$5 NLHE MTT Bounty: Final Table - early bust (again!)

[MissVix]

Hey all,

Another final table another early bust. I want to think it was standard but I'm kicking myself for being the first to leave so maybe not.

We were 2-3 orbits in - the big stacks were forcing us to push or fold and whenever I was in EP, the short stack directly to my right stole my thunder so I'd only had one chance to make a move. As a result I'd started with 115k, dropped to 88k and after my one shove was 107k.

Dealt AQ, I'd already decided it was good enough to call a shove from shorty as well as shove myself. That said, I nearly folded due to the Q kicker - if shorty had a K then I'm giving away circa 10% equity and going from a 2:1 fave to flipping.


GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - 3,000/6,000 (750 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

6b5eedab (UTG): 154,616 (26 bb)
3fcf88f (UTG+1): 168,873 (28 bb)
b507892c (MP): 79,002 (13 bb)
Hero (MP+1): 107,746 (18 bb)
4dec8369 (LP): 297,829 (50 bb)
f71a20e7 (CO): 386,419 (64 bb)
a835c947 (BU): 215,793 (36 bb)
8e090a01 (SB): 353,968 (59 bb)
6c3329b2 (BB): 255,754 (43 bb)

Pre-Flop: (15,750) Hero (Hero) is MP+1 with Q♦ A♥
2 players fold, b507892c (MP) raises to 78,252 (all-in), Hero (MP+1) 3-bets to 106,996 (all-in), 3 players fold, 8e090a01 (SB) calls 103,996, 1 fold

Flop: (304,994) T♠ K♣ 2♠ (3 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (304,994) T♣ (3 players, 2 all-in)

River: (304,994) T♦ (3 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: 304,994

Showdown:
Hero (MP+1) shows Q♦ A♥ (three of a kind, Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 38%, Flop: 40%, Turn: 31%, River: 0%)

b507892c (MP) shows 9♣ 9♥ (a full house, Tens full of Nines)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 44%, Flop: 52%, Turn: 64%, River: 100%)

8e090a01 (SB) shows 8♦ 8♣ (a full house, Tens full of Eights)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 17%, Flop: 8%, Turn: 5%, River: 0%)

b507892c (MP) wins 247,506
8e090a01 (SB) wins 57,488

 

[thehangdude]

I don't see anything wrong with your play. You could have waited for a better spot and maybe even outlasted a few players. But that spot might have never came. It so often comes down to who wins most coin tosses, or even who sucks out. You got it in with a 40% chance to triple up and move from short stack to big stack. Cannot fault yourself for that.

 

[andrestc]

How is the payout structure on these? It is a pretty relevant information when considering this situation; how good is to ladder now?

With so many people left to act, I think I could let AQo go in this situation. His range in MP should be somewhat good. I may call AQs in this situation.

Yes, a better situation may no arise but you may also get some free ladders because population does not normally take ICM into consideraton. I wouldnt be so worried about your stack size going up and down.

 

[MissVix]

I don't see anything wrong with your play. You could have waited for a better spot and maybe even outlasted a few players. But that spot might have never came. You got it in with a 40% chance to triple up and move from short stack to big stack. Cannot fault yourself for that.

Thanks. That was my feeling, too.In push/fold territory I feel confident with A10+ is a strong favourite if called and not unhappy to shove A5+/K10+

How is the payout structure on these?

With so many people left to act, I think I could let AQo go in this situation. His range in MP should be somewhat good. I may call AQs in this situation.

Yeah, but he's not calling, he's shoving and that's a big difference. Also, the table dynamic was that unless a big stack had junk in EP, first to play was shoving to take down the blinds. The only time this varied was when a big stack tangled with another in which case it was a 3x raise but even then it was rare to see a flop. In a reversal of standard strategy, first to act had the best of it as it requires a hand to call and the desire to risk their tourney chances so I don't feel that his play from MP didn't indicate strength.

Based on his behaviour on the previous table, unless he was in LP he was likely only pushing 66+, K10+, A9+ in EP/MP - the vast majority of which have only 50% at the most against AQ. Add to this he was down to 10bb and being as pinned back as I was.

I'm happy to shove AQ, confident that I'm rarely getting called, I'm in good shape if I am, and that no one would call 2 all-ins. My concern, hence this thread, is calling with AQ given the fact you need a better hand to call with than to push with. That said, with only 107k (18bb), folding cost 12k in blinds and antes just to get to the button - over 10% of my stack - and even then I'm going to be under pressure by raises from EP/MP/LP so my stack was disappearing in front of my eyes.

I know we have to make hero calls to make it to the final table but does it still hold true once you're at it? It's one thing to push AK or 99 but should we call with them when we're 50/50 at best? Do we need to be more measured at the FT and focus on pay jumps? Can we afford to get blinded down to 8-10bb and still have enough fold equity given the relatively shallow stacks and our opponent's desires to make the top 3 spots?

