )
Seat 4: BTN ( 15.5BB )
Seat 6: Villain SB ( 36.7BB )
Seat 7: BB ( 30.6BB )
Seat 9: Hero UTG ( 39.5BB )
Seat 10: LJ ( 10BB )

Dealt to Hero UTG 6h, 5h
hero raises to 2BB
folds to villain in SB who 3-bets to 4.5BB
BB folds
Hero calls 2.5BB

Flop comes 3d, Th, 4d (10.9BB)
Villain bets 8.8BB
Hero raises all-in for 35BB
Villain calls 23BB

Turn and River 6c, Kc

Villain shows Qh, Qs
Hero shows 6h, 5h
Villain collected 75BB

 

[AlexTheOwl]

I'd fold 65s UTG seven-handed instead of opening with it. I understand that you are the chip leader and the table has been tight, but that's still too weak a hand and too many players ahead of you.

The rest looks well played to me.

 

[mbrenneman0]

fold pre, this is way too loose

dont open 65s UTG, as played, you have to call that 3bet sizing

the shove OTF is*maybe* positive chipEV, depends on how much of his range he folds... you have about 33% equity against anything he calls with, but you need him to fold about 30% of his range here in order to be +cEV, but I dont think he folds that often here. he maybe folds about 20% of his range...

even if it is +cEV, i think ICM makes this just a fold... ICM basically means that $EV is less than cEV because the payout is based on survival. this effect is amplified as the tournament gets closer and closer to the final table. I think you are losing money in this spot.

 

[microse]

Fold pre. 65 UTG, I wouldn’t raise. Too loose here but I agree you need to call the raise as played. He does seems strong with the preflop reraise and flop bet, so I would gold there as well.

 

[liuouhgkres]

You shouldn't open 65s from UTG and I disagree with others, I think you should fold it to pre-flop 3-bet. If you don't fold 65s then you probably don't fold anything and are very exploitable. If villain has any idea of your tendencies he can exploit you with 3-betting only very top of his range. Now, you have around 30% equity, but that's not enough in your situation because, you will not be able to realize your equity completely. You will need to fold when you hit 6 or 5 or straight draw hand a lot of the time, you need bigger stack for small suited connecters to be profitable in 3-bet spots.

On the flop I don't advocate for raise, because considering you range of hands you shouldn't raise at all. Your range is capped and you don't have many value bets to raise all-in, only TT in fact, since you shouldn't have 44 or 33 and you 4-bet preflop JJ+. Villain on the other hand has all of overpairs and his betting range is way stronger than your range. Since you don't have value raise range you shouldn't bluff neither. Now, his bet size is very big, which makes calling very hard, but it doesn't change the fact that you don't have value range. So your options are calling and folding, and considering how big of a bet it is, I think fold is the best option.

 

[mbrenneman0]

I disagree with others, I think you should fold it to pre-flop 3-bet. If you don't fold 65s then you probably don't fold anything and are very exploitable.

pot odds: youre suggesting he fold to a 1:4 price. He only needs 25% equity to call profitably and he has about 30% vs villains range.

 

[AlexTheOwl]

If you don't fold 65s then you probably don't fold anything and are very exploitable. If villain has any idea of your tendencies he can exploit you with 3-betting only very top of his range.

I don't understand this. If the hero calls 3-bets with a very wide range, shouldn't the villain exploit by 3-betting with a range that is almost as wide, and/or 3-betting with a larger bet size with the top half of the villain's range?

If the hero is willing to invest a lot of money in weak hands, I don't understand why the villain should ask the hero to invest more money in hands less frequently.

 

[playinggameswithu]

65s goes up in value in multiway pots.It does way down in value heads up.The reason being pairs are the majority primary hands and this one has two low cards 6,5.

Raise Your Edge on youtube has good shove chart. I personally shove K9s or better depending on my situation obviously if it is a sat. tournament and I got enough chips I just fold to the money.

