$5 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: AA, big pot, very bad river card

vox1er

vox1er

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UTG: 93.88 BB
UTG+1: 125.36 BB
MP: 92 BB
MP+1: 108.27 BB
CO: 88.25 BB
Hero (BTN): 98 BB
SB: 107.38 BB
BB: 89.13 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A
heart.gif
A
spade.gif


fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.75 BB, SB calls 2.25 BB, fold

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) A
diamond.gif
Q
heart.gif
9
diamond.gif

SB checks, Hero bets 3.4 BB, SB raises to 7 BB, Hero calls 3.6 BB

Turn: (20.5 BB, 2 players) T
heart.gif

SB bets 13.67 BB, Hero raises to 38.9 BB, SB calls 25.24 BB

River: (98.3 BB, 2 players) J
diamond.gif

SB checks, Hero checks

SB shows A
club.gif
Q
spade.gif
(Two Pair, Aces and Queens)
(Pre 7%, Flop 0.1%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows A
heart.gif
A
spade.gif
(Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 93%, Flop 99.9%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 98.3 BB

My question is - if he pushes on the river, can we call?
 
Andrew Popov

Andrew Popov

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I believe that - yes, we have a call on the river. It is for such decisions that it is useful to have statistics on a villain, but I think that his aggressive dynamics of the game makes it possible to speak rather about a good hand made from the flop than about playing with a draw (straight or flush) and getting a card on the river.

By the way, your river is weird. You have a position, and after checking the villain on the river, you had reason to make a small raise to increase the pot. It seems that you have received less money in this hand.
 
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skeptix

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Probably puke and then fold.

Also should talk about the flop. I like slow-playing this hand on dry boards, but this board is very wet, so a big re-raise is the way to go. You would have probably gotten all the money with this line.
 
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zuker

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you have to build big pot on flop because flop is very wet.
he could have FD, SD(KJ, KT, JT) , made hands like two pairs, hands with Q so you need to 3bet on flop and there wont be your question about river
 
JBGoode

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Personally I'm betting more on the flop, a round 4.2, then on a raise, I going like 35BBs. I'm ready to play for stacks, and I dont want to be against a draw....

Cause is a draw gonna come along for half thier stack, or are they gonna jam or fold? Jam or fold right? And we are calling a jam, because we are not resaults oriented, and dont really care if we lose to a draw. If its gonna happen its gonna happen. We have the best hand right now, and we are gonna play it as if it's the best hand....

By doing this we get hands like AQ, QQ, 99 to come along.... and draws should be folding. But you know what is check raising this flop? AQ, QQ, 99, AND DRAWS... there are a ton more draws in thier range then the 3 possibilities that we destroy. By 3Betting the flop, we either get draws to fold, or jam, while everything else is jamming. And we are destroying the obvious jams, and possibly getting the hands that could beat us to fold....

Plus we maximize equity against the hands that are more likely to call us that are practically drawing dead against us.
 
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SirYivx

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After we flop the essential nuts on the wettest board ever and get re-raised, I think clicking it back is the way to go. We are soooo deep that it's very tough to want to play for stacks on a board with so many bad runouts, but we do want to make opponents pay to see the next card and we have great equity here obviously, so I'm popping it back up to like 18-22 BB here on the flop. All straight and flush draws will have to decide if they want to play for stacks and will likely shove on you if they do, which is an easy call. And, in the rare case that we see here, our opponent will be happy to get it in anyway with a hand that we absolutely crush.

EDIT: As played, if opponent were to shove on the river I think we'd have to fold. The only way I'm not folding is if I know my opponent to bluff in these types of spots, but as action went he can VERY easily have a flush or straight here. Would be a super gross spot but I'd lay it down.
 
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JBGoode

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After we flop the essential nuts on the wettest board ever and get re-raised, I think clicking it back is the way to go. We are soooo deep that it's very tough to want to play for stacks on a board with so many bad runouts, but we do want to make opponents pay to see the next card and we have great equity here obviously, so I'm popping it back up to like 18-22 BB here on the flop. All straight and flush draws will have to decide if they want to play for stacks and will likely shove on you if they do, which is an easy call. And, in the rare case that we see here, our opponent will be happy to get it in anyway with a hand that we absolutely crush.

