$5.50 NLHE STT: QQ with Big stack, could you have gotten away?

[Minikiwi9]

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/2qhVg54

I've chipped up quite a bit in this SNG (hooray!) I had been rather aggressive and have an aggressive image thanks to hitting the deck.

And.. well do answer my own question. I think it's a firm yes. as played, I could possibly fold turn and definitely on the river, however both of these are suboptimal to what I think is the best line after thinking about this for a day.

Typically, and what I think is correct here as well, a small continuation bet on the flop, would help me lose the least. It feels a bit odd typing that but I feel pretty good that it is correct. If I bet a 200-300 sizing, he likely check raising me which would make it a pretty simple fold.

However as played, me checking back and induces bluffs, putting myself in a guess game, and even now thinking about it, checking back maybe isn't a terrible line but I need to know when I'm beat but as stated I feel its easier with a Cbet on the flop.

Even on the Cbet if V just calls, I can likely see a free river, and make a decision at that point, which still feels better to me than how I played.

Did I miss something? Would anyone else play it any different? Would love to hear some thoughts about this one both as played and optimal lines

 

[moulan7]

That guy called a 3.5x 3bet out of position with K10s... ooook xD.

No, I like your check back on flop. You judge because the outcome was bad for your holding but checking back when an overcard is on the flop is a safe option and you have showdown value as well.
You should bet if you have no showdown value xD but not when you have and you hope for him to raise you xD.
Your call on the turn looks standard, although here your opponent is committed to the pot and he'll put the rest of his chips in on the river 100%. I guess you could consider to even fold the turn and let it go. The king hits his range pretty hard and even 1010, 99, QJs (you block it of course) are possible. Your hand of course is pretty good as a bluff catcher and the board has many draws on turn. Tough decision.


Since you called the turn and river is a blank I guess you have to call again. You already know that on the turn because of his stack size.
I think the best option was to fold the turn (I don't know if I could do it xD, I think depends on my opponent's style and tendencies) and wait for better spots.

 

[fundiver199]

It is sort of rough with an SPR of less than 1,5. But I agree, that maybe we can lose only one bet here, be it by C-betting the flop or calling his turn bet. When he go all in on the river, we only need to be good one out of four times, but is he really bluffing that often for his tournament life? Probably not.

 

[jaworek1405]

Hello, in this situation you are a chipleader and you have over 80bb in stack. So I play a little differently this QQ. Pre flop I 3bet 400-500, because blinds are very small. On the flop when I'm aggressor I always play cbet for about 50-67% of the pot. When you check the flop better players can think that you haven't top pair, because it seems that you afraid something on the flop. When you cbet on the flop your opponent can think that you have top pair and he usually should fold his hand when he has air. This time he caught two pair. If he check/call the flop I usually fold to his bet on the turn, often opponent will be have top pair on the flop. As played - I agree with fundiver199, on the river definitely fold is the best option, because he usually will not bluff you for his tournament life.

 

[mara2259]

You are too fascinated by your two ladies and do not notice anything around. You provoke the villain who is preparing a trap for you to bluff. A raise of 3/4 pot is not at all like a bluff, most likely a bet in the continuation. And since it fits your plan, you keep throwing chips. After 3 on the river, pure bluffing is ruled out because it is hard to imagine a less sane hand that the villain is trying to portray. Several street options are possible. With 78, he would hardly have entered the game with a mini-raise, much less would not have answered your raise. With a JQ and a straight made check after the flop, and then a raise and an all-in, it looks a little weird. Therefore, he has something. Most likely, out of curiosity, you decided to pay his hand, since in this situation you can only beat a pair of 1010 or 99 with an ace as a kicker. To minimize your losses, you should make sure the strength of your ladies after the flop. Good luck!

 

[Brawo]

I like preflop raise, sizeing is good.

On the flop you should make a c-bet, why? because if you check, and call turn you haven't obtained any information about his range, kings is in your range, but second-barrel from him on the river? He probably have sth, king is very likely here, at least.

