$5.5 NLHE MTT: JJ blind war

C

chakalaka

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pokerstars, $4.90 + $0.60 - Hold'em No Limit - 4,000/8,000 (1,000 ante) - 7 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 413,459 (52 bb)
MP: 85,820 (11 bb)
MP+1: 235,262 (29 bb)
CO: 109,854 (14 bb)
BU (Hero): 276,813 (35 bb)
SB: 184,518 (23 bb)
BB: 771,964 (96 bb)

Pre-Flop: (19,000) Hero is BTN with J J
4 players fold, Hero raises to 16,000, SB 3-bets to 183,518 (all-in), BB 4-bets to 351,036, Hero calls 259,813 (all-in)

Hello guys!

blind war, pretty standard open. It's not a bounty tournament. SB is a shit reg, bb is a normal micro reg.
36 left.

Do we ever fold here? It looks like a standard call.

Cheers!
 
F

fundiver199

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Just looking at this and pretending, I had to make this decision in real time, I would fold. Just in general we need to respect it quite a bit, where there is multiway all-in action. This was a late position confrontation, sure, but even so BB has no fold equity, and given that SB started with 23BB, the chips, you put in, is almost meaningless to him. So is he really making this move with TT or AJ? I think those hands get folded by a "decent reg". And if his range is only JJ+, AK, then you are totally smoked, and you are not getting a good price.

But lets plug this into ICMizer and see, what the program has to say. "Big" 900-man, 36 players left, average stack on the other tables 300k chips. Heros Nash equilibrium range is calling with TT+, AK, so calling JJ is indeed the "standard" or GTO play. However ICMizer assumes, SB is pushing 24% of hands, and BB is overjamming 9,8% of hands. And I just dont think, this is realistic at all.

One of the limitations of ICMizer is, it assumes pure push and fold. And for 23BB I think, most players will also have a range, that just call from SB. I think, SB is realistically jamming closer to 10%, which by the way is 66+, ATo+, A9s, KJs+. If we lock up the SB range to these 10%, then BB is only overjamming 5%, which is 99+, AQ+. And I think, even that is still fairly optimistic. But even so Hero is now only calling JJ+, and JJ is toally break even, its not making any money.

So its one of those spots, where in theory you are supposed to call, if SB is playing pure push and fold, and both are playing at the NASH equilibrium. But especially if SB was a "bad reg", I think, this is very far from the reality, and that we can get away from JJ here and find a better spot to invest our 33BB remaining stack.
 
3

300HPGOD

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In game and when I went through the replayer one action at a time I came to the conclusion that I would fold which I think is a mistake on my part. Really taking the time to look at this it comes down to what we think about the villains (which you posted and thank you for that) and also what BB thinks of SB. If BB thinks the way we do about SB then I can see a scenario where BB thinks we are just attempting to steal and SB is a bad player that is jamming something light here. If I had to range them its probably something like SB has A8+ and 55+ (that might be wide but depends on if they are shoving correctly or not) and BBs range is something like 77+ and AJ+. Not sure what a solver would say against those specific ranges but its probably a call based on that.

Our stack size comes into play here too as if we were deeper and still covered I would be leaning more to folding but at this sizing I think calling is probably correct. We are going to run into sometimes but going with JJ on 35 BBs I think is reasonable. Other thing we have going for us is I doubt either SB or BB ever thinks we are as strong as we are here. They both probably think we are button stealing and opening 40-60% of our range there (depending on your table image). The more I think about this its a call but I know the nit I am would fold this in game. In game Im happy to snap off one and not loving/scared to call 2 all ins.
 
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kkonicke

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You can virtually guarantee bb has a strong holding here. Sb could be marginal considering how often you could be opening in that spot. I still think I'm calling this one. Jj is very good and bb can be jamming with enough worse pairs and ak/aq that I think it's a profitable call. And actually, it's certainly possible bb thinks sb might be making a play and it's trying to isolate with a small to medium pairs. He also has chips to get away with a small mistake.
 
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fundiver199

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Just want to add, that for me this is a very read dependent spot. So it really depends on, what we mean by "shit reg". Such terms are useless, because they dont actually tell, what we think, he might be doing wrong. Do we think, he is bad, because he is playing to tight and straight forward, or do we think, he is bad, because he is splashing around chips with to many mediocre holdings? Depending on, which one it is, we need to put him on very different ranges. And probably also BB on very different ranges, because BB should also have observed, how SB play, if he is a decent reg.
 
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