This is a discussion on $5.5 NLHE MTT: $5,5 NLHE MTT: call or fold? before bubble within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; PokerStars, $4.90 + $0.60 - Hold'em No Limit - 200/400 (50 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker
UTG: 2,103 (5 bb)
UTG+1: 3,780 (9
Pre-Flop: (1,050) Hero is BB with K♥ 4♠
UTG raises to 2,053 (all-in), 7 players fold, BB (Hero) folds
Do you fold or call here? It's still before bubble. ICM shows me that I should fold because of his 24% of his shoving range. Villian is really nit - after 44 hands has 3/3 stats, so maybe he could shove his 5bb even wider than 24%.
I think I would rely on my hand history with villian. If he has been playing loose I'd call. If he has been nitty I'd fold. K4o is on the weaker side of my calling range. Player dependent. For 1 or 1.5 less bb I'd call with any suited connecter, Ax or Kx hand such as this. For 5bb I'd rely on his judgements in previous hands. Good fold in my opinion
re: Poker & $5.5 NLHE MTT: $5,5 NLHE MTT: call or fold? before bubble
Looks like a fold to me. What range you are giving you opponent? Itís pair, ace and king heavy and your hand doesnít do well against that range. There will be better spots to take rather than punting off 5 BB
Since this is only for a small percentage of your stack, you can do a simple equity calculation and than maybe adjust slightly from there to account for ICM. You are paying 1.700 chips to win 4.840, so you need 35% equity to break even. That sound like, it might be a call, however K4 offsuit is one of those hands, that look better, that it actually is. It has a high card, but its neither suited or connected.
We can calculate equities in Equilap, which is a free program, and even if I give him any pair, any ace and any broadway, you still only have 35%. And this is very optimistic. If he has been playing like a nit, is he then really putting in his last chips, when he is UTG with hands like A2 offsuit or JT offsuit? Probably not in my opinion. So in a best case scenario this is break even in pure chip EV, and in a more realistic scenario its a losing call even in chip EV. In top of that you have to make some allowance for ICM, especially if its near the bubble. Calling and losing wont put you out of the tournament, but it will at least put you a step closer.