EDIT: As played, if opponent were to shove on the river I think we'd have to fold. The only way I'm not folding is if I know my opponent to bluff in these types of spots, but as action went he can VERY easily have a flush or straight here. Would be a super gross spot but I'd lay it down.
Yea I agree, as played we have to let it go.... but I dont agree with the click back.... we need to try and play for stacks on the flop. Because mathematically we are a virtual flip against a Striaght, or a flush. We have just as meny outs by the river for the board to pair, and they do for a flush or a straight.... yea we could be facing a combo draw, but that's gonna he rear, and if that's the case they dont have the Nut flush draw to they are more likely to fold.... all while hands like AQ, QQ, and 99 are always coming along.
 
SirYivx

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Yea I agree, as played we have to let it go.... but I dont agree with the click back.... we need to try and play for stacks on the flop. Because mathematically we are a virtual flip against a Striaght, or a flush. We have just as meny outs by the river for the board to pair, and they do for a flush or a straight.... yea we could be facing a combo draw, but that's gonna he rear, and if that's the case they dont have the Nut flush draw to they are more likely to fold.... all while hands like AQ, QQ, and 99 are always coming along.


What's your play on the flop vs the min re-raise then? You suggest a bigger re-raise essentially?

EDIT: I do think combo draws like JTd would come along. Sure they lose to bigger flush draws when they hit but we are representing more sets and two pair by re-raising IMO.
 
JBGoode

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What's your play on the flop vs the min re-raise then? You suggest a bigger re-raise essentially?

EDIT: I do think combo draws like JTd would come along. Sure they lose to bigger flush draws when they hit but we are representing more sets and two pair by re-raising IMO.
Well as stated in my comment above, I'm betting around 4.2ish, assuming they use the same sizing they are gonna raise to 8.5 or 9. Then I'm taking it up 35BBs... they shouldnt be just calling off 1/3 of thier stack. They should be jamming or folding. And if by chance they do just call, then I'm jamming all turns regardless of what it is. If I'm beat I'm beat. I still have massive amounts of fold Equity unless they have KdJd. That's the only hand that can play against a large 3bet on the flop that makes since to jam that we dont hold the best equity against. Everything else like AQ, A9, QQ, 99, AK (maybe) we have destroyed, and hands like JT, T8, KT, KJ (not of dimonds) are all folding or jamming and we are a virtual coin flip against with the advatage at the time.
 
SirYivx

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Well as stated in my comment above, I'm betting around 4.2ish, assuming they use the same sizing they are gonna raise to 8.5 or 9. Then I'm taking it up 35BBs... they shouldnt be just calling off 1/3 of thier stack. They should be jamming or folding. And if by chance they do just call, then I'm jamming all turns regardless of what it is. If I'm beat I'm beat. I still have massive amounts of fold Equity unless they have KdJd. That's the only hand that can play against a large 3bet on the flop that makes since to jam that we dont hold the best equity against. Everything else like AQ, A9, QQ, 99, AK (maybe) we have destroyed, and hands like JT, T8, KT, KJ (not of dimonds) are all folding or jamming and we are a virtual coin flip against with the advatage at the time.


Didn't see your above post my apologies. I do like the reasoning though, I don't see many good players just calling a raise that size- either jam or fold. I was thinking more along the lines that we do want to make opponents pay to draw, but we don't want to scare them away completely. IE we want draws to pay us. Do you think you lose value when they fold or are you happy to take it right there?
 
JBGoode

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Didn't see your above post my apologies. I do like the reasoning though, I don't see many good players just calling a raise that size- either jam or fold. I was thinking more along the lines that we do want to make opponents pay to draw, but we don't want to scare them away completely. IE we want draws to pay us. Do you think you lose value when they fold or are you happy to take it right there?
I'm happy, cause the majority that is Jamming we have destroyed, and the majority of what is folding could still beat us.
 
