$5.50 NLHE MTT: $$5.50 NLHE MTT: ITM 77 Facing Shove 4 Players Behind

NHequalsFU

NHequalsFU

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Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 600/1,200 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 6.08 BB
UTG+1: 15.64 BB
MP: 24.34 BB
MP+1: 9.48 BB (VPIP: 13.64, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 22)
Hero (MP+2): 24.66 BB
CO: 31.04 BB
BTN: 6.78 BB (VPIP: 16.95, PFR: 3.74, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 118)
SB: 9.74 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
BB: 10.93 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 7 7

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 9.35 BB and is all-in ????

Fold or Shove here? No hands on CO who covers us and 3 shortstacks.
 
Jon Poker

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Fold. His range is super tight and he stole your move. Wait for a better spot
 
Flight777sem

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Sometimes I’d call it, depends on the table dynamic and opponent but mostly it is a fold. You could wait for better hand
 
NHequalsFU

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Sometimes I’d call it, depends on the table dynamic and opponent but mostly it is a fold. You could wait for better hand


I would think calling would be worst choice since the guy behind us could re-shove and it would make us sick.

If I was last to act and it was just me vs. villain I would snap call.
 
Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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I'm not super happy about it, but I'm gonna reshove here. Villain's stats are tight but we only have 22 hands on him. If I had 1,000 hands and those were his stats I would fold.
 
NHequalsFU

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I'm not super happy about it, but I'm gonna reshove here. Villain's stats are tight but we only have 22 hands on him. If I had 1,000 hands and those were his stats I would fold.


I was more worried about CO behind us who had us covered and 3 more players left to act. If it was just me and the original shove I would call here all day long for 10bbs at this point of a tourney.
 
Jon Poker

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Again - sticking to my guns. Wait for a better spot. 77 you gotta dodge 7 overs with an opponent who is likely shoving two overs...at best you are only winning this 60% of the time and thats if no one else decides to come along.

I agree if you were in the BB and everyone folds to you, well than its an easier decision and i could warrant pondering a call - for me, this hand is a fold. Folding a weaker pair and looking to get it in better in a later spot is still "playing to win" in my book :)
 
greatgame230

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I fold I do not have the right spot to play that hand because I do not know what the CO is going to do so I do not take risks and I fold
 
John Turnner

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versus MP1:
pot odds: 2.62+9.35*2=21.32
9.35/21.32*100=43.85%
If MP1 shove 9%, then your call is unprofitable. (41,446%)
If MP1 shove 13% then your call is finely profitable (45,289%)

BUT!
villian CO will shove 9% and less, then your call is bad.

even without statistics, by eye, this is an easy fold.
 

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NHequalsFU

NHequalsFU

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I did end up folding but it's one of those spots where I want to be sure I'm making the correct decision.

CO ended up shoving also here and both had broadway hands.

I don't remember what the runout was off the top of my head but I'm trying to not worry abou the cards and just focus on the decisions.
 
Jacki Burkhart

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Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 600/1,200 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 6.08 BB
UTG+1: 15.64 BB
MP: 24.34 BB
MP+1: 9.48 BB (VPIP: 13.64, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22)
Hero (MP+2): 24.66 BB
CO: 31.04 BB
BTN: 6.78 BB (VPIP: 16.95, PFR: 3.74, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 118)
SB: 9.74 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
BB: 10.93 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 7 7

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 9.35 BB and is all-in ????

Fold or Shove here? No hands on CO who covers us and 3 shortstacks.

you are approaching this problem correctly, but I strongly disagree with your ranges. Why did you put in those hands? I understand villain's stats are 9% PFR but we only have 22 hands on him....we can't make huge deviations from standard plays based on so few hands.

according to snapshove we can shove 25.2% of hands in this spot with 9.5bb.

that range looks like: 22+, A2s+, A7o+,QTo+, KTo+, K7s+, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s,78s

vs that range 77 has 52.7% equity. plenty more than the 43% needed for this to be a breakeven call.

now....if we assume our villain is shoving a little bit tighter than snapshove suggests and he is only shoving the top 2/3 of the range they are supposed to (meaning they are a lot tighter than they SHOULD be). then even vs. the strongest part of his range (16.4% of hands) we still have 47.8% equity....again still above the equity needed to break even.


I understand that the CO covers us and is behind us, that's why we iso shove and don't just flat. in that situation the CO should only wake up with a hand he can overcall with about 3-4% of the time. that won't happen very often and when it does you are out or more than double up.

this is not a slam dunk easy call spot, but it's a profitable iso shove. Again, if I have a lot more hands on villain to prove to me that he is very tight then the math changes towards a fold.
 
EvertonGirl

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you are approaching this problem correctly, but I strongly disagree with your ranges. Why did you put in those hands? I understand villain's stats are 9% PFR but we only have 22 hands on him....we can't make huge deviations from standard plays based on so few hands.

according to snapshove we can shove 25.2% of hands in this spot with 9.5bb.

that range looks like: 22+, A2s+, A7o+,QTo+, KTo+, K7s+, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s,78s

vs that range 77 has 52.7% equity. plenty more than the 43% needed for this to be a breakeven call.

now....if we assume our villain is shoving a little bit tighter than snapshove suggests and he is only shoving the top 2/3 of the range they are supposed to (meaning they are a lot tighter than they SHOULD be). then even vs. the strongest part of his range (16.4% of hands) we still have 47.8% equity....again still above the equity needed to break even.


I understand that the CO covers us and is behind us, that's why we iso shove and don't just flat. in that situation the CO should only wake up with a hand he can overcall with about 3-4% of the time. that won't happen very often and when it does you are out or more than double up.

this is not a slam dunk easy call spot, but it's a profitable iso shove. Again, if I have a lot more hands on villain to prove to me that he is very tight then the math changes towards a fold.

+1... Solid advice from Jacki here!
 
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