This makes no sense. If it's such an easy shove, it should be very easy to explain.
Wow..I've already said why it's an easy shove. Check my comments as to why it's easy to shove. I will break it down because I'm not repeating for a 5th time. stack sizes, tournament structure + SD equity means it's a shove imo.
There are three shorter stacks and one equal stack. We may not be technically on the bubble but how many hands until we are? More than 10?
Right..so this makes our decision even easier. If we shove, we have SD equity + our tournament life isn't on the line.
Exactly..10 hands down the line if we haven't shoved we are in a much worse shape than we are now + there is a high chance we will be one of the shorter stacks. I'd much prefere to take my "gamble" now and have SOME equity even if not great..than literally be blinded away and have no equity after we call of with 3,9os for example. This spot is clearly a gamble spot based on the structure.
No you did not say "why". You say folding loses equity, is bad poker, is unacceptable outside of the bubble... These are statements. Not arguments. They don't explain anything.
I'm struggling to see why you are struggling understanding me?We HAVE SD equity, we have short stack, tournament structure is bad, these are not arguments these are FACTS and good enough ones to justify shoving yet you are saying they don't explain anything? They explain exactly WHY we SHOULD be shoving.. There isn't an argument for folding, as no ICM is in play, no bubble play is in the making.
You're turning it upside down. You are the one who is stating we don't have FE. So I ask you, why is it so good to shove 44 here when there is always someone calling and we are almost never better and often worse than a flip, while we actually have a chip lead over most of our opponents?
My opinion is that if indeed we do not have any FE it makes a case for folding.
Indeed..I've always said we don't have FE..everyone is so short that FE doesn't exist against even shorter stacks. We aren't exactly deep ourselves.
It's so good to shove 44 here based on again, like I say..we have equity to WIN the hand if called. I think you're wrong...we are often good with any pair in most cases against someones calling range when they are so shallow stacked like 3-4blinds. These guys should be nearly calling alsorts of suited hands based on the dead money and having no chips left. If they keep folding and folding they will be blined it. If they wake up with a better pair, good for them, they got lucky to get a spot where they pick up a good pair. We EXPECT to called in most cases but we don't expect to be worse, we expect to be flipping in most cases and because of the structure in this tournament, this is a good spot. Flipping for such short stacks is the best outcome in most cases. I'm unsure as to why you think we're worse and only caled by worse? This is not true..when soemone is so short. People call of much, much wider when they are 10blinds deep with any suited hand, a,x/k,x etcetc..so if we get those calls at 10blinds deep, you can expect nearly ATC calling at this point with 3-4blinds left.
Also, we have a chip advantage yes, but we are not in good shape at all. We NEED to win a flip here and there to get a good stack for the paid places. If we fold here, we're giving away a 3k pot which is dead money and we still have chips in play when called and we lose. If we get someone elses stack we are in great shape, we can bully and put pressure on the others. You need to put the pressure on when you have a bigger stack, you need to get others to put their tournament life on the line.
If we fold like I say, we give up a lot of dead money and a good chance for a 10k stack to have the same amount of chips as us in the next couple of hands, or even better by busting someone else meaning within 2 hands, we could become the shorter stack and being bullied by the new equal/bigger stack who won the pot we shoudd of been trying to win ourselves.
It seems your argument assumes that we are going to get exactly one caller. I put to you that considering the stack sizes, one of two things is happening:
- Table is very nitty, blind structure is reasonable, there should've been much less people left at this point but hero is the only one making plays. In this case, no-brainer shove, because you have FE and a hand that may hold up should you get a caller.
- Blind structure is awful. Everyone is now in a rush to get his chips in. Your shove isn't going to ever push everyone out so the best you can hope for is a flip.
So why do you assume we are getting no less and no more than one caller?
I don't assume that at all..if we get more than one caller, so be it, we know at least one is busting and there is a chance our fours still hold so we still have equity + we have outs to hit our set. Chances are we are getting called by broadways..if we get more callers with broadways, this only increases our equity even more.
FE or not (I don't believe FE exists at this point) We are not in great shape ourselves, we need a double up or two still to be comfortable. We can't wait around..a pair is good here to shove with.
If we fold, we are just giving away chips at the end of the day.
I ask you, would you be happy shoving in this spot with A,10suited+? Even A,JS?+ If so, then our 4'4s our in better shape than their over cards. We are only beat by higher pairs...and that's is a chance we take.