$5.50 NL HE MTT: PKO Winter Series

[mariussica88]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

5.50

Game Options

1. Bounty

Currency

$

Same tournament like my previous hand. This is the hand number 6 so still not much info on the SB.

What I am interested in how would you guys play this river?

pokerstars, $4.90 + $0.60 - Hold'em No Limit - 75/150 (20 ante) - 7 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 22,336 (149 bb)
MP: 26,406 (176 bb)
MP+1 (Hero): 22,988 (153 bb)
CO: 23,717 (158 bb)
BU: 26,945 (180 bb)
SB: 20,735 (138 bb)
BB: 31,953 (213 bb)

Pre-Flop: (365) Hero is MP+1 with K♦ K♠
2 players fold, Hero raises to 450, 2 players fold, SB calls 375, 1 fold

Flop: (1,190) 5♥ 8♥ 5♣ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 797, SB calls 797

Turn: (2,784) T♠ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 1,364, SB raises to 3,300, Hero calls 1,936

River: (9,384) 3♠ (2 players)
SB bets 9,300, Hero ?

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard raise of course, and I like your sizing, because you are +100BB deep.

Flop
Standard C-bet, but like in some other hands, you shared, you are using a very large sizing. This is kind of old school and not in line with, what solvers and other modern software has told us to be the best strategy. There are flops, where a large size is GTO, but those are typically wet connected flops and certainly not a paired flop. Our goal here is not to play for stacks with just an overpair, when the SPR is around 20. So you dont need to go so big to build the pot, and a smaller sizing put more of his hands is a tough spot. If he has a hand like AJ of diamonds, he can easily just fold, when you bet so much. Whereas if you go smaller, he kind of have to peal at least one street. And if he dont, then you print money, when you are C-betting with nothing.

Turn
All the draws missed, so I think, its fine to go for another street of value, and I am not going to say to much about half pot. As I understand it, solvers almost never use that size, but it cant be that bad in this particular situation. Now though he raise, and this is definitely not ideal. This is a classic Beluga theorem spot, since you are cash game deep. The Beluga theorem state:

"You should strongly re-evaluate the strenght of one-pair hands in the face of a raise on the turn"

Technically you do have two pair here, but its kind of the same thing, since we are talking about a paired board. The point here is, the opponent is usually not raising a hand worse than yours for value, and its questionable, how often draws are taken for this line on a paired board. So even though draws are available, I tend to discount them quite a bit. If he has a hand like QJ of hearts or 76s, does he really want to reopen the betting and risk getting 3-bet in a situation, where stacks are very deep, and he could already be drawing dead?

Probably not. So I think, you are most likely behind and drawing to two outs here. Even so I would also call, because you are getting 4:1, and this is a low buyin, where some players will sometimes overplay their hand. Maybe he has T8 and dont understand, that the paired board significantly reduce the value of top two, since he still lose to trips and any overpair. Or maybe he has TX of hearts and raise it, because he is confused about, what to do with top pair + a draw. Or once in a moon he was slowplaying JJ or QQ and now he think, he is "springing the trap".

River
Now he is betting almost full pot, and of course you also no longer has any chance to improve. All the draws missed, but even so I would not make this call for the reasons, I already gave in my turn analysis. When he bomb the river like this, I think, a draw is even less likely, and the overplayed stuff is also much less likely now. If you call here, he will show you a boat or at least trips the vast majority of the time. This is the kind of laydown, we need to be able to make in cash games and also early in a deep stacked MTT like this.

 

[mariussica88]

So...Here is my thinking of the hand as I played it.

Pre-flop:
Since we are at the beginning I like to raise a little bit more then 2.5x since we are so deep and have no info on the players, and with a premium pair KK, QQ, AA I like to make them pay if they want to se a flop.
Also when SB calls I put him on a wide range meaning: any 2 suited cards, A10+, K10+ and also excluding QQ,KK,AA because even at this buy-ins players re-raise pre-flop this hands.

Flop:
I have the advantage of position here....so when I see him check I think that if I bet 2/3 I get a good info about SB range. (1 thing that I noticed especially in the PKO games is that players tend to play crap hand pre-flop thinking that they can hit something )
When he calls my c-bet now I put him on this range: 77->1010, JJ+ is out since he just called pre-flop (he might slow play but this deep I don't think is the case), I also put him on any 2 ❤️

Turn:
He checks again. Now only the 1010 hand is better then mine, so I decide to bet 1/2 pot thinking I am still good here. When he raise me (his raise is still small for 1010 !?! ) I put him on this range Q10, K10, A10, also the 77->1010 hands, and still any 2 ❤️. If he has 1010 I still don't think I can fold to such a small raise.

River:
is a card that does not improve him at all, but he decides to bet Pot. Now I am thinking only that I am beat. And I am thinking of the moves that he made and how he played that hand. I don't have any info on him only that he played 1 hand from 6 also with a call pre-flop. I took my time and think is he able to make a bluff like this with AJ, AQ, AK, any 2 ❤️? Is he value bet a 5x hand, a 1010+ hand, 88 ? But if he value bets would not have been better to move all in, or bet 1/3 pot if he wanted me to call?

 

[Andyreas]

As usual, there's not much too add to fundivers analysis.

Without the turn raise, he might also be bluffing on river for his missed flush. But that's not really in line with the turn play.

