$5.5 NLHE MTT: what line you prefer

[chakalaka]

pokerstars, $4.90 + $0.60 - Hold'em No Limit - 1,500/3,000 (375 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 9,685 (3 bb)
UTG+1: 34,443 (11 bb)
MP: 130,437 (43 bb)
MP+1: 40,636 (14 bb)
CO: 83,901 (28 bb)
BU: 94,658 (32 bb)
SB: 95,150 (32 bb)
BB (Hero): 70,469 (23 bb)

Pre-Flop: (7,500) Hero is BB with 7♣ A♥
4 players fold, CO raises to 6,000, 1 fold, SB calls 4,500, Hero 3-bets to 70,094 (all-in), CO 4-bets to 83,526 (all-in), 1 fold

hi guys!

90 people left, we are in the cash already. ICM shows me correct push. IMO I like it too, because if we win we have pretty nice stack to play. Also next level of payment will be when 72 people left, which is nice for me to push here.

 

[ZenGreen]

Right idea, wrong hand. Im not 3betting 23bb here with A7o unless I have good idea this player will fold. Im happy about nothing getting called here.

I mean im sure the numbers like it, but if this dude hasnt shown to be to crazy,

but then you are ITM and you cant win without a stack!!!!

but damn this is what I tell myself when I bust out like this. I way more on board with 17-18bb range, you have a little time to bust out the proper way with AK or AA KK LOL!!!!

 

[MoryMorte]

What is the range of opponent here? When you ran it in the ICMizer, what did you give to V?
I like this move more when there is more ICM pressure because V might fold 22-TT or even JJ to our shove. V also folds A2-AT or maybe AJ AQ if there’s more ICM pressure. But here and ITM, he will call of with most of these hams that have your hand dominated or a good edge. Still should be a +EV play but a marginal one. I’d rather not take the variance for small EV spots unless I’m multi-tabling tourneys and trying to just win it.

 

[300HPGOD]

This is one of those hands and spots where all the options that are available to us I dont like too much so what you have to try to do is find the one that sucks the least. I dont like calling since if an ace flops we still dont know where we are at. Min raising is not any good because no one will fold. Raising to any decent amount will not commit us but the c bet that will need to follow probably will unless we 3x pre, one caller and then 1/3rd pot but not sure how often that will work. Jamming here makes villains play perfectly against us. Anything we beat they fold except for maybe KQ and there we are only 55/45 ish favorite. Folding seems nitty because of the insane price we are getting. I guess with all that being said it will come down to the initial raiser and how tight and weak have they played. If they are tight aggressive im folding here, if they are aggressive yet weak post I might call/raise or jam. I think since nothing seems good this has to be strictly villain dependent. With no read and this stack size, it sounds crazy but I probably just fold here. Its going to be tough to play post flop if we get a caller and we easily can be jamming into stuff here where we are out. This plays so much differently with a shorter stack but with 23BB here I would rather preserve it.

 

[7CardKillR]

If you think he is light you could just 3 bet and apply pressure to his opening range and to his stack. if he jams just fold. otherwise I probably call against a not too tight opponent. Sorry but for me when I think about what my hand wants to do against his range Jam just doesnt come to mind.

 

[fundiver199]

I plugged your hand into ICMizer telling the program, it was a 900 man "big" with 100 players left and an average stack of 70.000 chips. Under these conditions ICMizer has you jamming 23% of hands, but this does not include A2o-A8o. Also there are two points here, which are both rather important.

1) ICMizer assume, you can only fold or jam. It does not calculate, if calling is more profitable than jamming. And since you are closing action and getting like 6:1, calling is a fairly attractive option with a lot of hands.

2) You always want to check, if ICMizer put your opponents on realistic ranges. In this case they are calling your jam with 8% and 10% of hands respectively, which seem fair enough to me. However CO is opening 41%, which is a bit wide, and more importantly SB is calling the initial open with 63%, which is extremely wide and in my opinion unrealistic. So you probably want to lock up the SB initial calling range at something more realistic, and if you do that, the 23% jamming range will shrink even further.

So on balance this jam is a little bit spew in my opinion. I have certainly done something similar myself, but its simply to aggressive. Instead this should be a somewhat close decision between calling or even folding, since the hand plays rather poorly postflop. Its actually a concern here, that SB has called, because rather than having 63% of random hands, a SB call usually mean something pretty decent, and a lot of that "pretty decent" has A7o dominated. Personally though i would probably call but not be very excited about it.

 

[vsawake01]

This is fold.
1. For you that hand not even a coin flip (more likely). A lot of dominated hands.
2. Fold equity. Not sure. Villain not table chip leader and this is not a blind steal (to my mind of course).

3. You around 50-60 place now (by your table).
4. As said before ICMizer should be set up for current situation. (And I totally agree).

