$5.50 NLHE MTT: 55 CO, BB 3bet allin. Call or fold?

[RiverLord90]

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem $1000(BB)
BB ($30784) [VPIP: 17.9% | PFR: 13.8% | AGG: 22.9% | 3-Bet: 13.6% | Hands: 147]
UTG ($33528) [VPIP: 30.6% | PFR: 21.8% | AGG: 21% | 3-Bet: 4.3% | hands: 222]
HJ ($33394) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 28.6% | AGG: 42.9% | 3-Bet: 28.6% | Hands: 21]
HERO ($23577) [VPIP: 22.3% | PFR: 15.8% | AGG: 33.2% | 3-Bet: 6.4% | Hands: 40598]
BTN ($18218) [VPIP: 18.5% | PFR: 12.1% | AGG: 12.1% | 3-Bet: 7.2% | Hands: 267]
SB ($27192) [VPIP: 43.7% | PFR: 10.1% | AGG: 48.2% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 124]

Dealt to Hero: 5♦ 5♥

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $2641, BTN Folds, SB Calls $2041, BB Raises To $30784 (allin),

Spoiler

HERO Folds, SB Folds


BB wins: $8223

 

[Collin Moshman]

Interesting spot! It's definitely not a fist-pump but I would call here. The reason is that you're getting decent odds and will usually be a slight favorite against two overs. Also the big blind's range is probably capped -- if he held a high pocket pair he would sometimes 3-bet smaller to try to get more action.

Btw I like the small raise pre-flop. You could even go a bit smaller and just min-raise. If we were at $20k or less effective stack here though, open-shoving would become the best play.

 

[DasWheat]

ez lay down; flipping at best

 

[EvertonGirl]

ez lay down; flipping at best

To win tournaments you got to take the flips

 

[Brawo]

Pot at the beginning is 2100 (I assume ante is 100). Your stack is 23577, 24BB M=11 I think bet around 2,6bb is too high, I prefer 2,1/2,2, because effect will be the same and you are saveing the chips. You are cut off, If you often steal blinds here, big blind coould though that your range is really wide, why big blind didn't pay that small prize to see flop? play float and then did bet on the turn or river for value? It is very suspicious for me. You have packet fives, and this hand is tough, because its will be rare over pair on the flop, set will come too rare, you can be often domination and you are here 12:88 behind, but if he has AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, QJ, you have around 55% to win this pot.

If I were you I would fold this hand, because even BB is blefing with hand like A6o, it is flip. If you have a good read for him call, If not, fold.

 

[RiverLord90]

Interesting spot! It's definitely not a fist-pump but I would call here. The reason is that you're getting decent odds and will usually be a slight favorite against two overs. Also the big blind's range is probably capped -- if he held a high pocket pair he would sometimes 3-bet smaller to try to get more action.

Btw I like the small raise pre-flop. You could even go a bit smaller and just min-raise. If we were at $20k or less effective stack here though, open-shoving would become the best play.

Thanks for the in-depth analysis! I wanted to make the call but decided not to at the last second. I usually bet around 2.5bb in tourneys so I didn't want to change that then to give my opponents any info on what I might be holding. But I agree, down the stretch, it's probably better to min-raise instead to preserve chips!

 

[RiverLord90]

Pot at the beginning is 2100 (I assume ante is 100). Your stack is 23577, 24BB M=11 I think bet around 2,6bb is too high, I prefer 2,1/2,2, because effect will be the same and you are saveing the chips. You are cut off, If you often steal blinds here, big blind coould though that your range is really wide, why big blind didn't pay that small prize to see flop? play float and then did bet on the turn or river for value? It is very suspicious for me. You have packet fives, and this hand is tough, because its will be rare over pair on the flop, set will come too rare, you can be often domination and you are here 12:88 behind, but if he has AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, QJ, you have around 55% to win this pot.

If I were you I would fold this hand, because even BB is blefing with hand like A6o, it is flip. If you have a good read for him call, If not, fold.

I agree I should have bet a little smaller in this spot. But wouldn't I want to take that 55% coin flip though? I thought that would be the optimal play against two overcards.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

my first instinct was to fold but this is actually a closer spot upon inspection of villains stats.

SB appears to be a station and will most likely be folding....so DEAD MONEY is a real plus in the calling column. your pot odds are roughly 1.3:1 so you need roughly 43% equity to make a break even call.

BB appears to be tight in his VPIP and PFR but then WHOA! look at that 3b% 13.5% is pretty high and while 147 hands isn't a ton vs these types of players we can gain a sense pretty quickly that he is over 3betting.....I would expand the HUD to see his 3b% broken down by position. usually, players don't 3b enough out of the BB and over3b out of the SB and button. if this is the case it's a fold. if he has been 3b out of the BB 12% or more....then with that (likely) dead money from the SB I would probably take the spot. (these would be my in game actions and thought process)

BTW, we are not guaranteed to be flipping. a lot of people are saying "take the flip" but sometimes we are just crushed.

for reference I tend to run a 8.8% overall 3b and it is highest from SB and BTN and it is about 8% from the BB. However my squeeze stats are lower (possible leak?) at 7% for me that range looks like 77+, AJo+, ATs+, KQs, JTs and facing a range like mine you only have about 35% equity. Even given the dead money you are not getting the right price vs MY range...

however if this villain 3b% is 1.5x of mine then it is safe to assume his squeeze is also probably 1.5x of mine (thereabouts) so if he is squeezing about 10.5% of hands THAT range should look something like 66+, AJo+ A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs+, T9s (10.41%) and your equity vs that range is roughly 39%. (still not quite enough but getting closer)

what does his range need to look like before we are making a break even call? funny you should ask...I just ran the numbers... if he is jamming 55+, A2s-A5s and ATo+ and all suited broadways and KJo+ now we have 43.4% equity....however that means he is jamming 14% of all hands....even this villain probably isn't this crazy. I think its a closer spot than I originally thought...but upon further reflection I think it's still a fold.

if we assume he is squeezing the full 13% (which he might not be) then the worst pocket pair we can call with to be break even is 66.

all that to say this spot is very close and very villain dependent, but I still lean towards a fold.

also, most of the time when we are being put to the test for OUR tourney life without the aggressive action (no fold equity) I'd like to have better than breakeven equity. I'd like to have a 5% cushion so I'd probably call with 77+ and AJ+

 

[yoejslattery]

Tough spot indeed. I would fold. His range has too many overpairs. I think he does this with 77-JJ and maybe even QQ -AA since its multiway and those all have you dominated. And otherwaise the 55% equity of two overs vs your hand does not make up for the times you are dominated. His VPIP does not indicate that he gets out of line either so I think the pairs are a real possibility.

 

[TheDude6622]

Definitely an easy fold. There are so many hands that beat you in that spot. The BB is not the super aggressive person at the table, leaving you to believe that the BB is ahead of you preflop and you made the correct fold.