$5.5 NLHE MTT Rebuy: $5.5$ NLHE MTT Rebuy: Hard decision on River with QQ

[Larmuar]

In this Hand i was facing a hard decision on the river. After I folded I told him "u were lucky" (refeering to the ace), then he replied "No, i bluffed with 99". His answer could be true I guess, because he was so specific about his hand (and turning it into a bluff).

What do you think about the Hand in General? Should I shove the turn? Call the river? Or is the fold ok? Thank you for your thoughts!

888 Poker - 1000/2000 Ante 250 NL - Holdem - 9 players, already in the money, about 100 ppl left

SB: 32.81 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 5)
BB: 18.56 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 10.87, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 48)
UTG: 18.38 BB (VPIP: 15.79, PFR: 11.73, 3Bet Preflop: 11.59, Hands: 171)
UTG+1: 57.97 BB (VPIP: 13.58, PFR: 8.00, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 162)
MP: 42.94 BB (VPIP: 14.38, PFR: 10.60, 3Bet Preflop: 5.77, Hands: 153)
MP+1: 9.61 BB (VPIP: 20.16, PFR: 15.54, 3Bet Preflop: 6.21, Hands: 370)
MP+2: 15.1 BB (VPIP: 15.25, PFR: 12.07, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 59)
Hero (CO): 50.67 BB
BTN: 10.38 BB (VPIP: 9.76, PFR: 7.89, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 41)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.63 BB) Hero has Q♠ Q♦

fold, UTG+1 raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 6.42 BB, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls 4.42 BB

Flop: (15.46 BB, 2 players) 5♦ 5♣ J♦
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 7.73 BB, UTG+1 calls 7.73 BB

Turn: (30.92 BB, 2 players) A♦
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

River: (30.92 BB, 2 players) T♣
UTG+1 bets 43.7 BB and is all-in, fold

UTG+1 wins 30.92 BB

 

[GreenDaddy1]

I think you invited that river shove by showing weakness and checking the turn on that slightly scary board. I'd be more inclined to throw out another bet on the turn on that board with QQ, something around half pot or maybe as low as 35-40%. You might be ahead with QQ, and you have some equity with that flush draw. A bet around that size controls and size of the pot and additionally you're adding some fold equity on top of that. By checking you've allowed villain to take advantage of the scare card on the turn, regardless of whether he now has AA or not. (Don't forget there are Aces in your 3bet range also - meaning he can be putting you on AA now too)

I'd prefer the slightly more aggressive play and turn Cbet because there have got to be some hands in villain's range that you have beat. HUD stats indicate villain open raising about 8% of hands, but perhaps lower that a bit given early position and could assume perhaps 88+, ATs+, AQo+ & KQs (5.6%).
Can then probably take out AA & KK, assuming villain would have 4bet, and also QQ as chances of that are low. That leaves 88, 99, TT, JJ, AKs/o, AQs/o, AJs, ATs, KQs, assuming villain would call a 3bet & then a Cbet with all of those.
You're way ahead of that range on the flop, about 77% to 23%. But yeah the turn card does hurt you, suddenly villain is ahead with that range 55% to 45% (due to the amount of Ace combos).

Admittedly I have a lot to learn myself, but with relatively deep stacks for a tourney, I'm continuing to show some aggression on that turn because I can still win this pot nearly 50% of the time without going broke (add in the fold equity with chances of villain folding the weaker aces he might hold in addition to other hole cards, and consider the amount I could win if I hit the flush draw or make a set, it just feels too weak to check the turn here for me). Of course if villain raises or shoves from that point forward I'm giving up.

As played I'm never calling the shove.

 

[nts50]

River Decision

I think all in all you played the hand very well. It's an especially interesting hand because you're blocker heavy. Definitely make note of the player and look to trap them later on with a similar line when you nut the flop if you can.

On the flop you can reduce your cbet by 3bb's potentially achieving a couple of things:

1. Induce a check raise from UTG+1 on the flop giving you more information / options for the hand. This can also allow you to depolarize your CBET range regarding future hands should you choose to take the same flop line with lower showdown value hands like ak,aq high, or even complete air occasionally.

You can also mix in some delayed CBETS when you're in position heads up to change the composition / flow of the hand.

2. It will effectively reduce the turn pot total so you can comfortably double barrel and bet (.32x to .5x)POT on the turn should the UTG+1 check to you again. A lot of times this will induce the UTG+1 to check call turn, as well as check the river whether they plan on check raising river, or not. Sometimes this can also allow you to realize your showdown equity and make more overall sound decisions on the river.

I hope that makes sense, this is my first time analyzing a hand with words. Thanks for sharing!

- Noah

 

[iceiceice]

Agree with the posters above me.

Can c-bet smaller on the flop. 30-40% is good on paired boards in 3bet pots. Villain shouldnt have too many 5s, just A5s.

Worst turn card ever. Opponent has AK,AQ a lot here given how tight he is.

When facing a river shove, you can just comfortably fold. of the hands you 3bet, QQ is probably your worst hand. You can have AK,AQ,AA,JJ here instead.

 

[formertroll]

In this Hand i was facing a hard decision on the river. After I folded I told him "u were lucky" (refeering to the ace), then he replied "No, i bluffed with 99". His answer could be true I guess, because he was so specific about his hand (and turning it into a bluff).



UTG+1 wins 30.92 BB

i agree that the shove was invited by the check. if you continuation bet there what does he call with? and what would he think you have? the range would be condenced a lot more by betting, if he raises you can fold there but if he calls you're the one in control.

 

[ph_il]

I call river because there is no hand they are over jamming for value.

Our Qd and the Jd, Ad on the board blocks a lot of possible flush/straight draw combinations they could have. If they do have the flush, it's going to be something like 109s, 810s, or 67s. But they're never over jamming a weak flush on river. Kd10d flush is possible, but never over jamming river. KQ straight is never over jamming river. Ax or 2 pair [AJ, A10, 10J] is never over jamming river. The pairs: AA, JJ, 1010, 55 and A5s is never over jamming river.

So, what hand are they over betting with on the river if they're looking to extract max value? Note that I'm not saying it isn't possible they could be over jamming these hands on the river, but they're only getting called by better and worse is folding in this situation.

This looks like a middle pair float on flop, steal attempt on river or complete air.