$5.50 NLHE MTT: Folds nut flush on paired river

[Shufflin]

Brand new table, no info save for a chat comment about villain gambling... Avg stack 11k -- do you call here?


pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, 5.5 Tournament, 150/300 Blinds 40 Ante (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com


Hero (CO) (t19,202)
Button (t4,783)
SB (t8,882)
BB (t46,807)
UTG (t6,552)
UTG+1 (t9,622)
MP1 (t6,085)
MP2 (t5,170)


Hero's M: 24.94


Preflop: Hero is CO with A

, 2

4 folds, Hero raises to t633, 2 folds, BB calls t333


Flop: (t1,736) 9

, 8

, A

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks


Turn: (t1,736) 10

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t600, BB calls t600


River: (t2,936) 10

(2 players)
BB bets t45,534 (All-In), Hero folds


Total pot: t2,936


Results below:

Spoiler

BB didn't show

Tourney spoiler: I shoved his UTG raise a few orbits later -- out TT<AQ :hmpf:

 

[horizon12]

Decision was easy if we had about 20bb, it would be light call. But when 60bb
this is a very big stack to risk I am inclined to fold, villain can have range T8 T9 , with pair 88 99 i think he raise in preflop..As well he might weak flush , but this shove look very strong. So it is better fold and save this deep stack,,

Also depends on your bankroll ( if have 200 bi ), no problem, you can call , you will have the advantage in the tournament and increase the chances to reach the finals.

 

[hffjd2000]

I think he's not on full house. There are many hands we beat. He might accidentally be on flush likewise, or maybe straight or A with good kicker or maybe trip ten. I just believe we are way ahead here. Ill call.

 

[Shufflin]

I think he's not on full house. There are many hands we beat. He might accidentally be on flush likewise, or maybe straight or A with good kicker or maybe trip ten. I just believe we are way ahead here. Ill call.

I think I believed that all along -- and the subsequent TT 3bet shove was a little tilt-ish -- I think it was EV+, but no need to risk a flip at that point...

 

[rumsey182]

Ok this hand is insane where do i start? First off you should be cbetting wide so just cbet this board. Secondly turn bet was way too small bet closer to 1k. Finally only folding if i had a soul read and lets be honest do most people massively overshove the nuts on a river like this? snap him off

the way you played the hand this is still near the top of your range he isn't likely exploiting you

 

[rumsey182]

Also depends on your bankroll ( if have 200 bi ), no problem, you can call , you will have the advantage in the tournament and increase the chances to reach the finals.

from a pure decision stand point it doesn't actually matter here unless we are way underrolled

having more of a BR shouldn't change your decision in any way

 

[rumsey182]

I think I believed that all along -- and the subsequent TT 3bet shove was a little tilt-ish -- I think it was EV+, but no need to risk a flip at that point...

it is the river, we either win or we don't

unless his range is exactly 50% of bluffs and 50% the nuts this is in no way shape or form a flip

river equity is all or nothing

 

[Shufflin]

it is the river, we either win or we don't

unless his range is exactly 50% of bluffs and 50% the nuts this is in no way shape or form a flip

river equity is all or nothing

Sorry for the confusion -- the flip I was referring to was when I 3bet shoved TT later in the tourney... Thanks for your advice!

 

[Arjonius]

Ok this hand is insane where do i start? First off you should be cbetting wide so just cbet this board. Secondly turn bet was way too small bet closer to 1k. Finally only folding if i had a soul read and lets be honest do most people massively overshove the nuts on a river like this? snap him off

the way you played the hand this is still near the top of your range he isn't likely exploiting you

I'd be interested to see why OP decided it was better not to cbet the flop and also why ~1/3 pot was the best size on the turn. I also don't understand either of these plays.

As for what to do on the river, I wonder how OP arrived at the conclusion that he should fold.

 

[rumsey182]

I'd be interested to see why OP decided it was better not to cbet the flop and also why ~1/3 pot was the best size on the turn. I also don't understand either of these plays.

As for what to do on the river, I wonder how OP arrived at the conclusion that he should fold.

more so the way he played it, if we had cbet flop and bet turn river overshove becomes a lot easier to get away from

 

[Shufflin]

I guess my check on the flop was with the idea that it's a weak ace, and I don't mind seeing another card. Small turn bet is to try and let him make 2nd best hand, which, he probably did. I probably got exactly what I wanted in setting a trap, but chickened out at the end. Bah!

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

I didn't look at the spoiler...and I don't think I can ever fold the nut flush here the way the hand played out. Don't you think if he rivered a boat he would go for some value by making something between a half pot and full pot bet?

I'd be putting him on a ten, or a pure bluff or possibly a worse flush...and I'd call here all day long. Actually, a bluff seems the most likely....he is using his stack against you figuring he's making a bet you can't call without the nuts. I think if he has a T or a small flush he check calls your bet, or bets half he pot.

I guess checking the flop isn't the worst play in the world...giving yourself a free card to improve....but you most likely don't even need to improve and I'd make my standard Cbet on the flop.