 

[chakalaka]

What is the range of opponent here? When you ran it in the ICMizer, what did you give to V?
I like this move more when there is more ICM pressure because V might fold 22-TT or even JJ to our shove. V also folds A2-AT or maybe AJ AQ if there’s more ICM pressure. But here and ITM, he will call of with most of these hams that have your hand dominated or a good edge. Still should be a +EV play but a marginal one. I’d rather not take the variance for small EV spots unless I’m multi-tabling tourneys and trying to just win it.

I put like 35% opening range, so A7o now it's - EV shove... I'm not sure that he could fold 99 or TT when I shove. 18 tables left to next payment, so it would be too tight fold.

 

[chakalaka]

This is one of those hands and spots where all the options that are available to us I dont like too much so what you have to try to do is find the one that sucks the least. I dont like calling since if an ace flops we still dont know where we are at. Min raising is not any good because no one will fold. Raising to any decent amount will not commit us but the c bet that will need to follow probably will unless we 3x pre, one caller and then 1/3rd pot but not sure how often that will work. Jamming here makes villains play perfectly against us. Anything we beat they fold except for maybe KQ and there we are only 55/45 ish favorite. Folding seems nitty because of the insane price we are getting. I guess with all that being said it will come down to the initial raiser and how tight and weak have they played. If they are tight aggressive im folding here, if they are aggressive yet weak post I might call/raise or jam. I think since nothing seems good this has to be strictly villain dependent. With no read and this stack size, it sounds crazy but I probably just fold here. Its going to be tough to play post flop if we get a caller and we easily can be jamming into stuff here where we are out. This plays so much differently with a shorter stack but with 23BB here I would rather preserve it.

I was thinking about squeeze here, but after I saw that I will be actually really pot commited (even if only CO calls), so I didn't like it, because A7o doesn't play good postflop. I prefer here have 50bb effective and represents something stronger than I could right now

If you think he is light you could just 3 bet and apply pressure to his opening range and to his stack. if he jams just fold. otherwise I probably call against a not too tight opponent. Sorry but for me when I think about what my hand wants to do against his range Jam just doesnt come to mind.

You prefer to call here? We have of course odds to call here, but position sucks and our hand also sucks. What do you do on Q97r? Check/call?

I plugged your hand into ICMizer telling the program, it was a 900 man "big" with 100 players left and an average stack of 70.000 chips. Under these conditions ICMizer has you jamming 23% of hands, but this does not include A2o-A8o. Also there are two points here, which are both rather important.

1) ICMizer assume, you can only fold or jam. It does not calculate, if calling is more profitable than jamming. And since you are closing action and getting like 6:1, calling is a fairly attractive option with a lot of hands.

2) You always want to check, if ICMizer put your opponents on realistic ranges. In this case they are calling your jam with 8% and 10% of hands respectively, which seem fair enough to me. However CO is opening 41%, which is a bit wide, and more importantly SB is calling the initial open with 63%, which is extremely wide and in my opinion unrealistic. So you probably want to lock up the SB initial calling range at something more realistic, and if you do that, the 23% jamming range will shrink even further.

So on balance this jam is a little bit spew in my opinion. I have certainly done something similar myself, but its simply to aggressive. Instead this should be a somewhat close decision between calling or even folding, since the hand plays rather poorly postflop. Its actually a concern here, that SB has called, because rather than having 63% of random hands, a SB call usually mean something pretty decent, and a lot of that "pretty decent" has A7o dominated. Personally though i would probably call but not be very excited about it.

Thank you for your analyse. But still I don't want because of our position and without any specific reads on two players. It's still hard and not so clear situation in that spot.

 

[fundiver199]

Thank you for your analyse. But still I don't want because of our position and without any specific reads on two players. It's still hard and not so clear situation in that spot.

Its certainly not a great spot, since with a hand like A7o we will mostly flop either nothing at all or a bluff catcher. But you are getting 6:1 and closing action, so you really dont need to win all that often to justify putting in that extra 1BB to see a flop. Still if you are not comfortable with the postflop situation, there is nothing to wrong with folding. From a more theoretical standpoint the fact, SB has already called, also means, BB has less obligation to defend.

 

[chakalaka]

Its certainly not a great spot, since with a hand like A7o we will mostly flop either nothing at all or a bluff catcher. But you are getting 6:1 and closing action, so you really dont need to win all that often to justify putting in that extra 1BB to see a flop. Still if you are not comfortable with the postflop situation, there is nothing to wrong with folding. From a more theoretical standpoint the fact, SB has already called, also means, BB has less obligation to defend.

Hmmm, that's makes sense that I have a good odds to call and see flop, but it doesn't commit me with the pot at all. Thanks!