$5.50 NLHE MTT: Final table 4-handed decision

Ahoy

Ahoy

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Hey all!

One more interesting hand from the FT.

BB is a winning regular, UTG is a fish, SB feels fishy but he is not terrible.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $25000(BB)
BB ($1324393) [VPIP: 28.3% | PFR: 20.2% | AGG: 27.7% | 3-Bet: 11.5% | Hands: 99] ~ 53 BB
CO ($147218) [VPIP: 25.7% | PFR: 6.9% | AGG: 21.9% | 3-Bet: 3.2% | hands: 175] ~ 6 BB
HERO ($1079746) [VPIP: 22.8% | PFR: 17.1% | AGG: 24.5% | 3-Bet: 7.9% | Hands: 1964] ~ 43 BB
SB ($213643) [VPIP: 14.3% | PFR: 6.3% | AGG: 31.3% | 3-Bet: 5.6% | Hands: 255] ~ 8 BB

Dealt to Hero: A Q

CO Folds, HERO Raises To $52500, SB Folds, BB Calls $25000

Hero SPR on Flop: [8.39 effective]
Flop ($122500): Q J J
BB Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($122500): Q J J K
BB Bets $50000 (Rem. Stack: 1221893), HERO Calls $50000 (Rem. Stack: 977246)

River ($222500): Q J J K 8
BB Bets $75000 (Rem. Stack: 1146893), HERO Calls $75000 (Rem. Stack: 902246)

BB shows: T A

BB wins: $372500

Pre flop is std I think, flop decision - do we want to bet? I didnt bet because I didnt see many worse hands calling on this super dry board. I think underpairs fold and I dont see many Qx combinations that we beat in his range. I opted to check.

Turn, I have seen this guy stab the turn with a high frequency (something that you would expect of a winning reg) and I called, however I dont see many value hands that we beat so this bet kinda polarises his range I think.

River, he bets again really small and I called because of the sizing, but I knew that I dont beat any value combos at this point and only beat bluffs. What do you think about this?

When I reviewed the final table yesterday I felt like I could have folded the river. Your opinions?

PS: Very important, huge ICM considerations, there are 2 shortstacked weak players and we have a lot of chips with the other guy and I didnt want to commit ICM suicide there (like I used to do in the past lol) so I was on the "calmer" side.
 
Andrew Popov

Andrew Popov

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I think you should have bet on the flop. Double board, but you have a ready hand - there is no point in waiting and allowing the villain to increase. For you, there are practically no cards that will make your hand better (unless another Queen). On the flop, you had to decide for yourself whether you took the call and bet, or you were ready to give this hand, but then the subsequent calls were not good, you were already behind the villain. On the flop, you had some fold equity, because the villain had only a draw, and he could throw it at a good bet - in the amount of the pot, for example.
 
SuzdalDEcor

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Next time dont checkback with this hand xD. You must valuebetting QX with lower kicker and some dro.
 
R

RocwX

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I would bet the flop. You have a decent hand at that point and it becomes sorta hard to figure your opponent's strength by not betting. On the turn a lot of hands in the villain's range improved and you're in a very awkward position to bet. If I bet that flop and the other player doesn't fold, I'm checking/folding all the way after that turn.
 
Matt Vaughan

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The only real reason to be betting here is to get value, and tbh I have no problem checking this back sometimes. We will have plenty of Jx to bet here (which also unblocks Qx that we want him to have and call with) so checking back AQ at least SOME of the time is fine, though I wouldn't do it every time.

As played on flop we have an absolutely mandatory call down on turn and river, as anti-fun a spot as this may be. Some straights get there, a J can still bet, but I think our hand is too under-repped to fold when getting such a good price.
 
Ahoy

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The only real reason to be betting here is to get value, and tbh I have no problem checking this back sometimes. We will have plenty of Jx to bet here (which also unblocks Qx that we want him to have and call with) so checking back AQ at least SOME of the time is fine, though I wouldn't do it every time.

As played on flop we have an absolutely mandatory call down on turn and river, as anti-fun a spot as this may be. Some straights get there, a J can still bet, but I think our hand is too under-repped to fold when getting such a good price.



Do you plan on playing some MTTs on BOL during your stream? :)
 
Jacki Burkhart

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Flop: I am normally betting this flop, but that's because I generally bet very wide and very small and this hand fits beautifully into that strategy for me. I will Cbet about 30% pot and can still get called by hands like AT, T9, KT underpairs, Qx. Yes we block Qx but that doesn't mean there is NONE.

if you have always been choosing a larger Cbet size then perhaps this is not the time to experiment with small sizing and then I do think a check back makes sense.