 

[liuouhgkres]

@mbrenneman0
hero will not be able to realize his equity, as I explained above. A lot of the time hero will hit 6 or 5 or gutshot and still will need to fold. Small suited connecters are terrible in 3-bet pots, unless effective stacks are 100bb or above.

 

[liuouhgkres]

@AlexTheOwl,
no, when someone doesn't fold to your 3-bet, you don't increase your 3-bet range, instead you remove bluffs from range.

 

[mbrenneman0]

@mbrenneman0
hero will not be able to realize his equity, as I explained above. A lot of the time hero will hit 6 or 5 or gutshot and still will need to fold. Small suited connecters are terrible in 3-bet pots, unless effective stacks are 100bb or above.

If hero hits a 5 or 6, then he should only fold to a flop bet if theres also an ace on the board.

@AlexTheOwl,
no, when someone doesn't fold to your 3-bet, you don't increase your 3-bet range, instead you remove bluffs from range.

+1

 

[AlexTheOwl]

If villain has any idea of your tendencies he can exploit you with 3-betting only very top of his range.

@AlexTheOwl,
no, when someone doesn't fold to your 3-bet, you don't increase your 3-bet range, instead you remove bluffs from range.

I agree that there is no point in bluffing if the villain will never fold.
But I don't see how you are "exploiting" someone who always calls a 3-bet by only 3-betting the very top of your range.

The opposite is true.

All you have done is remove a weapon from your arsenal - the 3-bet bluff - without replacing it with a different weapon.

 

[mbrenneman0]

I agree that there is no point in bluffing if the villain will never fold.
But I don't see how you are "exploiting" someone who always calls a 3-bet by only 3-betting the very top of your range.

The opposite is true.

All you have done is remove a weapon from your arsenal - the 3-bet bluff - without replacing it with a different weapon.

The same way you exploit someone who has a high PFR, by tightening up and playing strong value hands and letting them take themselves to value town

 

[liuouhgkres]

@AlexTheOwl,
your case is true only f villain opens very wide, which in this case might be correct, since hero opens 65s, his range is very wide for UTG. But, in any case villains 3-bet range should be only vale 3-bets, maybe wider than usual, but still value bets, not bluffs. The problem is, for a lot of hands like A9s, you don't want to play 3-bet pot out of position, you are still dominated by many hands so it's more preferable to pot control.

 

[AlexTheOwl]

The same way you exploit someone who has a high PFR, by tightening up and playing strong value hands and letting them take themselves to value town

Value town is exactly right. But wouldn't you exploit the way you do when someone has a high VPIP, not a high PFR? The tendency is to call raises with weak hands, not to 4-bet with weak hands.

@AlexTheOwl,
your case is true only f villain opens very wide, which in this case might be correct, since hero opens 65s, his range is very wide for UTG. But, in any case villains 3-bet range should be only vale 3-bets, maybe wider than usual, but still value bets, not bluffs. The problem is, for a lot of hands like A9s, you don't want to play 3-bet pot out of position, you are still dominated by many hands so it's more preferable to pot control.

I think we are in agreement.
I wouldn't advocate 3-betting more frequently against someone who never folds to 3-bets, but only raises a tight range.
That person's strategy of never folding to 3-bets is closer to being correct, since they usually have a strong hand and should usually be willing to invest more chips in it.
And position is certainly a factor.

 

[mbrenneman0]

Value town is exactly right. But wouldn't you exploit the way you do when someone has a high VPIP, not a high PFR? The tendency is to call raises with weak hands, not to 4-bet with weak hands.

Edit: misread what you were saying

I think if you look at a GTO 3betting range, about 30% of the range is bluffs, when someone calls too often, you dant add more bluffs right? A few of those bluffs will turn into 3bet for value, but you also have to remove bluffs and ultimately the range will be smaller

 

[AlexTheOwl]

That makes sense. My objection was to liuouhgkres's comment that we should only 3-bet the very top of our range against this non-folding opponent.

There are more hands that we can 3-bet for value, but I agree that they would not be larger in number then the bluffs that we would need to remove, if we are bluffing as often as 30% of the time.