This is a discussion on $.45 NLHE MTT: Smaller value on River? within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; This is a .45 satellite tournament still pretty early.
Standard raise PF and I pickup 2 callers. I flop a set and with 2 callers
This is a .45 satellite tournament still pretty early.
Standard raise PF and I pickup 2 callers. I flop a set and with 2 callers and 2 diamonds on board, I am not going to slow play and bet 1/2 pot. One caller and the Turn is basically the nuts unless he has 76.
Caller seems interested in this pot so I bet for value and get called again. No idea what he could be calling with so far. He would have jammed 44 or 77 here, At this point I think he has a flush draw or A7 A6 A4 (?!). I also think he would have raised PF with a big pair so not including those in the range - but he might have called w/55 or 88 from the BB. As bad as I have seen him play, maybe he is still calling with K6 K7. Not a big sample, but over 31 hands he has a 45 0 in my HUD.
River completes a flush and I really hope that's what he was chasing. I lead again for around 1/3 pot. He folds so clearly didn't make a flush and perhaps concerned that I did. Or he just had nothing. I have seen him do crazy stuff. He called off his whole stack (92bb) a little later with 99 when I hit a K with AK on a clean flop and was a 95% favorite. Then he rivered a set. Cruel runout. This tourney is really hard to win.
Should I be going for a smaller value bet on the river of this hand?
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I think on the flop you are supposed to check almost range on this flop.
So adjustment id make in micros/low stakes is to bomb all streets to get value from their wide calls.
Hope this helps and Good Luck!
I think you played this hand near how I would have played it myself. except for the river. I have some small differences about bet sizing but in the end you are near what I would have bet. I am not a 3x pre and that is just me so if you are going to open 66 then I would personally just go 2.5x. However we are very deep here so 3x is not bad by any means and in the long run probably better than 2.5x but just giving my preference to 2.5x.
On the flop there are two diamonds on a connected board and our raised got called pre so villain could have nothing but overcards but they could still call with those. I think you should be betting here as you did and I might have gone a hair bigger like 60% of pot but nothing wrong with going half pot. I feel like the opponents that truly want to float here will float even on a 60% bet. I dont calling here to give a free card when we can get some value from our strong hand.
On the turn when we get a boat so if we were shallower I could see checking here since we could then get action to our check and still get it on river but we are effectively deep against one opponent so I like continuing here. If villains have nothing they are more than likely checking behind anyway but if they have something (hopefully 7x) then we can make a lot more by betting. The sizing you use is fine to me since it is a spot where they are folding to even a small bet if they have nothing so might as well go for some value.
The river I think you can play in many ways but I think the bet you make will be interpreted for value more often than a check would or a overbet jam would. Depending on if opponent is aggressive or call station esque is what would determine if I check or jammed. Not saying your bet sizing is bad but it does scream value town.
I think your bets were fine. On the river, I would bet bigger to get max value. I guess smaller bet gets called more often but you raising preflop and betting all the way shows a lot of strenght or looks suspicious. Since you don’t have a diamond, charge more since I don’t think he folds a flush.
re: Poker & $.45 NLHE MTT: Smaller value on River?
Standard open and I like using this rather large sizing with deep stacks.
I would also bet for value here. We could be behind to a flopped straight, but even then we have 37% equity, and we can get value from so many other hands.
Great card since it fills us up, so now we dont need to worry about anything other than getting as much money as possible in the pot. Even so I would size down a bit, because we really dont want them to even consider folding a straight- or flushdraw, not that they are drawing dead.
Puts out diamonds and a 1-liner to a straight, and I actually think, check-jamming is a very sexy option here. If he just made a straight or flush, he will likely bet it when checked to, and then we can go for max value against those hands. At this limit few players will be good enough to bet-fold the river, when their nominal hand strength is that high. And we essentially have the nuts here, even though there are a few combos, we potentially lose to, including 54 of diamonds, which made a straight flush on the river.