This is a discussion on $5.50 NLHE STT: $5.50? NLHE STT: Bubble Spot KQo within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/7qhIeKl
Single Table SNG (3 are paid fyi)
Here is an interesting spot, Big stack has been raising and taking pots as he should, and I wake
Here is an interesting spot, Big stack has been raising and taking pots as he should, and I wake up with a decent hand, but also next hand, other V will essentially be all in. Do I gamble here were I likely have V crushed, in hopes of winning tourney? Or do I hope V loses flip and eek itm.
Playing to win, I think its close, AQ, even with ICM I think is a call because I am so short stacked and V could win a flip with his next hand and then I'd be short. Though KQ was interesting. So figured I'd share here.
In this spot its basically a raise between you and the short stack to not be the bubble boy, and therefore folding KQ is the right decision. KQ is rarely far ahead of anything, and even if you call and win, you are still the second shortest stack, so it does not really change anything dramatically.
Snap fold with the shorty at the table behind you. You still have them covered 2:1 and going broke here before you give them a chance to is ICM suicide!
ICM is so important in this spot, that if the big stack went all in the very next hand...I would snap fold AK. You read it right, SNAP FOLD! Only calling off KK+ in that spot. Why?? Because when the big stack has a pair we are in bad shape and if they have a worse hand they are still live and can take us out! So then all the short has to do is fold and save a handful of chips to try and make the $$ while we are at risk of busting and we simply cannot afford the risk of going broke with a 1bb stack coming up in the BB.
I love the fold here, no need to risk it!! Already in the $$, snap shove. Easy game
Edit::: I would venture to say if you ICMIZER this hand, I bet vs NASH the program would tell you to fold AQ and only call off something like KK+ and AKs. I wouldn't be surprised if it had you folding AK as well!
Calling there might increase your chance of winning the STT by 5-10% but is that enough to compensate for the 40% that you will bust vs their range?
Definitely not, since you are just hoping for a mincash in this table dynamic.
As previously stated by JonPoker this is solely an ICM spot and you have to fold every time otherwise you are lowering your ROI too much.
I think this is a fold for a few reasons. One is you are already very low and you really are playing for third anyway even if the other stack to come was bigger than you. Secondly, KQ is good 4 handed but the big blind is going to be calling wide which is not good for you here. If he flips over a middling hand like 9 5 off even you are only good 60% ish of the time and out the other 40%. I would fold and let the big blind be all in the next hand and hope he gets beat.