Turn: The K is the worst card in the deck for us....BUT we can't fold. our hand is too strong. also you say you wouldn't expect a winning reg to probe turn (like its a bad move). probing turn is a very profitable move. I do it all the time. obviously it depends on the board and the villain but I probe a ton and I'm not stopping anytime soon! :)

River: yeah it sucks. it feels like we are gonna lose a lot. but the price is fantastic and we still have one of the stronger hands in our range. sigh call. then say nice hand.
 
Ahoy

Ahoy

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Flop: I am normally betting this flop, but that's because I generally bet very wide and very small and this hand fits beautifully into that strategy for me. I will Cbet about 30% pot and can still get called by hands like AT, T9, KT underpairs, Qx. Yes we block Qx but that doesn't mean there is NONE.

if you have always been choosing a larger Cbet size then perhaps this is not the time to experiment with small sizing and then I do think a check back makes sense.

Turn: The K is the worst card in the deck for us....BUT we can't fold. our hand is too strong. also you say you wouldn't expect a winning reg to probe turn (like its a bad move). probing turn is a very profitable move. I do it all the time. obviously it depends on the board and the villain but I probe a ton and I'm not stopping anytime soon! :)

River: yeah it sucks. it feels like we are gonna lose a lot. but the price is fantastic and we still have one of the stronger hands in our range. sigh call. then say nice hand.

Thanks for the reply, but I said that I WOULD expect him to probe turn a lot and I do that as well, everybody does that because it works :D
 
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blackchip

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I would have bet that flop, but I can get super aggressive at a final table when my VP was low the entire tourney. Tough one though, he still could have called, some players just like those ace high draws.
 
Jacki Burkhart

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Thanks for the reply, but I said that I WOULD expect him to probe turn a lot and I do that as well, everybody does that because it works :D

Oh duh! That makes a lot more sense! :)
 
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kkonicke

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I think I'm playing this the same as you against the chip leader with 2 short stacks at the table, except I think I'm folding river. Pot control is so important in this spot. You definitely don't want to be betting 3 streets for value, you'd want to bet 2 at most pending the runout. I feel like BB has more Jx in his range than you do on a button raise 4 handed. Betting the flop only bloats the pot, and so much of BB's range is going to continue. And if the turn or river is a K, 10, 9, or runs off 3 of a suit...BB can put you in a really tough river spot with a big bet. Whether it's with a hand or a bluff.

On the river, I know it's a small bet but what exactly are you beating? A lot of Ax bluffs, Q 10 and Q 9, some other weird bluffs. BB has a ton of Kx and Jx in his range along with A 10 and 10 9. Before I clicked the spoiled, I was expecting BB to have K 10 or 10 9. The river bet looked like a thin value bet specifically targetting Q x or a bluff catching medium pocket pair.
 
Q

quant1986

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Actually I agree folding to this thin river bet size as your flop checking/turn calling ranges is still uncapped (KK-JJ) and there are many good bluff catcher AA,TT,99,AQ,KQ , even AT in your range

Winning reg should know that and likely give up many busted draws on the river and use overbet to polarise his nutted range/bluff like KJ/QJ vs 99/TT that he may chose to 3bet preflop.
 
Vilgeoforc

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You need to bet the flop and bet tightly. 2\3 of the Bank is the most suitable rate. River, I wouldn't call
 
T

tmfnsanders

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I think it looks perfect as played. Ok with a flop cbet as well but I like the checkback and pot control because of ICM considerations.

As played on the flop take the cheap showdown, curse your luck, and get him next time.
 
B

blackburn44

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hi :)

i love your pot control on such a coordinated board like that and your bb defender opponent has a really wide range. I think flop and turn was good calls. But your opponent probably understand u had a weak hand because of your pot control and made a 1/3 bet on river. I think you should consider to fold if u had short stack. But you played really well.
 
Jdjakubisin

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I have to bet post flop after a check. You need raises to get information. A check can be telling as well, but once you see the two jacks I have to get a feel if he is slow-playing them or if my queen is good. You can't say that slow-playing your 2 pair is a good slow-play for yourself because you have no idea if those jacks are helping him.

Calling those raises after the turn and river are standard procedure after the checks on the flop. Not a bad play by either player as it's revealed he had a straight.
 
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