$5.5 NL HE STT:

[fundiver199]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

STT

Buy-in

5.5

Currency

$

Hand is from the first blind level of a 5,5$ 6-max SnG on ACR. Opponent is a SnG reg playing VPIP 23 / PFR 20 / AF 3 over 313 hands. Do you fold, call or jam river?

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - 10/20 (2 ante) - 6 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 606 (30 bb)
MP: 2,880 (144 bb)
CO: 1,738 (87 bb)
BU (Hero): 1,960 (98 bb)
SB: 2,836 (142 bb)
BB: 1,980 (99 bb)

Pre-Flop: (42) Hero is BTN with K♥ Q♥
3 players fold, Hero raises to 60, 1 fold, BB calls 40

Flop: (142) K♣ 6♠ 5♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 57, BB raises to 164, Hero calls 107

Turn: (470) 3♥ (2 players)
BB bets 267, Hero calls 267

River: (1,004) 8♠ (2 players)
BB bets 884, BU (Hero)?

 

[Andyreas]

Phew, tough question.

If I read the stats correctly, he plays rather tight. But those BBs usually have a very wide range.

The board allows for several straight opportunities.

His bet of more than 3/4 of the pot on the river is a little weird to me though. Either it's a huge value bet or a huge bluff because he missed his flush draw. He could also have hit second pair with river. 🤔

I guess I would not jam it. Either I would have called or folded. If you call and loose, you still have 30ish BBs left since it's very early in the SnG.

The longer I think about it, I would vote for a fold. But on the table I might have also called this bet.

 

[puzzlefish]

I don't like KQsh on this board. Your villain is playing for pretty much most of the stack and you have a top pair with the second best kicker. I would speculate that you are playing against a set or AK here. Maybe once in a while you are playing KQ vs. KQ, but I don't see villain raising with it on the flop so likely AK. A fold for me.

 

[fundiver199]

Thanks for your comments. In real time I gave some serious thoughts to this thinking, that maybe this is actually a GTO call, because I dont block any busted draws, and I block some two pair combos, that might take this line for value. But I ended up folding, because I felt, that when a low stakes reg takes this kind of line, they usually show up with the goods, if you call them down. I have plenty of painfull memories about this kind of situation from back when, I was playing cash games at stakes like 10NL on pokerstars and 888 Poker, and with 100BB starting stacks this is pretty much the same as a cash game.

Also as Andyreas say, its not like, I am getting a good price here, when he bomb the river for around 90% pot. So again we can consider, what this most likely mean? Its a pretty safe runout, so is he thinking "now I need to go big to get this guy to finally fold top pair"? Or he is thinking, "I can get top pair to call a very large bet on this runout but probably not an overbet, so I will make it 90% of the pot". I think, the latter is far more likely, so I decided to fold and never find out, what he had

 

[Arnakk2424]

Fold vs a reg
Also its a 6man SNG. In those you need to stay alive more then accumulate chip

 

[fundiver199]

Fold vs a reg
Also its a 6man SNG. In those you need to stay alive more then accumulate chip

Good point although with all 6 players left and pretty much the starting stack, ICM is not yet that extreme. But there is also an opportunity cost, if I call and lose. It would leave me with around 30% of the starting stack, and while not impossible its quite a bit of an uphill battle to come back from there. Yes its 30 bigs right now, but soon the blinds will go up and limit me to pretty much play 1 street poker, where skill edges are smaller. Whereas if I keep 75% of my starting stack, I give myself a chance to play with deeper stacks against the weaker players at the table. For the record I did end up cashing, but cant remember if it was first or second place. And I knocked the reg out in third or fourth place, which was quite a good feeling

 

[eetenor]

In your games is it possible to use the 25% sizing or does that induce more XR from V? If yes you can use that sizing this is a strong spot for that sizing- followed by pot or pot + turn bets---We have no back doors so betting smaller flop makes XR smaller so we can call to river for less then decide rivers

 

[Matt_Burns88]

This is definitely a tight spot. When he bets almost pot on the river, we can assume he's fairly polarised, especially after he check raised the flop. This would lead me to think he either has, two pair, sets, or draw that missed, such as clubs. I don't see him playing hands like 74 or 42 that get there on the turn, but I guess he can have some 97s, particularly 9c7c, not sure he's check/raising flop with any other combos of 97.

So we have 1 combo of K6s, 2 combos of K5s, 9 combos of 65 (assuming they're calling with unsuited as well), 3 combos of 66 and 3 combos of 55. 18 combos in total of value hands.

Bluffs, we have 10 combos of Axc, maybe QJc, JTc plus 97c 87c and 76c (maybe 43c). They may also be check raising flop with all their 87s, so we can add 3 more combos. What else do we think they are bluffing with? And how often are they bluffing with all of these hands?

If we just go with these raw numbers, they have 18 value hands vs 19 bluffs. with the pot odds of 2.1:1, it looks like it this is just about a fold. Then when you consider villain, might not be playing all his bluff combos and more likely, might not be pulling the trigger with all of his bluff combos, I think this ends up being quite a clear fold, but not obvious or easy to work out in real time

 

[fundiver199]

So we have 1 combo of K6s, 2 combos of K5s, 9 combos of 65 (assuming they're calling with unsuited as well), 3 combos of 66 and 3 combos of 55. 18 combos in total of value hands. Bluffs, we have 10 combos of Axc, maybe QJc, JTc plus 97c 87c and 76c (maybe 43c). They may also be check raising flop with all their 87s, so we can add 3 more combos. What else do we think they are bluffing with? And how often are they bluffing with all of these hands?

Given that I opened on BTN, he should be defending wider than, had I opened from EP or MP. It was a slightly large 3BB open, but we were also 100BB deep, so it was just 2% of his stack to see a flop. I think, that means, he can have a lot of offsuit hands including all the 2 pair combos. But he can also have more potential bluffs like all 12 combos of 87 etc. The real question is, if he always pull the trigger on a big tripple barrel with his busted draws, or if he sometimes check and give up. 87 rivered a pair, so he could perhaps choose to check thinking, that sometimes I check behind, and he beat a busted flushdraw.