Your call on the turn was right because you had a gut shot straight draw + queens of course and prize was low.

Good luck!

 

[300HPGOD]

I would generally C bet the flop in this spot as if we are betting with bluffs here we should also be betting with hits or with made hands. From there the hand would play differently of course since he might check raise you or he might just call and then you can play the turn accordingly. Probably still lose two bets with this line and probably be effectively all in. I dont like calling the river jam as played unless you have a history with the opponent and know they are capable of bluffing. I would say overall with the SPR being very small the chips are probably getting in the middle but maybe with a C bet you find out sooner that you are beat.

 

[Nr98]

I like preflop raise, sizeing is good.

On the flop you should make a c-bet, why? because if you check, and call turn you haven't obtained any information about his range, kings is in your range, but second-barrel from him on the river? He probably have sth, king is very likely here, at least.

Your call on the turn was right because you had a gut shot straight draw + queens of course and prize was low.

Good luck!

Sizing pre is definitely too big given the effective stack at the table is 20bb. I'd aim more around 2.7x (although if we think Villain is completely inelastic who cares just size up). If(!) we decide to 3bet that is. On these stacks this is a simple jam imo.

As played though, I see no way we can be folding Queens in a 1.5 SPR pot (meaning we got less then 1.5 times the effective stack behind on the flop). Yes he's got Kx every now and then but we also stack Tx, JJ, And Ax that decides to play like this. Too low SPR to fold I think.

But the bottom line is, don't put yourself in this spot. The real mistake is preflop, just jam and we're all good

 

[Ianmacca99]

I don't mind the check back on the flop but it does cap your range to look like QQ JJ or smaller pair.
As played think you can look to get away on the river as what hand would call a 3 bet then proceed to barrel turn and river on that board for value you block combos of QJ so it either K10s KJs or 99 possibly slow played 10s but with his stack I think 9s and 10s are going in pre. Call turn fold river in my opinion

 

[TheDude6622]

The K10 in early position min-raise is such an odd open and calling a strong 3bet is even weirder. I like the check back on the flop and once they bet the turn, that's when they are trying to get value. QQ is a very good hand but a fold-able hand on this board texture on the turn for sure.

 

[eetenor]

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/2qhVg54

I've chipped up quite a bit in this SNG (hooray!) I had been rather aggressive and have an aggressive image thanks to hitting the deck.

And.. well do answer my own question. I think it's a firm yes. as played, I could possibly fold turn and definitely on the river, however both of these are suboptimal to what I think is the best line after thinking about this for a day.

Typically, and what I think is correct here as well, a small continuation bet on the flop, would help me lose the least. It feels a bit odd typing that but I feel pretty good that it is correct. If I bet a 200-300 sizing, he likely check raising me which would make it a pretty simple fold.

However as played, me checking back and induces bluffs, putting myself in a guess game, and even now thinking about it, checking back maybe isn't a terrible line but I need to know when I'm beat but as stated I feel its easier with a Cbet on the flop.

Even on the Cbet if V just calls, I can likely see a free river, and make a decision at that point, which still feels better to me than how I played.

Did I miss something? Would anyone else play it any different? Would love to hear some thoughts about this one both as played and optimal lines

Thank U 4 Posting

I have not read your full post yet and have stopped the replayer preflop

So what range of hands do you give a 30bb stack that calls your 3 bet OOP?

Do your V's call to set mine without the right odds OOP?

Do your V's call with to many AJ-AX hands in that spot?

Do your V's expect folds when they 4 bet AA KK?

Your V has 23bb and the pot is 15bb does your V think they can get you to fold by shove bluffing flop?

Have you experimented with 3x R +100 +50 +25= 475 instead of 350?
Do you know why bigger is better is becoming the new trend, again?

If V puts you on AA KK QQ JJ AK AQ what cracker hands should V be calling with?

Replayer flop

If we go back and look at the range we gave V for calling preflop what is the best action for us on that flop when checked to?

