$5.50 NLHE MTT: Value thinner than Thin Mints!

[6bet]

This hand is about 30 hands into a large field(3000+) MTT on Stars.


https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/924zAIuxd

It folded to me on the BU and I decided to make a looser than normal open into a very loose passive SB who was over folding flops (BB new to table- no reads). I hadn't played a hand in a while.

Decided to check back BPGK and not get too fancy since the unknown BB had overcalled.

The turn gives be top and bottom and since BB went for 25% decided to put in the value raise (don't see any reason to just call here, but open to ideas).

When the BB calls here OOP how do you range him?

I'm thinking KQ-K6 (only losing to KJ and K7 of which there are fewer combos), sets of 77 and 55 which may have tried for the XR on flop (JJ unlikely since just called pre), QT, possibly 86 or 64, or diamond draw (blocking) which got sticky.

Looking back I don't like this river bet. I think bluff catching could be the better play as I have showdown value and there are plenty of hands in his range I am losing to. What are your thoughts?

 

[ibetmyho]

You played it fine. You can't bluff catch as you're in position. Raising the small turn bet with 2 pair is a good raise and I like the small river bet, targeting his single paired Kx which may still call. Villain may even still find a call with Jx.

 

[ssbn743]

This hand is about 30 hands into a large field(3000+) MTT on Stars.


https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/924zAIuxd

It folded to me on the BU and I decided to make a looser than normal open into a very loose passive SB who was over folding flops (BB new to table- no reads). I hadn't played a hand in a while.

Decided to check back BPGK and not get too fancy since the unknown BB had overcalled.

The turn gives be top and bottom and since BB went for 25% decided to put in the value raise (don't see any reason to just call here, but open to ideas).

When the BB calls here OOP how do you range him?

I'm thinking KQ-K6 (only losing to KJ and K7 of which there are fewer combos), sets of 77 and 55 which may have tried for the XR on flop (JJ unlikely since just called pre), QT, possibly 86 or 64, or diamond draw (blocking) which got sticky.

Looking back I don't like this river bet. I think bluff catching could be the better play as I have showdown value and there are plenty of hands in his range I am losing to. What are your thoughts?

Can't say I'm a fan of the open. It could be ok-ish as long as we never get 3-bet, but the SB has a lot of chips and to widen our range to include K5o, we need to generate more fold equity than normal. We only have 60BB's ourselves - so yeah, I think I just fold pre here and find a better spot.

Great check on flop. I can't even tell you how many dumpster fires I see barreling here.

Turn - Perfect

River - Well, I'll give you that the Ad is a scary card, but I don't really think this is thin value. We get value from Ax and Kx and maybe even Jx hands, we block diamonds.

So good bet - I wouldn't mind it being a tad bit bigger, like $2500, but yeah, fine.

 

[QA77]

River is scary but I would bet it most of the time depending on the opponent.

 

[D_godfather]

SSBN if you go much bigger on the river and villian may start to feel its all in or fold? Would we want that?

 

[ssbn743]

SSBN if you go much bigger on the river and villain may start to feel its all in or fold? Would we want that?

I don't really have a strong opinion either way - but I think with stack sizes here, we need to be expecting a jam. As such, we need to decide prior to firing river if we're going to call off - otherwise, take the free check.

On the river, we want our range to be as polarized as possible and choose a size that represents both ends of polarization. We opened K5o, so Q8o is in spec; would we bet $1,374 with Q8o?

Now, what about something like $1,700-$2,500? Villain now knows we've priced ourselves in getting pot odds anywhere from 30% to 22%. If he jams, we can fold Q8o and call K5o - but we made that decision prior to betting river, and by choosing to size a smidge bigger we put Ax and Kx hands in a tough spot with villains stack size.

 

[ssbn743]

BTW - I've been chewing on this one for a few days and finally broke out the spreadsheet. And basically, there is no wrong answer - though I think the math supports a touch higher on the river bet sizing strictly to protect our range.

Attached are two spreadsheets, one with the $1,374 size and one with $2,500 like I had suggested. You'll see that they are both +EV with basically negligible differences.

Also, this is assuming the villain range of
JJ,77,55,AQs-A2s,KJs,QTs,J7s,AQo-A7o,KJo,J7o

Looking at the spreadsheets you'll see only about $300 difference in the EV result between the two river sizes. But you'll notice that betting $1,374 is only slightly (less than $200) better than checking back river. Additionally, by betting $2,500 we can rep our entire range and keep ourselves more balanced.

So, this is what I was trying to say - but didn't do a very good job. I also didn't actually do the math - sorry for the laziness.

 

[6bet]

BTW - I've been chewing on this one for a few days and finally broke out the spreadsheet. And basically, there is no wrong answer - though I think the math supports a touch higher on the river bet sizing strictly to protect our range.

Attached are two spreadsheets, one with the $1,374 size and one with $2,500 like I had suggested. You'll see that they are both +EV with basically negligible differences.

Also, this is assuming the villain range of
JJ,77,55,AQs-A2s,KJs,QTs,J7s,AQo-A7o,KJo,J7o

Looking at the spreadsheets you'll see only about $300 difference in the EV result between the two river sizes. But you'll notice that betting $1,374 is only slightly (less than $200) better than checking back river. Additionally, by betting $2,500 we can rep our entire range and keep ourselves more balanced.

So, this is what I was trying to say - but didn't do a very good job. I also didn't actually do the math - sorry for the laziness.

Awesome! Really appreciate your input