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mara2259

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I think if the villain is not a maniac, in the current situation he would not push. Board cards are a threat to both players. That is why, having quite strong hands after the river, both checked:bebored:
 
D

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UTG: 93.88 BB
UTG+1: 125.36 BB
MP: 92 BB
MP+1: 108.27 BB
CO: 88.25 BB
Hero (BTN): 98 BB
SB: 107.38 BB
BB: 89.13 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A
heart.gif
A
spade.gif


fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.75 BB, SB calls 2.25 BB, fold

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) A
diamond.gif
Q
heart.gif
9
diamond.gif

SB checks, Hero bets 3.4 BB, SB raises to 7 BB, Hero calls 3.6 BB

Turn: (20.5 BB, 2 players) T
heart.gif

SB bets 13.67 BB, Hero raises to 38.9 BB, SB calls 25.24 BB

River: (98.3 BB, 2 players) J
diamond.gif

SB checks, Hero checks

SB shows A
club.gif
Q
spade.gif
(Two Pair, Aces and Queens)
(Pre 7%, Flop 0.1%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows A
heart.gif
A
spade.gif
(Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 93%, Flop 99.9%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 98.3 BB

My question is - if he pushes on the river, can we call?


When they call oop on the flop and check-raise the flop that is typically a sign of a flush draw, top pair+. You have a big lead, and I'm almost tempted to see if I can 3Bet them on the flop, because that will define their hand well. Also, even though they will know you are repping a strong hand AQ is ahead of hands in your range including AJ-, KQ, Q9. You could also have a flush draw, which makes them even more likely to make you pay when they have top 2 pair. If they have a flush draw they won't continue on a flop 3 bet, likely. As played, for them to lead on the turn and then call your raise, to me, signifies a strong hand, not a flush draw. When that diamond comes, I think you should be betting in case they think you are bluffing a missed draw. If they shove, I think you call.
 
Jacki Burkhart

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At first glance the Jd looks like a terrible card that we have to fold to....however when you stop to replay how we got here....I can't think of any hand that villain actually has that can bet for value now.
If he pushes river what is he repping? Which hands raised the flop and then also called a sizeable raise on the turn? which Kx does that? do any flush draws do that?

I can think of essentially ZERO Kx that would do that. AK possibly if player is very bad however he would have also had to flat AK in the SB vs a button raise. I think Kx is out.

which diamond combos can he have? KTdd? that's about it. and I'm really not sure about the KQdd? (again that might be raised preflop).

I can only think of reasonably 2 combos that beat you that stand all the heat on the flop and turn.....meanwhile he could be bluffing or overvaluing 2pair or a set (would be pretty dumb to do so....but I suppose he could).

it would suck to call...but I think because we are near the top of our range and are getting a good price it's OK to suck it up and call river. we don't like it but we will win more than the 25% that is required.
 
K

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I generally like the play overall, wouldn't change anything too drastically. There's definitely an argument for re-raising postflop, but at that point he could simply think you are c-betting and trying to play aggressively at you. By the turn, it's extremely likely that he has 2 pair or a set. Especially after he calls your raise to 39 BB. Are there any drawing hands making that call with 1 card to go? Maybe J 10 of diamonds, but I think that hand makes a bigger raise on the flop. Going to the river, I'm expecting 99, AQ, or A9. I don't think A9 or AQ would call a river jam anyways, so I like checking down the river. If SB jammed river, I would hate it until I saw the result...but it's definitely a call. You're either looking at a dreadful turn call with AK, or maybe KJ of hearts or diamonds as the only hands that beat you. I think all of those are less likely than 99, AQ, or A9 though.
 
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crimsonshroud88

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I'm quite surprised not much attention has been paid to the min-rase on the flop (or I might have missed it). Usually, it won't be a draw type of a hand to play like this.
I honestly believe that this is quite a crucial piece.
I'd also discount at least partially QQ, AQ and 99 as possible 3bets preflop.
Taken into an account that we block AQ, I'd be expecting to see two combos of Q9s.
Regards.
 
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sirrupetot

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That min raise usualy means a strong made hand or a bluf so i would've reraised him on flop and move in on Turn or on turn i definetly will raise a lot bigger or shove 2 make him pay with his draws
 
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