Eg if V calls pre with 22-99 do we ever get another chip without them making a set?

V has AQ do we want to give that hand a free card? QJ? J10 A10?

Who has the range Advantage? The nut Advantage?

Which is an easier play for the V a check raise bluff on the flop or a bad for us card lead shove on the turn?

Replayer Turn

What does the V think we have?

Ok so what does the V have?

sets -straights- Kx -combo draw?

Could this be a 2 barrel bluff set up?

Would this V call pre with 87? Many players play that hand as an AA killer.

I am slowly replaying this hand and now, (not in the heat of the moment when it would be harder), I have no clear plan of action because we checked the flop.

Without more data and at your buy-in level I would fold right here.
The V bet half pot that is so standard a bet we can get nothing from it.
The V is betting into the biggest stack that could easily call which should be strong value but the V might only be thinking half pot that is a good bluff size.
Or the V could be thinking the big stack will call with QQ JJ for that bet when the turn is just a 6.

Let us range the possible nut hands vs our holding our V could have and think they should bet a standard half pot bet vs a big stack who could call easily.

AA KK AK KQ KJ K10 QJ 1010 99 66 87

Semi bluffs: AcJc-AcXc Jc10C- 10c8c 7c5c


We made a mistake on the flop, now no matter what we do it could be a second mistake. We lose money when we make mistakes.

I would have bet flop for 30% pot and folded to a jam vs most V's at your buy-in on this board. Why the fold?

Stack protection. We have a stack advantage in a SNG we do not want to let that go when we are just guessing at what our V has.


Stack protection in this spot is better with a small bet than a check.

(Just read your post in full. Great job reflecting on the hand.)

Hope this helps

 

[SuzdalDEcor]

I like your line. If you cbet flop and he will call, what you will do on the turn?

 

[Nr98]

Sizing pre is definitely too big given the effective stack at the table is 20bb. I'd aim more around 2.7x (although if we think Villain is completely inelastic who cares just size up). If(!) we decide to 3bet that is. On these stacks this is a simple jam imo.

As played though, I see no way we can be folding Queens in a 1.5 SPR pot (meaning we got less then 1.5 times the effective stack behind on the flop). Yes he's got Kx every now and then but we also stack Tx, JJ, And Ax that decides to play like this. Too low SPR to fold I think.

But the bottom line is, don't put yourself in this spot. The real mistake is preflop, just jam and we're all good

Apparently I wasn't too focussed when making this comment. Read the blinds as 50/100 opposed to 25/50. My bad! In that case I still think 3.5x is too big and would rather go for 3x. But obviously with a 40bb stack behind we don't want to be jamming.

If we look at Villains open/call range. He should have 55+, every suited broadway combo, some AKo/AQo, 98s and some suited aces. Being in a 1.5 SPR pot makes it so hard to get away from queens here and not underdefend imo.

We definitely stack 3 combos of ATs, 6 of JJ, and we get stacked by 2 combos of QJs, 2 of KTs, 1 KQs, 3 KJs, 3 66. Making it a total of 9 vs 11.

Then it depends on 3 factors:

• How often does Villain decide to jam 99+ and AQ+ rather than flatting?
• How often does Villain decide to turn his suited aces and underpairs/98s into a bluff?
• Does Villain stack off on 3x JTs and 2x QTs?

Looking at the pot odds we should defend 32% at least. Considering that both most of our kings will be betting the flop, and I can't imagine Villains at this level flatting a lot of their AK/AA/KK in this spot, it so hard to see QQ as a fold here for me. Even if we don't care about our MDF and just want to look at the immediate profitability of the hand, I think we're good here 32% of the time for sure.

Would be nice to see someone run a sim with proper ranges but imo this is a fine call. Having the Qc doesn't block too many FD's that could be turned into a bluff (AcQc and maybe QcTc). Instead we do block quite a bit of KQs and QJs, so I reckon this is a clear call.

Would love to hear any other opinions tho!

