Jon Poker
Legend
Your 3bet sizing pre is too small - everyone here is pretty deep (80ish bb effective) and your 3bet sizing should be somewhere between 3x-3.3x in position like this putting you around 11,500 on the bigger side of sizing -- so you are losing value when you do not size properly - get called, cbet and take it down - which is going to happen quite often.
Anyhow, post flop I loved your sizing choice of about 30% pot on the flop. You have all the top pr combos locked up and for villan to have the last K in the deck is pretty unlikely so its hard for villan to continue when we bet large - so again, I love this sizing.
Then all of a sudden the hand goes off rails...I don't understand why we jam all in for 1.5x pot here when we have all the Kx in this hand locked up...what do we expect to get value from when we do this? Just a move that makes no sense in this hand and is over the top foolish. Are you scared of villan having a flush draw? Why push out the draw? It's an unmade hand that will still likely pay you for a decently sized bet, but we push out villans draws when we bet this large. Just makes no sense, don't fear the reaper in spots like this, you are losing tons of value by doing such a thing. If you were to check turn - make your flop cbet look like a failed attempt - then we get to call river bets from our villan and when checked to, then we can overbet jam 1.5x pot to make our hand look like a bluff - missed spades, missed straight draw, etc.
If you dont care about playing well and making max value then shoving turn here will protect your top set against whatever draw you are scared of...but if you want to extract the most from your villan here and also keep worse hands in the pot - a bet of 50-60% pot will do just that and still allow you to shove all safe River cards - and for me that's anything that is NOT a spade or an A.
Hope this is helpful.
Anyhow, post flop I loved your sizing choice of about 30% pot on the flop. You have all the top pr combos locked up and for villan to have the last K in the deck is pretty unlikely so its hard for villan to continue when we bet large - so again, I love this sizing.
Then all of a sudden the hand goes off rails...I don't understand why we jam all in for 1.5x pot here when we have all the Kx in this hand locked up...what do we expect to get value from when we do this? Just a move that makes no sense in this hand and is over the top foolish. Are you scared of villan having a flush draw? Why push out the draw? It's an unmade hand that will still likely pay you for a decently sized bet, but we push out villans draws when we bet this large. Just makes no sense, don't fear the reaper in spots like this, you are losing tons of value by doing such a thing. If you were to check turn - make your flop cbet look like a failed attempt - then we get to call river bets from our villan and when checked to, then we can overbet jam 1.5x pot to make our hand look like a bluff - missed spades, missed straight draw, etc.
If you dont care about playing well and making max value then shoving turn here will protect your top set against whatever draw you are scared of...but if you want to extract the most from your villan here and also keep worse hands in the pot - a bet of 50-60% pot will do just that and still allow you to shove all safe River cards - and for me that's anything that is NOT a spade or an A.
Hope this is helpful.
F
fundiver199
Legend
Loyaler
I agree with everything, Jon Poker wrote:
Preflop
Make the 3-bet larger
Flop
Perfect sizing, allow him to continue with hands like AQ, QQ, QJs, JTs, TT etc.
Turn
Size up now but dont overbet jam. Stacks are to deep to make this a 2-street hand. Also you have position, so no need of beeing scared to play the river. If the river card is one of the worst in the deck like 9s, and he donk jam it in your face, its fine to fold. And if he check to you, you can check back.
Preflop
Make the 3-bet larger
Flop
Perfect sizing, allow him to continue with hands like AQ, QQ, QJs, JTs, TT etc.
Turn
Size up now but dont overbet jam. Stacks are to deep to make this a 2-street hand. Also you have position, so no need of beeing scared to play the river. If the river card is one of the worst in the deck like 9s, and he donk jam it in your face, its fine to fold. And if he check to you, you can check back.
3
300HPGOD
Legend
When villain raises over a limper here their hand imo is usually stronger than if they would have just opened themselves. I treat is as almost a quasi 3 bet even though it really isnt but the reason I bring this up is that if I think villains hand is stronger than a normal open here I can 3 bet to a larger sizing knowing I am getting called more often than a typical opener would here. I think you can go as large as 14k here on the raise but I generally would probably put it in the 11-12k range here. Again I would not go that big over a typical opener but since I think I am getting called here more we can go for more value and bet larger.
As played on the flop I disagree with others about the sizing and would go bigger here, just not all that much bigger. The four reasons are one, there is a spade draw out there so we are getting called my two spades liberally and also getting called by hands with A of spades so we can bigger here and get value. Second is this is the best street we have to get value and villain will naturally be more likely to fold later streets so we should try to get some more value now while we can. Third is that if villain does have QQ, 1010, or 99 they might only call one street and then fold on the turn depending on the turn card so again we need to get a little more value while we can. If villain has nothing here then they are calling a small bet anyway. Fourth is our hand looks stronger betting like this than a lager bet would look. To me right now we are begging for a call a bit when we bet this small. I think I would be betting about 10.5k here on this flop. It will be a 3 street hand either way but again, lets try for value while we are most likely to get it.
The turn is a terrible move. Unless they villain really has something they are never calling here and if they really have something then we can just get it with a bet here and a bet on the river. Turn is perfect for a 15-16k bet (doesnt even have to be that big to setup a river shove). Jamming the turn in conjunction with betting small on the flop really lets the villain off easy here. They rarely have top pair due to our blockers and nothing outside of a set or straight is calling that bet. If they had a set on the flop you would already know about it so you would need the miracle of villain having 88 or 109 for this to work. Even then betting small is better and getting it on river.