On the turn, I'd bet somewhere between 40-60% of the pot....we don't want to "protect" our hand so much as we want to gain value; so I don't think your 1/3 pot turn bet is terrible...you want to bet the max you think he'll call on the turn without scaring him off...so if you put him on a weak hand, I guess betting 1/3 pot is OK. if I had the Q or K high flush, for example, I might bet a little more to protect against him having the Ad and another diamond peeling off...

 

[aznman08]

I guess my check on the flop was with the idea that it's a weak ace, and I don't mind seeing another card. Small turn bet is to try and let him make 2nd best hand, which, he probably did. I probably got exactly what I wanted in setting a trap, but chickened out at the end. Bah!

Even in tournaments, you can't chicken out with a specific plan you had for this type of hand. You got what you wanted and you have to follow through with it, despite how poorly this hand ended up played out. Sounds like you had a mindset issue with his all-in overbet.

 

[Arjonius]

I guess my check on the flop was with the idea that it's a weak ace, and I don't mind seeing another card.

If he has a weak or middle A, he might bet the flop since you have plenty in your range that he out-flopped. Yeah, he might check the same hand, but the presence of both possibilities decreases the probability of either one individually. Similarly if he might have folded a weak A pre-, it's less likely he has one after the flop. There are only two he could have anyway.

So after he checks, I'm inclined to bet.

Small turn bet is to try and let him make 2nd best hand, which, he probably did. I probably got exactly what I wanted in setting a trap, but chickened out at the end. Bah!

This kind of thinking falls under the FPS umbrella. It works out sometimes, but is counter-productive overall. How much of his range will call 1/3 pot but fold for somewhat more? Not much. So why size your bet on the basis that he his hand is one of them?

And I think that you kind of painted yourself into a corner where you have to call his shove, in large part because you picked bet sizes that didn't narrow his range very much.

 

[Shufflin]

Insightful analysis, Arjonius -- thanks! If it's not obvious already, my range awareness and narrowing needs work.

 

[Poker Orifice]

easy call. You've under-repped your hand here like crazy!


Why aren't you c-betting the flop here?

 

[kanselau]

I guess my check on the flop was with the idea that it's a weak ace, and I don't mind seeing another card. Small turn bet is to try and let him make 2nd best hand, which, he probably did. I probably got exactly what I wanted in setting a trap, but chickened out at the end. Bah!

Build the pot before the flush comes , a 3rd flush card usually kills the action and you don't get paid.
Standard cbet flop - even if villain hasn't got an A he will call with worse by probably putting you on flush draw
bet turn bigger - if he has and ace hes probably calling , if he doesn't hes prob folding any bet , if hes got a smaller flush we are building a pot where we can stack him on the river without a hudge overbet.
get it in on the river - if villain has a full house and puts us on a flush then he wants to get paid , not blow us off the hand.

Your line actually looks quite week so I think this is a bluff , or weaker flush.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

Your line actually looks quite week so I think this is a bluff , or weaker flush.

I also think a bluff is most likely.

Because of the weak line, he's not expecting you to call, figuring you'll be afraid of the flush and the paired board. People usually only overshove with nut hands when they put their opponent on a very strong hand that can call....so they try to make their own "stronger" hand appear like a bluff. (or total donkeys who don't have a clue)

There's no way he's putting you on a strong hand here, so he's bullying plain and simple. he might not even have an ace, he might have a busted straight draw or a medium pair.

 

[hffjd2000]

I think I believed that all along -- and the subsequent TT 3bet shove was a little tilt-ish -- I think it was EV+, but no need to risk a flip at that point...

This is the best time to double up. Take it or leave it. He was simply bluffing.

 

[shinedown.45]

Brand new table, no info save for a chat comment about villain gambling... Avg stack 11k -- do you call here?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 5.5 Tournament, 150/300 Blinds 40 Ante (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com


Hero (CO) (t19,202)
Button (t4,783)
SB (t8,882)
BB (t46,807)
UTG (t6,552)
UTG+1 (t9,622)
MP1 (t6,085)
MP2 (t5,170)


Hero's M: 24.94


Preflop: Hero is CO with A

, 2

4 folds, Hero raises to t633(900), 2 folds, BB calls t333


Flop: (t1,736) 9

, 8

, A

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks


Turn: (t1,736) 10

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t600(900 maybe 1200), BB calls t600


River: (t2,936) 10

(2 players)
BB bets t45,534 (All-In), Hero folds(insta-call)


Total pot: t2,936


Results below:

Spoiler

BB didn't show

Tourney spoiler: I shoved his UTG raise a few orbits later -- out TT<AQ :hmpf:

look to red.
I just have to shake my head at this fold, as it had been said above, his shove was done just to scare you away and it worked because nobody in his right mind would throw value out the window.

 

[Scrover]

Just call here. The story I can only see here possible is a set and because he didn't check the turn back (microstakes people go with the automatic slowroll when they flop a set etc), it leads me to thinking he senses weakness and shoved because he didn't want you to call.