$5.5 NLHE MTT: 99 on a 9JKhhh board FT bubble short stacked

[JoeKampman]

So after I played this hand and busted out, I checked my equity preflop and started wondering if I should've been in this hand at all?

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - 3,000/6,000 (750 ante) - 4 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

Villain (UTG): 76,206 (13 bb)
MachinistJoe (BU): 45,772 (8 bb)
yankeejc (SB): 70,202 (12 bb)
31hammer2073 (BB): 67,093 (11 bb)

Pre-Flop: (12,000) Hero (MachinistJoe) is BTN with 9♦ 9♣
Villain (UTG) raises to 12,000, MachinistJoe (BU) calls 12,000, 2 players fold

Flop: (36,000) J♥ 9♥ K♥ (2 players)
Villain (UTG) bets 6,000, MachinistJoe (BU) raises to 33,022 (all-in), BigMoneyVisions (UTG) calls 27,022

Turn: (102,044) 4♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (102,044) 4♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 102,044

Showdown:
Villain (BU) shows 9♦ 9♣ (a full house, Nines full of Fours)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 18%, Flop: 7%, Turn: 2%, River: 0%)

BigMoneyVisions (UTG) shows J♣ J♦ (a full house, Jacks full of Fours)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 82%, Flop: 93%, Turn: 98%, River: 100%)

BigMoneyVisions (UTG) wins 102,044

 

[fundiver199]

With 8BB you should have been all in before the flop. Short stack tournament poker is mostly about luck, and sometimes its just your turn to die. This was such a time.

 

[QA77]

Shove preflop. No other way to play this.

 

[yoejslattery]

Agree with the above. Any pair is a monster 4 handed. Going all in with the set is standard too in that situation. Bit of a cooler to get 99 when he had JJ and you both hit a full house.

 

[TheDude6622]

There's honestly no getting away from this. Your stack wouldn't scare away the other player with a shove. Just really unlucky flop.

 

[JoeKampman]

Thanks everyone. Usually I shove or fold starting around 15BB. It was a five minute blind structure and at this point the blinds increased dramatically. I let the next payout increase effect whether or not I shove, I was hoping to make the next pay jump. Everybody at the table was less than 15BB. So even in a situation like this I should be shoving or folding?

 

[Ianmacca99]

Shoving there is correct he just happened to wake up with a hand but think he's calling anyway. Unlucky but no getting away from it

 

[fundiver199]

Thanks everyone. Usually I shove or fold starting around 15BB. It was a five minute blind structure and at this point the blinds increased dramatically. I let the next payout increase effect whether or not I shove, I was hoping to make the next pay jump. Everybody at the table was less than 15BB. So even in a situation like this I should be shoving or folding?

Yes. If you did not want to bust right now, because an important payjump was imminent, then much better to save your chips and hope you get a chance to open shove some reasonable hand, before the blinds come around to you. When this short it is always better to be the first to enter the pot, because you dont have a lot of fold equity, when someone already invested at least 2BB. You would not be giving up a huge amount of EV by folding the 99, and it could be an acceptable although nitty option, if you wanted to level up.

 

[EvertonGirl]

I would of shoved, you have 8bbs there is no point in calling gii pre.

 

[fundiver199]

I would of shoved, you have 8bbs there is no point in calling gii pre.

Calling is indeed the far worst option. We are putting in 25% of our stack, and if we end up folding on a bad flop, of which there are many for 99, now we have even less fold equity, if we pick up a hand later. Shoving > folding >> calling.

 

[JoeKampman]

Yes. If you did not want to bust right now, because an important payjump was imminent, then much better to save your chips and hope you get a chance to open shove some reasonable hand, before the blinds come around to you. When this short it is always better to be the first to enter the pot, because you dont have a lot of fold equity, when someone already invested at least 2BB. You would not be giving up a huge amount of EV by folding the 99, and it could be an acceptable although nitty option, if you wanted to level up.

After the hand I was thinking the same thing. If I would have shoved he would’ve called. When the flop gave me a set I thought I was good. That’s why I was saying I didn’t know if I should even have been in the hand to start with. I guess I didn’t word it right. Should I have folded to his open would have been a better question. Nines are medium strength against any board with over cards. Still I should’ve shoved because you can’t play scared at the FT.

 

[fundiver199]

I also think, shove is the correct play here. The difference between 9 and 10 is typically fairly small, so "the final table bubble" is mostly a psycological thing. The real payjumps come near the top, so its when, its down to 5 or 4, that you might want to become a bit more tactical and ICM-aware. Especially if someone is so short, he pretty much has to go all-in within the next orbit.

 

[Veritas]

Thanks everyone. Usually I shove or fold starting around 15BB. It was a five minute blind structure and at this point the blinds increased dramatically. I let the next payout increase effect whether or not I shove, I was hoping to make the next pay jump. Everybody at the table was less than 15BB. So even in a situation like this I should be shoving or folding?

if you consider the payjump, then you should have folded. calling puts us in a terrible spot because chances are high that we see an overcard and we can't call for set value with 5-6bbs behind.
shove or fold should be the only two options