re: Poker & $5.50 NLHE MTT Rebuy: $$5.50 NLHE MTT Rebuy: $$5+0.50 NLHE MTT Rebuy: What would you do?
This deep in the tournament just because others are shoving doesnt mean you need to follow suit. Fish and inexperienced players open shove 25+ BB stacks - dont be one of those guys, your stack is large enough where the only likely hands that will call you are hands that beat you - JJ is a prime example. At least you were flipping but overall you took an unnecessary risk and it came back to haunt you - I've been that guy before and it's a horrible feeling.
Here is my advice, fwiw::
On a 30BB stack we definitely dont need to be shoving here, I would click it up 2 or 2.5bb (so 20k or 25k) and if the BB shoves for what is effectively my entire stack I can fold the AQ and move on only losing 2bb's. If you choose to call off the BB well that is up to you and the end result will be your own doing because you had a chance to fold for 2bb's.
The only time I advocate open shoving on your stack size is when you are on the button and it folds to you, and the SB and BB are both less than 12BB or so - then we jam, apply max fold equity and if we get called, we are usually in ok shape if not ahead of their hands.
This deep in an MTT when ICM starts playing a factor and with FT payouts around the corner plus me having 30 bigs - I think I just make the open raise and the painful fold when I get jammed on by a big stack and live to get it all in at a better point. We can definitely ladder up the payouts with 30 bigs instead of risking busting here. Stack preservation is key here - if they had a shorter stack - 180k or less - it's a snap call with the AQ and when we lose we still have enough to play short stacked poker. Point is if we open raise then when they shove for about 95% of our stack and they take a 2bb bet and turn it into a 30BB bet...they give us the opportunity to exploit them. How? Easy, we fold and get away from them.
Say we do open to 20k - they 3bet to 85k - are we ever folding AQs here? I highly doubt it...so we see the flop, if they check, we should check back - and if they cbet - well the flop missed us bigtime so we have to fold. The point here is by them 3 betting the hand instead of ripping it all in they get extra value from us - and they do not risk their tournament life with 30bb's either.
Anyhow, I am saying chances are if we open raise instead of open shove - we probably dont go broke this hand unless we make the mistake of calling off a 30bb 3bet shove. MTTs are tough to run super deep in, even tougher to make the FT. When we are this close to that and the payouts that come with it - we don't want to put our entire stack at risk unless we absolutely have to.
I hope this makes sense, I hope it helps. Good luck to you and your games buddy!
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