$5 NLHE 9-pl SNG: 55 UTG on Bubble

[Stick66]

The 2 big stacks have been wild with their chips. Playing mediocre hands like KT like they are the nuts PF and TP-weak kicker like it is bullet proof. Now even more so since they aquired big stacks. The short stack is nitty tight. He has been below 1K chips about 3 times and doubled up since we have been getting such good odds to call him from the blinds.

I have been shoving hands like AJ and 88 since those guys are likely to call with lessor hands most of the time. But I've been getting all folds most of the time since they respect me. I got 55 this time and thought I'd do it again. But my luck ran out.

I know this is a horrible play, but I just want to know different opinions on why it is so horrible. Implied odds, bubble play, and stuff like that. I just need a different perspective. Thanks.

FullTiltPoker Game #6925617624: $5 + $0.50 Sit & Go (52634289), Table 1 - 150/300 - No Limit Hold'em - 11:26:57 ET - 2008/06/22
Seat 4: TrixXarNswe (4,165)
Seat 7: Avac412 (5,875)
Seat 8: mike hoppy (1,570)
Seat 9: MrSticker (1,890)
TrixXarNswe posts the small blind of 150
Avac412 posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MrSticker [5s 5d]
mike hoppy folds
MrSticker raises to 1,890, and is all in
TrixXarNswe folds
Avac412 calls 1,590
MrSticker shows [5s 5d]
Avac412 shows [Jc Js]
*** FLOP *** [6c Qd 6d]
*** TURN *** [6c Qd 6d] [4s]
*** RIVER *** [6c Qd 6d 4s] [8c]
MrSticker shows two pair, Sixes and Fives
Avac412 shows two pair, Jacks and Sixes
Avac412 wins the pot (3,930) with two pair, Jacks and Sixes
MrSticker stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3,930 | Rake 0
Board: [6c Qd 6d 4s 8c]
Seat 4: TrixXarNswe (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 7: Avac412 (big blind) showed [Jc Js] and won (3,930) with two pair, Jacks and Sixes
Seat 8: mike hoppy didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: MrSticker (button) showed [5s 5d] and lost with two pair, Sixes and Fives

 

[Jillychemung]

I can't blame ya for shoving here BUT you might have gotten better advice if you would have stopped the HH preflop and asked the question then.

You either have to shove or fold as your M=4 and you have lousy position w/ the 2 big stacks behind ya. I think that with these stack sizes you probably should be looking for 3rd place and letting the big stacks attack Seat 8. You might look up an ICM calculator and see what it says but I suspect it will be to fold here.

 

[Stick66]

Yeah, I usually post my HH's without results. But I know I should have folded here, so I just want to know why. I've got all 3 HOH's, but only read vol 1. So I guess I'm gonna have to learn more about the "M" factor now. LOL

 

[pokertime911]

Ya thats poker blinds were big enough where that is a position to push. the only hand that beat ya was a upper pair. Most the time you will pick up the blinds that way but what can I say thats poker.

 

[Stick66]

Crap. I just realized I was the button and NOT UTG (musta been thinking of another hand). But that doesn't change much except that the short stack folded. Sorry.

 

[KyleJRM]

M of four, double-up gives you a stack that could potentially win. Shovity shove shove for me.

 

[CfPoker]

I don't see this as a bad play. You have a small M, and with only 2 players behind you probably the best hand. You even said they've been folding to your shoves, so it's best to shove now whilst you have some FE rather than blind down to where they have pot odds to call with ATC.

 

[dsvw56]

This is actually a pretty clear fold guys, unless the blinds are calling ridiculously tight. Since this is a $5 SnG and they have lots of chips, I doubt that is the case. I ran it through SnG Wiz and the SB has be calling ~10% and the BB ~14% before it starts showing a profit and those ranges are crazy tight,imo.

 

[ChuckTs]

Well SNG Wiz says it's a fold, but it's far from a 'terrible' play, Stick.

If you're serious about stts go and buy an ICM calculator like sngwiz and punch these types of hands in where you're not sure about what to do. I was going to say it should be a shove, but after punching it in and realizing the stack sizes (as well as your pushy-ish image) I think I agree we should be folding this.

edit: what dsvw said.

 

[dj11]

I see this as a battle between M and ICM.

M probably favors shove, ICM says fold.

lol, 90% of the time your gonna be a 52% favorite over random cards. Can't fault either play here.

 

[dsvw56]

If we were slightly shorter, like 1200-1500, I'd say it's a clear push(regardless of what ICM says) because we couldn't afford to go through the blinds again. As it stands though, we have enough chips to try to survive the blinds once more, and hopefully pick a spot with a bigger edge.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

this is one of those situations where you give the short stack 100 more chips and i'm happy saying shove, give him 100 less chips and i'm happy saying fold. sng bubble play can often be counter-intuitive in that with just over 5bb it appears that we should be shoving most hands to retain some future fold equity, but the presence of the other short stack (who the blinds hit before they hit us) changes that.

edit: basically what ^ said i guess.

 

[viking999]

Yeah, it's not really a clear fold or a clear shove.

The main argument for fold would be that your fold equity is low (the big stacks being so loose) and you only have a slight edge on the blinds' calling ranges. Another argument is that the shorter stack is in the blinds before you.

However, as I expressed in the recent satellite thread, folding here is pretty much resigning yourself to a coin flip for 3rd place. You might have a 60/40 edge, but not more than that. Plus, you will have next to no chance at first or even second.

So shoving will usually result in fewer cashes, but more of those will be for the big money. I'm going to lean slightly towards shove, but maybe that's because I'm an action junkie.

 

[Kenzie 96]

I can't see this as a horrible play. You are one of those players who pay attention at the table, trust your gut.

 

[Stick66]

Wow! Then my play here might not be as bad as I thought. Good.

I guess I was being a bit results-oriented afterwards and didn't know it. The way I interpret the responses here is that my shove was slightly more warranted due to my stack size. A slightly bigger stack would have made the shove less warranted. But then my position behind the short stack made things a bit less shove-worthy, but not too much.

Probably a bit much for me to process at that moment, but I'll try to file all this away in my noggin for quicker access in the future. Thanks to all who responded.

 

[l Love Beer]

I've got all 3 HOH's, but only read vol 1. So I guess I'm gonna have to learn more about the "M" factor now. LOL

With an M of 4, and effective M of about 1.7 I'm sure harrington would recommend shoving any 2 cards here (while your stack can still cause some damage to the blinds... cutting the small blind into 2/3 and the BB in half). And with a PP i would be instashoving, bubble or not. In just 2 more revolutions your stack will be 1K, giving BB odds to call with almost any two cards without much threat to his stack and with the potential of bursting the bubble. In 8 hands of 4 handed play i really don't see you picking up a hand much better than 55. All these things considered i believe you made the right play, and just unfortunately ran into another PP.