This is a discussion on $5.5 NLHE MTT: 77 - overplay turn? within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; PokerStars, $4.90 + $0.60 - Hold'em No Limit - 700/1,400 (175 ante) - 8 players
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UTG: 41,500 (30 bb)
UTG+1: 101,035 (72 bb)
PREFLOP: easy standard I think or maybe it's good spot to 3bet/call on 30bb eff? But I dont think so.
FLOP: bet for protection and for value. He x/r and I have enough odds to call even if he play 50% with premium and ATs+, sometimes nuts.
TURN: it's awesome. I remember I consider a lot what to do and decide to jam and trying to get call from worst hands like A-high. Also jam here looks much more worst than just a bet I think.
What do you think and what you would play here?
Calling has merits, but so does 3-betting, especially when you have twice his stack. A 3-bet really sucks for him, because he has to commit 20-25% of his stack preflop, and he is out of position. If you 3-bet, you have to fold to a 4-bet jam though. 77 is not good enough to call it off for 31 bigs.
I would go for a somewhat larger bet, since any A high have 7-10 outs, and when you bet this small, he is not even making a mistake by calling you. Him check-raising is kind of weird with his stack size, because he could just go bet, bet, bet and easily get it all in. So to me this mainly look like, your small sizing induced a bluff, and therefore i am definitely not folding. There are also no good turn cards for you other than exactly a 7, so I lean toward just getting it in now. It feels a bit wild to 3-bet jam 77 on the flop, but I think, you are likely to be ahead.
As played I like jamming now. I mean: Does he ever check-raise A4, I dont think so. So when he check again, I feel even more, you probably have the best hand, and that he was just goofing around on the flop. I guess he could be playing tricky with a set, that just filled up, but there are only 7 combos of those, and if he is really that lucky, then good for him. If you lose this hand, you still have an around average stack, and it just is, what it is.
Pre flop I think this is a call or fold. I say it is not a 3 bet because if we get jammed on we should be folding. My decision would come down to what type of player is the BB sitting there with about 20 BBs and nice shove stack. If they are competent at all I might lean towards folding here but calling and making them make that jam is not terrible either even though we would lose some chips out of it. If the BB is not a competent player and does not realize they have a shove stack then calling imo is the best play. The hand strength we have is good for a 3 bet but the other stacks at the table should deter us from 3 betting here.
On the flop when checked to I would be thinking Ax is most of villains range. I dont see why they would have 55+ and check here (maybe they get tricky with AA since they have less to worry about with the 234 flop) so I am definitely thinking non pair hand with overcards to the board. With that I would bet here but go bigger. I dont mind them folding here since we arent going to like many/any turn cards. I would go between 4500-5500 here and try to get villain to fold out their overcards here. When we get raised here I would be thinking that it is odd villain would do this but their range now is sets, big pairs, and some air (frequency depending on villain). The air here could be Ax hands that might be able to put themselves on 2 overs and a gutter straight or they could see a small bet from you which inclines them to bluff. I would proceed cautiously in this hand but would call. However almost any turn that comes up the villain can fire into us and we are going to have some problems. I dont love calling, I dont love folding and I dont love jamming since I think we are only getting called by better when we jam here. It does fold out equity when we jam but Im not liking it.
Im shocked when the villain checks to us on the turn but I take that check as strength. I think sets would definitely check behind here knowing they have the effective nuts so they would try to induce us to bluff and make their raise on the flop look bluffy. I would check behind here and pray that I could get to a showdown somewhat cheaply. Jamming here as you did I think turns your 77 into a bluff and at this point you are going against a Ax that was bluffing but will now fold or you are jamming into a strong hand. I would rather just get to the river and decide there what to do and I am not sure you get a better hand to fold here that would have played it the way villain did. If villain had 88-1010 here then yes you might get those to fold but I dont think villain plays the hand this way with those holdings.
I cant comment on the river as played if I did it my way but my plan on the river would be to see how much villain bets and then make a decision based on pot odds whether or not to make the call. I rarely would think villain would check to me on the river but if they did I would happily check behind. My way is playing the hand passively but I feel if you are in a spot where your up against it or are getting bluffed at that you can just be in check call mode (within reason based on bet sizing) and try to bluff catch.
Looking at this again I tend to agree with 300HPGOD, that the play here is to check back turn and then evaluate river, if we did not stack off on the flop. I think, that by jamming turn, you are just forcing all his bluffs out of the hand and only getting snapped off by hands, that beat you. If the river is a A or 5, its pretty easy for us to get away, and on other cards we can make a decision based on, what kind of price he is offering us. Or if he check again, we can check back and take a note on, what the heck he had, that he played in this weird way.
Nice post. Hard spot. I like everything you did and if you lost, it's a bummer, good thing you had a nice stack going. Wouldn't 3 bet pocket 7's in this particular situation, simply a call to see the flop is good. The rest I would have done the same also. Maybe bigger bet on flop.
I don't think he had A 5 here. With the nuts a 3 bet would be silly on the flop since there is no flush draw or anything. With A 5 normally you would hope the other guy keeps betting either with a worse hand or a bluff.
Most likely he had better pocket pair or turned a full house. Don't believe he had a 4 either. Could go either way, I don't know. You played the hand well in my opinion. After he 3 bets the flop which seems to be a bluff all day and after his check on turn, would have gone all in like you 100%.
Feels like a set or the wheel - or an Ace/pair type hand.
I think your either crushing him, or you are WAY WAY behind.
Either way - (I'm a little tighter than you I'm sure) I don't like the jam on the turn. I'd rather extract more value from a station that can't fold a pair with the Ace kicker.
Interesting line though - thanks for sharing.