 

[Jdjakubisin]

You are going to be throwing chips in anyway, try the idea of "betting to get information." Bet first to see how the guy reacts. A re-raise tells you he has something. Noticing how quick he calls he if that is the case is also a tell I try to use.

That way, you can figure it out and fold if you have to.

 

[bealpoker]

utg should never be raise calling from utg with 25 bbs with KTo, this is very -EV. However you have the Qc! Think about what hands he would be bluffing here? Missed straights such as AJ AQ etc and missed flushes what he was betting on the turn. The Qc blocks the majority of his bluffs here and thus his value:bluff will go up significantly.

He needs to be bluffing here 25% of the time for you to make a profitable call, given the board texture hits your perceived range, he is showing aggression and the fact you have the Qc. This is a close fold on the river, but calling shouldn't be too bad of a play either. GLGL

 

[Nr98]

utg should never be raise calling from utg with 25 bbs with KTo, this is very -EV. However you have the Qc! Think about what hands he would be bluffing here? Missed straights such as AJ AQ etc and missed flushes what he was betting on the turn. The Qc blocks the majority of his bluffs here and thus his value:bluff will go up significantly.

He needs to be bluffing here 25% of the time for you to make a profitable call, given the board texture hits your perceived range, he is showing aggression and the fact you have the Qc. This is a close fold on the river, but calling shouldn't be too bad of a play either. GLGL

While KTo may be a fold, Villain's flat with KTs is completely standard (also a reminder, utg 7 handed plays more similar to UTG+2 full ring ofcourse. Thus ranges are wider). Indeed queens block some bluffs, but it also blocks quite a chunk of villains value range (KQ/QJ). Especially once we assume Villain jams most of his AA/KK/AK (would say quite common in a 5.50 game), this removes a part of his value range.

As for the pot odds part, again I was almost sleeping when I wrote the review. Obviously we need to be right here 25%ish and not 32%. You're completely right in that part. Although to be more complete, Villain doesn't have to be bluffing 25% of the time. We need to beat 25% of Villain's range. Meaning his value bets (AT and JJ etc), are included in this as well.

 

[bealpoker]

While KTo may be a fold, Villain's flat with KTs is completely standard (also a reminder, utg 7 handed plays more similar to UTG+2 full ring ofcourse. Thus ranges are wider). Indeed queens block some bluffs, but it also blocks quite a chunk of villains value range (KQ/QJ). Especially once we assume Villain jams most of his AA/KK/AK (would say quite common in a 5.50 game), this removes a part of his value range.


As for the pot odds part, again I was almost sleeping when I wrote the review. Obviously we need to be right here 25%ish and not 32%. You're completely right in that part. Although to be more complete, Villain doesn't have to be bluffing 25% of the time. We need to beat 25% of Villain's range. Meaning his value bets (AT and JJ etc), are included in this as well.

logical you right, you right. I sort of meant his value range we beat and his bluffs when I said he has to be bluffing 25% of the time, this obviously includes weaker hands he could be value betting - but you cleared that up. However I didn't take into consideration the fact we block his value range aswell as his bluff range which is obviously a good consideration to take into account.

Good insight into the hand. GL at the tables.

 

[Nr98]

logical you right, you right. I sort of meant his value range we beat and his bluffs when I said he has to be bluffing 25% of the time, this obviously includes weaker hands he could be value betting - but you cleared that up. However I didn't take into consideration the fact we block his value range aswell as his bluff range which is obviously a good consideration to take into account.

Good insight into the hand. GL at the tables.

Yeah figured you'd be thinking about that, just clarifying for OP

Indeed the blocker effect is quite interesting here, but I think it blocks a bigger part of his value range than it does of his bluffing range (if we assume most AQs/AK/AA etc is a jam pre). But if anyone feels like running a sim by all means let us know! Would be interesting to see.

Gl to you too mate

 

[ga25x]

i can understand the way u play till the river, but river i believe its very easy fold. river pushjust feels like Kx or even a set .

 

[shatik]

I'm for cambet flop