As played on the flop I disagree with others about the sizing and would go bigger here, just not all that much bigger. The four reasons are one, there is a spade draw out there so we are getting called my two spades liberally and also getting called by hands with A of spades so we can bigger here and get value. Second is this is the best street we have to get value and villain will naturally be more likely to fold later streets so we should try to get some more value now while we can. Third is that if villain does have QQ, 1010, or 99 they might only call one street and then fold on the turn depending on the turn card so again we need to get a little more value while we can. If villain has nothing here then they are calling a small bet anyway. Fourth is our hand looks stronger betting like this than a lager bet would look. To me right now we are begging for a call a bit when we bet this small. I think I would be betting about 10.5k here on this flop. It will be a 3 street hand either way but again, lets try for value while we are most likely to get it.
The turn is a terrible move. Unless they villain really has something they are never calling here and if they really have something then we can just get it with a bet here and a bet on the river. Turn is perfect for a 15-16k bet (doesnt even have to be that big to setup a river shove). Jamming the turn in conjunction with betting small on the flop really lets the villain off easy here. They rarely have top pair due to our blockers and nothing outside of a set or straight is calling that bet. If they had a set on the flop you would already know about it so you would need the miracle of villain having 88 or 109 for this to work. Even then betting small is better and getting it on river.
C
Carlo35
Enthusiast
Thanks for the extensive review! Yes indeed i was scared that villain was holding AQ and that he would hit his street..happened to me to many times before already. And i used this betsize preflop, because sometimes when you bet big you scare villain away..
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Carlo35
Enthusiast
Thats true! That villain raised over a limper allows me to make my preflop betsize bigger, but you dont always get called by. And then i feel like i wasted a hand. But i should have noticed that and i sure will the next time! Thanxs for the advice! My move on the turn was because i was scared that villain would hit street on the river...there are 4 more 10 in the deck so he have 9% outs.. if i would bet Again on the turn ( even bigger) and he hits his street my set was gone..and my chips too.. Or is my mindprocess wrong? If you look at the board you dont get scared at all?
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Carlo35
Enthusiast
So i should always play like this? Always taking the risk that he could hit his street on the river? And i destroy my set. Also when youre deep itm and you need every chip you can get? I wont lose money in the long run if i play like this? Is that gto? Yes many questions i know lol
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fundiver199
Legend
Loyaler
AQ is a gutshot on this board. The hand has 4 outs, which on the turn is less than 10% equity. This mean, that if he call any bet larger than roughly 10% of the pot, he is making a mathematical mistake. Yet you bet 200% to make sure, he did not call. Just pause for a moment and think about, how extremely illogical that is. We win money in poker, when our opponents make mistakes, yet you are literally trying to force him to play well, because you dont want to get drawn out on. This is a common theme for poker players, but its a huge leak and something, you seriously need to work on.
This is also a highly illogical thought process and a total contradiction of, how you think about the hand on the turn. When you keep people in the pot preflop, they will also regularly draw out on you, yet this does not worry you, even though it absolutely should. Any AX has around 30% equity against KK preflop, and denying that equity is way more important and valuable than denying 8-9% equity to a gutshot on the turn. If he has AX, you dont actually even really care, if he call your 3-bet or fold. If he fold, you win the pot, and thats a totally fine outcome.
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Carlo35
Enthusiast
I know that it is a mathematical mistake,if they call your big size bet with only 4 outs .but when people have a healthy stack sometimes they do. A couple days ago on pokerstars i had pocket 10 ,i 3 bet the flop comes K 10 3 Villain goes all-in, i call.. he is holding A Q ,and the turn was the J he makes his street . I finished the tournament and i wasnt running bad Or people go all in on the turn to see if they hit their flush on the river...i experencied that and see that many times. You dont? But i play buy in till 20$ maybe thats got something to do with it
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fundiver199
Legend
Loyaler
Sure and this is, what we want them to do, because then we win more chips on average. This is also known as "getting value".
Then he was semi-bluffing and got there, which is not quite the same as calling. And this will of course happen from time to time. Losing hands and busting from tournaments is part of poker and can not be avoided.
Sure it happens all the time, and sometimes I am the one semi-bluffing and then getting there in one way or another. The goal in poker is not to win every hand or cash in every tournament, so I just suck it up and move on.
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Carlo35
Enthusiast
Oké thanxs on average, i keep that in mind ! Thanxs for the review!
Jon Poker
Legend
So i should always play like this? Always taking the risk that he could hit his street on the river? And i destroy my set. Also when youre deep itm and you need every chip you can get? I wont lose money in the long run if i play like this? Is that gto? Yes many questions i know lol
This is nowhere NEAR GTO - and just because villan could have a flush draw or AQ, doesn't mean they always have a draw...plus draws are unmade hands!! You want them to call you! That's how we make money. If you want to make all the chips you can, then jamming turn with top set for almost 2x pot is NOT the way to do it. Since you have all the Kings - what do you think your villan is going to call you with when you do this?? The answer is almost nothing. So we are losing money by jamming the turn here.
So what if villan hits their draw once in a while? Thats poker! Its one hand, who cares! We want villans to call with their draws since they will miss them more often than they will hit them. You can't be affraid villan will always have/hit a draw - when we make moves like this we push all of our villans weaker hands out of the pot and we don't make anymore $$.
Will you lose money playing like this in the long run...YES!! Because you won't make enough chips playing your strongest hands like this, and in the end you will lose value and make less. I'd rather make 100bb from my villan if I can, rather than setting for 25bb and then overbearing and pushing them out of the pot.