$5.50 NL HE MTT: TPGK on paired board

[Andyreas]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

5.50

Currency

$

Hey forum,

I would like to get some feedback on this hand I played.

Again mobile App on BOL, so no convertible HH but let me give it a try:

We're ITM in the tournament, about 10 players left, so close to FT bubble.

I'm 7th in stacks with around 26 BBs. Table is down to 5 players.

I get AQs in CO and raise to 2 BBs. BB calls (he has me covered, around 40 BBs).

Flop comes As7c7d.

I (c-)bet 1/3 of pot, he calls.

Turn comes Js.

I bet 1/4 of pot again, he calls.

River comes Ts. He donk bets 75% of pot. Hero?

My questions:

• Should I have bet the turn? Sizing?
• Can I call river?

Spoiler: My action

I folded since I'd have less than 10 BBs left and the amount of hands that beat me are too high: 7x, several straights or flush. But I'm thinking now he might have smelled my fear or weakness and just bluffed? I made a good bluff catch a few hands ago with a missed SD against some other player but didn't dare here. 😅

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard raise

Flop
This is an extremely dry flop and a way ahead way behind situation. Either he has a 7, if which case you are way behind. Or he does not have a 7, in which case you are way ahead with almost no risk of getting drawn out on. In top of that this is a situation, where you are under quite a bit of ICM pressure. For those reasons I prefer to check back and get myself one step closer to showdown. Not going broke here is significantly more important than winning a big pot. Especially since you cant get a lot of value from worse hands other than exactly AX, which you block. Betting small is not bad, but my personal preference is to check back.

Turn
All the broadways either paired or picked up a gutshot. So those hands will likely call again, and as played I dont mind a small bet.

River
This is obviously not the action, you were hoping for, and we can most likely all agree, that you only beat a bluff. Starting with his value range a flush is now possible, but its difficult to see, how he can possibly have that, when the A, J and T are all on the board. It would have to be a hand like K9, Q9 or even worse, which called the flop with just a BDFD. Which this deep in the tournament seem pretty unlikely. KQ however made a straight, and that is definitely a hand, that is supposed to continue on both flop and turn against your small sizing. So he can have that, and he can also have a 7 and decide to lead out out now, because he is afraid, you might check back AX. So there is definitely some value, that might play like this.

The bigger problem however is, there are no busted draws, when the flop was so dry. So for him to ever be bluffing, he would need to take a hand like KJ or KT and turn it into a bluff. Which is quite an advanced play, and since this is a 5,5$ MTT, its probably not happening very often. If you fold now, you still have 20BB left, which is enough to make it to the final table and try to do some damage there. So while I hate folding a hand as good as top pair second kicker in a fairly small pot, I agree with your fold.

 

[ADRI7HO]

Your raise of pot 1/3 and then pot 1/4 could indicate weakness on consecutive streets and a serious bluff call could come from your opponent, but as you said, there were dangerous cards on the table (he could even find a KQ line or A,10 his second pair may have arrived, so he may have thought that he is better), that the roll on the river seems better.
Maybe 1/2 or 3/5 of a pot could have been raised on the flop, and after a call of similar value on the turn, if you reraised, you could have thought about whether to go all-in or fold.
Difficult decision.

 

[fundiver199]

Just want to add, that if you check back flop, then its an easy call down on turn and river. The reason for that is, that now he can have anything, he called with pre, and just be trying to take the pot down, since you have shown weakness. Or maybe he could even be value owning himself with top pair no kicker.