But if he value bets would not have been better to move all in, or bet 1/3 pot if he wanted me to call?

Well you're way too deep and he cannot win your bounty, so a jam is not adding a lot of value.

I'm still studying but I think his pot bet on river might be in line with GTO.

Full pot bets as bluff more often get through and usually more profitable. And since you shouldn't differ in betting sizes between bluff and value, also full pot bets as value make sense.

I usually don't really dare to bet full pot as bluff or value yet though. 😅

 

[fundiver199]

Flop:
I have the advantage of position here....so when I see him check I think that if I bet 2/3 I get a good info about SB range.

"Information" is never the main purpose of betting. In this situation you are betting to make worse hands call AKA "betting for value".

(1 thing that I noticed especially in the PKO games is that players tend to play crap hand pre-flop thinking that they can hit something )

Maybe but there is quite a bit of difference between a $1.1 PKO and a $5.5 PKO like this. Especially since this is part of a series. You will see a wide variety of players in this tournament all the way up to full time pros, who have 100.000`s of dollars in profit in online MTTs. So without knowing anything about the opponent I would default towards putting him on a rather snug range, when he call from SB. Maybe its capped, because he would 3-bet his best hands, but I definitely need info to assume, his range contain a lot of "crap". A hand type, which is very common to see here, is a small to medium pocket pair trying to setmine out of position.

When he calls my c-bet now I put him on this range: 77->1010, JJ+ is out since he just called pre-flop (he might slow play but this deep I don't think is the case), I also put him on any 2 ❤️

Yeah that sounds pretty reasonable. If he is in there with 5X, then he obviously wont fold that either.

Turn:
He checks again. Now only the 1010 hand is better then mine,

You also still lose to 88, 55 and 5X like maybe A5s, 75s, 65s, 54s to mention the most reasonable combos.

so I decide to bet 1/2 pot thinking I am still good here. When he raise me (his raise is still small for 1010 !?! ) I put him on this range Q10, K10, A10, also the 77->1010 hands, and still any 2 ❤️. If he has 1010 I still don't think I can fold to such a small raise.

Just top pair should not be check-raising you here. Of course it will sometimes happen, but a competent player will not do it, since it tends to make all better hands call and most worse hands fold.

But if he value bets would not have been better to move all in, or bet 1/3 pot if he wanted me to call?

If I had to guess his hand, then I guess a boat. On the turn he gave you a very good price. This makes a lot of sense with a boat, because he want to keep in your draws, that are drawing dead. On the river though you are obviously not calling with a busted draw, so now he is only targeting overpairs and trips. And he goes as large, as he think, you might call. He made it just under full pot, which is basically the same as a store selling something for $99 rather than $100.

 

[puzzlefish]

This looks very familiar like most of my overpair boards recently where I get outdrawn. I think the lack of a jam on the river is actually enticing you to rejam on him.

 

[Svetluj]

Did you call him? I think it was 88

 

[mariussica88]

Did you call him? I think it was 88

Yes I did call him. This is the full hand

PokerStars, $4.90 + $0.60 - Hold'em No Limit - 75/150 (20 ante) - 7 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 22,336 (149 bb)
MP: 26,406 (176 bb)
MP+1 (Hero): 22,988 (153 bb)
CO: 23,717 (158 bb)
BU: 26,945 (180 bb)
SB: 20,735 (138 bb)
BB: 31,953 (213 bb)

Pre-Flop: (365) Hero is MP+1 with K♦ K♠
2 players fold, Hero raises to 450, 2 players fold, SB calls 375, 1 fold

Flop: (1,190) 5♥ 8♥ 5♣ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 797, SB calls 797

Turn: (2,784) T♠ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 1,364, SB raises to 3,300, Hero calls 1,936

River: (9,384) 3♠ (2 players)
SB bets 9,300, Hero calls 9,300

Total pot: 27,984

Spoiler

Showdown:
SB shows A♣ T♦ (two pair, Tens and Fives)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 28%, Flop: 13%, Turn: 11%, River: 0%)

MP+1 (Hero) shows K♦ K♠ (two pair, Kings and Fives)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 72%, Flop: 87%, Turn: 89%, River: 100%)

MP+1 (Hero) wins 27,984

 

[fundiver199]

So SB had AT offsuit, and you won the hand, which is of course always sweet. However even knowing this outcome, I would still have folded on the river. The opponent here was clearly a recreational player and overplayed his hand to an extend, where he pretty much forced you to always have a better hand, when you call him down. This will happen from time to time, but I dont think, it happens 1 out of 3 times, which we need to make a profitable river call. So for me I would need some more info on this opponent, before I start to make calls like this.

 

[mariussica88]

So SB had AT offsuit, and you won the hand, which is of course always sweet. However even knowing this outcome, I would still have folded on the river. The opponent here was clearly a recreational player and overplayed his hand to an extend, where he pretty much forced you to always have a better hand, when you call him down. This will happen from time to time, but I dont think, it happens 1 out of 3 times, which we need to make a profitable river call. So for me I would need some more info on this opponent, before I start to make calls like this.

Yes I agree with you here...That's why I put in the hand whiteout the result. I do believe that my call here was based on the specific dynamic of the table and mainly I went with my instinct here, but long term this call is a -EV call...and most of the time I loose money playing like this.

So I decided to put the hand here up for debate to hear everyone thinking and opinions of it. Thank you.