 

[fundiver199]

Spots like this is, what ICMizer is for, and they give you a free daily calculation just for signing up. I am playing right now, and its not allowed to use the program, while the poker client is open. So I suggest, that OP plug in the hand herself, and then come back and tell us the results. It will be good practice, and as a serious tournament player you really need to use a program like ICMizer for push-fold calculations.

I am guessing though, that AQo will be close but recommended as a fold. And the reason is, that when the short stack is already at risk, we generally need to step aside and bank on him busting, and we are also risking quite a few chips against 5 players behind us. So probably ICMizer will want AK to overjam, or maybe AQs is good enough. An outcome like this, where someone behind calls, the short stack scoops the main pot, and we lose the side pot as well, is a bit of an ICM disaster.

Since its a bounty tournament, the size of the bounty on short stacks head will matter though. It he had collected a really juicy bounty (assuming its a PKO) before losing some of his chips, then AQo is probably good enough to go "bounty hunting", since this is just as important as the small payjumps at the beginning of the final table.

 

[ZenGreen]

ALL NIGHT LONG, Nice, this the dream scenerio, 2 overs and chance to 3x up at FT. and you only have 18bb, dont be calling here, dont be doing anything except what you did!!!!!!

plus you are the 2 bottom stacks, what ICM yall worried about

 

[MissVix]

dont be calling here, dont be doing anything except what you did!!!!!!

But I did call so was that wrong or right?

 

[ZenGreen]

You ISO raised all in . and then the SB 3bet all in. wasnt anyone calling here

This hand is so right is it cant be wrong!!! IF you just CALLED that would of been horrendous

 

[monkey23]

But I did call so was that wrong or right?

with AQ against 2 oppos you have a decent chance...and unless one of them has aa kk qq or ak you have the correct odds to call...probably. You will probably be flipping against a pair ( or two) most times in this situation.

But on the ft, with a shortish stack with the implied ev if you hit, your play is probably correct imo.
Sometimes your'e the dog...sometimes the tree.

don't overvalue AT and AJ in this spot though...and always remember, patiently laddering up is a very important part of final table strategy.

well played on getting to the final table. Have you taken a tourney down yet..?? if not, keep plugging away and the win will come.

run good, and may the farce be with ya

 

[fundiver199]

But I did call so was that wrong or right?

I plugged your hand into ICMizer telling the program, it was an 1.100 man MTT on GG Poker. And the NASH equilibrium actually does have you overjamming AQo and also AJs. So if all your opponents were playing perfect GTO poker, then this was the right play. However it is my experience, that the general population in low stakes MTTs does two things wrong in situations like this:

1) They are not open jamming wide enough as the short stack.

2) They are calling to much as a big stack especially in situations, where multible people are all in.

In this situation the NASH equilibrium has MP jamming 16% of hands, and I would say, that most players probably jam something like 10% rather than 16%. 99 is included in a 10% range, so him having this hand does not give us information either way. But if we lock his range at 10%, which I think is very realistic, then you need AK to overjam, as I originally wrote.

Just as importantly the players behind are only supposed to overcall with 2% of hands, which is basically JJ+. But in reality nobody in a 5$ MTT fold AK in this spot, as they are supposed to. Which is obviously very bad, when you are jamming AQ, because then you absolutely want AK to fold. And we actually know, that at least one of them called to wide, since he showed us 88, which is way to loose. And even just one of the guys behind being to loose is also enough to make AQ a fold.

So maybe this would have been a good jam on the final table in a highroller tournament, where everyone knew their exact push-fold ranges. But in anything, most of us actually play, people are making mistakes, which makes this an unprofitable play. You shared the hand, because you felt, that maybe you should have folded here, and that feeling was right. If you can find a fold in spots like this, you will see better results on the final table in the future. I hope this long analysis helped

 

[MissVix]

I plugged your hand into ICMizer telling the program, it was an 1.100 man MTT on GG Poker. And the NASH equilibrium actually does have you overjamming AQo and also AJs. So if all your opponents were playing perfect GTO poker, then this was the right play. However it is my experience, that the general population in low stakes MTTs does two things wrong in situations like this:

I have no idea what ICMizer is or NASH equilibrium. I will look into them but a brief explanation would help. I thought poker sites can tell when you're running ICM analysers and will ban you for doing so?

 

[fundiver199]

The NASH equilibrium are the ranges, where nobody are losing or winning, if everyone stick to them. So you could call them the game theory optimal (GTO) ranges for preflop push or fold spots. ICMizer is a program, that can calculate these ranges. Most poker sites dont allow the use of ICMizer during play, but for obvious reasons they can not prevent people from working with this or other programs (like solvers) away from the tables to improve their game.

So what you do is basically, that you collect your hand histories in a tracker and mark those hands, you would like to look at later. And then after the session, you can import the hand history into ICMizer and run the analysis. Or, as I did here, you can enter the stack sizes manually. ICMizer gives you a free daily calculation, and a yearly subscription is around 100$. Next after a tracker this is the most important piece of software for a serious tournament player.

 

[Sbrzz]

It is a risk that is taken, depending on the payout structure I prefer to fold that hand, and even though there are 5 players left.
Especially because, being a final table, 18bb ​​still has a lot of game.