$5.50 NLHE MTT: Bet size optimization for value

[6bet]

How's it going guys, the following is a pretty standard hand I played recently in a SCOOP event.

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/824Av40Er

Think my line was standard on the flop, hoping to XR a lot if the IP player called and definitely if the SB overcalls. Being that it is a multiway pot I think a small c-bet would have been fine as well.

Turn is not a card I wanted to see but decided it is time to start betting. Interesting note: ran this through the solver and in a HU situation (me vs just IP caller) the solver only uses a smaller bet size here with top set, though it will only use the larger sizing (that I used in the actual hand) with sets of 99 or 88. AA bets small sometimes and keeps checking a lot, and KK now always checks. Wondering if anyone with more solver experience can explain why that is. And if the fact that this is a multiway spot with another caller out of the SB changes things drastically. My solver only goes HU.

Cheers

 

[ssbn743]

How's it going guys, the following is a pretty standard hand I played recently in a SCOOP event.

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/824Av40Er

Think my line was standard on the flop, hoping to XR a lot if the IP player called and definitely if the SB overcalls. Being that it is a multiway pot I think a small c-bet would have been fine as well.

Turn is not a card I wanted to see but decided it is time to start betting. Interesting note: ran this through the solver and in a HU situation (me vs just IP caller) the solver only uses a smaller bet size here with top set, though it will only use the larger sizing (that I used in the actual hand) with sets of 99 or 88. AA bets small sometimes and keeps checking a lot, and KK now always checks. Wondering if anyone with more solver experience can explain why that is. And if the fact that this is a multiway spot with another caller out of the SB changes things drastically. My solver only goes HU.

Cheers

So, with over 30-40BB pre-flop, I think I prefer a 2.5x open. Your size is fine, it just doesn't generate as much value and it prices the BB in (though I am aware he's prob calling anyway).

The flop is a little dicey for me. The XR is a fine idea, if it works, if it doesn't like here, we end up shooting ourselves in the foot, giving two players a free card, and then throwing a bet out and praying we don't get raised.

I am not completely up to speed with solver land, but agree this hand is basically impossible to solve (currently), and HU I don't get the KK check either. As played, I think you have to start betting, so no problem there, and I agree with the solver that a smaller size is warranted here, strictly due to the polarization of the board.

For the same reason, and since we have a clear nut advantage, I would also not be against an overbet on the flop - doubt the solver would agree with that though.

I would just say that we need the XR to work here or we need to be considering other options. Our primary target checking back is a disaster.

 

[6bet]

So, with over 30-40BB pre-flop, I think I prefer a 2.5x open. Your size is fine, it just doesn't generate as much value and it prices the BB in (though I am aware he's prob calling anyway).

The flop is a little dicey for me. The XR is a fine idea, if it works, if it doesn't like here, we end up shooting ourselves in the foot, giving two players a free card, and then throwing a bet out and praying we don't get raised.

I am not completely up to speed with solver land, but agree this hand is basically impossible to solve (currently), and HU I don't get the KK check either. As played, I think you have to start betting, so no problem there, and I agree with the solver that a smaller size is warranted here, strictly due to the polarization of the board.

For the same reason, and since we have a clear nut advantage, I would also not be against an overbet on the flop - doubt the solver would agree with that though.

I would just say that we need the XR to work here or we need to be considering other options. Our primary target checking back is a disaster.

Thank you for your input! Interesting, I rarely if ever overbet the flop, especially multiway. What kind of flops and hand types do you typically like to mix that in with?

 

[300HPGOD]

How's it going guys, the following is a pretty standard hand I played recently in a SCOOP event.

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/824Av40Er

Think my line was standard on the flop, hoping to XR a lot if the IP player called and definitely if the SB overcalls. Being that it is a multiway pot I think a small c-bet would have been fine as well.

Turn is not a card I wanted to see but decided it is time to start betting. Interesting note: ran this through the solver and in a HU situation (me vs just IP caller) the solver only uses a smaller bet size here with top set, though it will only use the larger sizing (that I used in the actual hand) with sets of 99 or 88. AA bets small sometimes and keeps checking a lot, and KK now always checks. Wondering if anyone with more solver experience can explain why that is. And if the fact that this is a multiway spot with another caller out of the SB changes things drastically. My solver only goes HU.

