$5 MTT mid/late stage play with JJ

[Ben_UK]

full tilt poker Game #5257992626: $5 + $0.50 Knockout (39872664), Table 73 - 120/240 Ante 25 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:38:39 ET - 2008/02/14
Seat 1: RakinItSince86 (16,000)
Seat 2: gubbie (14,055)
Seat 3: Ben_UK (13,025)
Seat 4: nickdoit (6,475)
Seat 5: bgslik33 (3,085)
Seat 6: ricknkym (11,650), is sitting out
Seat 7: pil347 (8,085)
Seat 8: HootzenBootzen (1,705)
Seat 9: Republican528 (3,455)
RakinItSince86 antes 25
gubbie antes 25
Ben_UK antes 25
nickdoit antes 25
bgslik33 antes 25
ricknkym antes 25
pil347 antes 25
HootzenBootzen antes 25
Republican528 antes 25
bgslik33 posts the small blind of 120
ricknkym posts the big blind of 240
bgslik33: whew
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ben_UK [Jd Js]
pil347 folds
bgslik33: I got one
HootzenBootzen folds
Republican528 folds
RakinItSince86 folds
gubbie folds
Ben_UK raises to 600
nickdoit folds
bgslik33 raises to 3,060, and is all in
ricknkym folds
Ben_UK calls 2,460
bgslik33 shows [Ks Ah]
Ben_UK shows [Jd Js]
*** FLOP *** [2d Ac 9s]
*** TURN *** [2d Ac 9s] [5c]
*** RIVER *** [2d Ac 9s 5c] [4c]
Ben_UK: every time
bgslik33 shows a pair of Aces
Ben_UK shows a pair of Jacks
bgslik33 wins the pot (6,585) with a pair of Aces
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 6,585 | Rake 0
Board: [2d Ac 9s 5c 4c]
Seat 1: RakinItSince86 folded before the Flop
Seat 2: gubbie folded before the Flop
Seat 3: Ben_UK showed [Jd Js] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 4: nickdoit (button) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: bgslik33 (small blind) showed [Ks Ah] and won (6,585) with a pair of Aces
Seat 6: ricknkym (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 7: pil347 folded before the Flop
Seat 8: HootzenBootzen folded before the Flop
Seat 9: Republican528 folded before the Flop

Should I have called his all in or folded? Lack of information on the player as moved to that table recently.

 

[Jillychemung]

Personally I let this go here. JJ is just too far behind his range, TT+, AQ+

 

[SubT33]

I think this was a good call. Everyone folded in front of you and you opened for a raise. It looked like a steal so the bgslik could have easily been on a re-steal with a far inferior holding. Even if you credit him with a real hand, a troubled stack such as his, is looking for any decent type of hand to make a move with, so again I think you can credit him with a sub-premium holding. In this situation, I think that you are ahead the vast majority of the time, which you were in this case, 56%, not by much, but you were ahead. And you can afford it. I think it was the right call.

 

[Ben_UK]

That was my main point, was the call too big for the odds I'd be likely to get but I suppose 20% (ish) for a 56% chance is favourable although I'm sure my PPs get cracked with overcards more often than not.

Well my stack went right right down after a bad play but I just doubled up with 99 against 77 and back to 32nd out of 117 going on the second break.

 

[SubT33]

Personally I let this go here. JJ is just too far behind his range, TT+, AQ+

He's actually way ahead of TT (82% to 18%) and slightly ahead of AQ (56% to 44%) and AK (56% to 44%).

 

[SeanyJ]

Since he is a short stack at the table he could be shoving with any ace or a low pair. I think I would probably make the call here unless he had been playing pretty tight.

 

[Jillychemung]

He's actually way ahead of TT (82% to 18%) and slightly ahead of AQ (56% to 44%) and AK (56% to 44%).

Nope he's a dog to the range

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.876% 45.83% 01.04% 44732566 1018733.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 53.124% 52.08% 01.04% 50831296 1018733.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

 

[SeanyJ]

I think you're range is a little too small, we are talking about a short stack with an M less than 6.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.934% 35.45% 00.49% 124431920 1704811.00 { 55+, A7s+, KTs+, QTs+, A7o+, KTo+ }
Hand 1: 64.066% 63.58% 00.49% 223180778 1704811.00 { JdJs }

This could be a little loose but I think it's more likely that he could be pushing pretty much any pair or paint.

 

[Jillychemung]

I think my range is pretty good considering his table talk just before his bet and that he is pushing over a bigger stack that raised. His comment while maybe meant to say he was getting it in with a marginal hand usually mean they have a good hand.

bgslik33: I got one

 

[Eman885]

Personally I let this go here. JJ is just too far behind his range, TT+, AQ+

Why is his range TT+ and AQ+? In my opinion, the villain has a much larger range in this situation. Villain has a little more than 10BB and is raised from the cutoff. In my opinion, his range is 77+ and A10+. Since Ben has a nice stack size i don't mind the call at all here. Anyone who gets rid of this hand here better have a great read on the player otherwise they are just playing weak-tight.

 

[vanquish]

what stage of the tournament is this (how far from money, how many left, etc)?

 

[Jillychemung]

Why is his range TT+ and AQ+? In my opinion, the villain has a much larger range in this situation. Villain has a little more than 10BB and is raised from the cutoff. In my opinion, his range is 77+ and A10+. Since Ben has a nice stack size i don't mind the call at all here. Anyone who gets rid of this hand here better have a great read on the player otherwise they are just playing weak-tight.

As posted just before yours, based on his table talk and that he is coming over our raise. Course what his stats were prior to this would help nail it down. If his VPIP was <20 it just reinforces that his range is tight.

 

[SubT33]

...If his VPIP was <20 it just reinforces that his range is tight.

Yeah and if my Aunt was a man she'd be my uncle...but I do agree with you that his table talk probably does mean he has a big hand. He figures that people will think "he wouldn't tell us he has a strong hand, so he must be weak." So he counters by saying he has a good hand when he actually does. On that point, I agree with you Chemung.

 

[Eman885]

As posted just before yours, based on his table talk and that he is coming over our raise. Course what his stats were prior to this would help nail it down. If his VPIP was <20 it just reinforces that his range is tight.

Either way, laying down this hand is just a bad play. If villain has AK or AQ then it is a coinflip and Ben has the right odds to call. So basically if you lay this down you better be sure your opponent has AA, KK, or QQ and i don't think you can be guaranteed that a shortstack in the small blind facing a raise from the cutoff has one of those three hands.

 

[Ben_UK]

Thinking about it, I'm making this call every time. I need a double up sharpish if I'm going to make the final table and make a dent at it.

He could easily have AK/AQ and I'd expect most shortstacks to push with that against a raise from a aggressive player. I'm a 56% favourite against unsuited so I think it's a definite push and I think if I found similar hands where I've called a short stack's all in with JJ it's been profitable.