Cheers

Sorry I am a little late on this thread. I am not a solver whiz so sorry that I can't help there but would like to add my 2 cents on this hand. I like the pre flop sizing since obviously we really can't wrong with any sizing between 2 and 2.5BB in these cases and at these blind levels. I think if you go bigger you might set off some alarms with better players or at least raise suspicion.

On the flop I do not like the check. I understand the desire to check raise but we have a few things going our way to make this a C bet. First, the board is wet which most of the time is a burden but here it helps us. It means more hands connected with this board and more hands will call the C bet. Added value for you that you should not pass up. Secondly, with 3 known aces out of the 4 accounted for what would IP villians betting range be in a 3 way pot? He most likely has no ace and if he has 8x or 9x he will probably check behind thinking he will not be able to take the pot down right there. That leaves only the drawing hands that would bet. However, if IP villain has a drawing hand wouldnt he be at least calling our C bet and possibly even raising it? (of course we would love that since we could re raise). With checking the flop we are allowing IP villain to play perfectly and not have to make a tough decision any hand he has. If he has a draw or a smaller pair he can take the free card. If the board was A72 I would be on team check but there are too many hands here that connect with the board for us to extract value and at least make either villain pay to materialize their equity. Plus we have the added benefit of not having to be worried about being raised or check raised as we would encourage that.

As played on the turn you are correct that you need to bet even with the scare card coming out but I generally would go with a smaller bet. If they hit they hit it so betting big will not solve anything and maybe its possible a smaller bet gets one crying call from a 8x or 9x. I think a smaller bet would also play better in case you do get raised as it might make it closer for you to have equity to call. You would have 10 outs for a re draw boat and depending on the raise size it might be a small enough portion of the pot to mathematically make the call even if you knew they had the flush (thinking a bet of 1500 raised to 4000, small raise yes but possible which would make your call 2500 into a pot of roughly 10k. Close to mathematically correct to call).

 

[Jon Poker]

Multi way like this i am betting top set here all day - the board is just wet enough we can get floated by quite a few combos that can possibly pickup equity on the turn - I would bet roughly 40-45% pot here as a small bet. I think checking is the 2nd best option - just going to be a lot of turn cards we are not going to love even with a hand so strong. Don't sit there and HOPE the IP player is going to bet this flop for you so you can x/raise...what are they going to be betting this A hi board with when you are covering 3/4 Aces from the deck??? We block all of their value hands on this flop except for 88 and 99! I think that even KK checks this flop behind us ALOT. Point is - its hard for them to have the case A, 88 or 99 and underpairs like TT and JJ are probably not going to lead this flop into 2 opponents even IP.

That brings my to my next point - reason the solver probably likes the small bet on the turn is because after it checks through its pretty unlikely any villans have any Ax combos - especially because we block the ever living crop out of those - and flush draw combos generally tend to bet at some point - no need to bet huge on the turn and find it super awkward if a villan raises us - bet smaller because we block a large portion of our villans value range and so we can possibly withstand the raise on this turn.

Conclusion - bet for value! Charge draws and underpairs and just sticky random floats to come along. No need to use huge sizings - but sitting waiting for our villans to catch a piece isn't making us any $$ either. If the board came down rainbow - im all for the check and then small bet on the turn - on this board we should bet for value the whole way.

 

[ssbn743]

Thank you for your input! Interesting, I rarely if ever overbet the flop, especially multiway. What kind of flops and hand types do you typically like to mix that in with?

So, it's not so much a question of what types of boards, as to when villains range is capped.

As a general rule, over bets work very well when you have a nut advantage (i.e. you can have the nuts and villain cannot). However, we also would like to be facing a capped range - so, villain donk-betting into us, for example.

Now, in this case, both villain's ranges are fairly capped as pre-flop callers; and they should never have the nuts here. They may have the nut draw, but that's exactly what we mean by capped.

So, I would entertain an over bet here - however, as a default I think 1/3 to 1/2 pot is probably best. I just thought I'd mention the over bet just to make sure we're thinking about it.