This 4 outs and hitting against me is getting old really quick..

twizzybop

twizzybop

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Apr 24, 2005
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So far I have lost 22 straight when someone needed 4 outs.. Last I recalled that is only 8% to hit. Which means for the law of avg's I should win the next 386 out of 400 while someone has 4 outs. Yet the funny part is I'll win when someone has 9+ outs go figure.

Stage #235595316 Tourney ID 50391 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit $400 - 2005-11-11 09:56:27 (ET)
Table: 11 (real money) Seat #1 is the dealer
Seat 1 - TWIZZYBOP ($40920 in chips)
Seat 4 - R6TRAVEL ($10946.68 in chips)
Seat 6 - SLOPPYDRUNK_ ($24048.33 in chips)
Seat 8 - RAMBLER1 ($24120 in chips)
Seat 9 - SEVENSSLAVE ($6345 in chips)
TWIZZYBOP - Ante $75
R6TRAVEL - Ante $75
SLOPPYDRUNK_ - Ante $75
RAMBLER1 - Ante $75
SEVENSSLAVE - Ante $75
R6TRAVEL - Posts small blind $400
SLOPPYDRUNK_ - Posts big blind $800
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to TWIZZYBOP [Js Qd]
RAMBLER1 - Folds
SEVENSSLAVE - Folds
TWIZZYBOP - Raises $3200 to $3200
R6TRAVEL - Folds
SLOPPYDRUNK_ - Calls $2400
*** FLOP *** [Qs Ah 9c]
SLOPPYDRUNK_ - Checks
TWIZZYBOP - Bets $4000
SLOPPYDRUNK_ - Calls $4000
*** TURN *** [Qs Ah 9c] [7s]
SLOPPYDRUNK_ - Checks
TWIZZYBOP - Bets $3200
SLOPPYDRUNK_ - Calls $3200
*** RIVER *** [Qs Ah 9c 7s] [Jd]
SLOPPYDRUNK_ - Checks
TWIZZYBOP - Bets $4000
SLOPPYDRUNK_ - All-In(Raise) $13573.33 to $13573.33
TWIZZYBOP - Calls $9573.33
*** SHOW DOWN ***
SLOPPYDRUNK_ - Shows [10d Kh] (Straight, ten to ace)
TWIZZYBOP - Mucks
SLOPPYDRUNK_ Collects $48721.66 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($48721.66)
Board [Qs Ah 9c 7s Jd]
Seat 1: TWIZZYBOP (dealer) HI: [Mucked] [Js Qd]
Seat 4: R6TRAVEL (small blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 6: SLOPPYDRUNK_ (big blind) won Total ($48721.66) All-In HI:($48721.66) with Straight, ten to ace [10d Kh - B:Ah,P:Kh,B:Qs,B:Jd,P:10d]
Seat 8: RAMBLER1 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 9: SEVENSSLAVE Folded on the POCKET CARDS
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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- 6 outs (any river K or J).

- Either bet more on the turn or just give up and check/fold. That bet is so weak it's almost begging him to draw out on you.

- I doubt very much that you actually have lost that many in a row.
 
twizzybop

twizzybop

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Oh yeah forgot the king.. and yes it happens quite a bit to me. 6,4.. ooh his excuse was.. he was tired and also had a feeling with disregards to any odds. I have only hit that lucky hand once.. runner, runner.

Even my stats are pretty good..out of 3684 hands..I have seen the flop 39% and won 54% of the times I have seen the flop. Alot has to do with heads up on sit and go's.

By the way he said he would have called anything even an all-in so it wouldn't have mattered what I bet. But you are correct though in my bet was small.. only 1/6th of his chip stack. I do try to mix my bets up though.. hate being predictable even that late in the game. But thank you :)
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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twizzybop said:
By the way he said he would have called anything even an all-in so it wouldn't have mattered what I bet. But you are correct though in my bet was small.. only 1/6th of his chip stack. I do try to mix my bets up though.. hate being predictable even that late in the game.

Problem is by betting so small you're giving JT or 2 clubs correct odds to draw (and although the stack sizes would probably make folding the draw the correct option, you want your opponent to be making as big a mistake as possible).
 
twizzybop

twizzybop

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Thank you.. I can take constructive critisizm :).. Yet make it makes sense. I haven't done it alot lately but I've been betting bigger the the norm and taking down more pots. More aggresive but not to aggresive.. That's one thing I am learning alot lately.. Being aggresive does win more than just plain betting the norm.
 
twizzybop

twizzybop

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Here you wanted to see another one.. granted I shouldn't have been in this hand but non-the less.. Lost to 4 outs to come..

Stage #236475511 Tourney ID 51462 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit $75 - 2005-11-12 08:36:41 (ET)
Table: 22 (Real Money) Seat #2 is the dealer
Seat 1 - BIGGFISHH ($2925 in chips)
Seat 2 - SEVENSSLAVE ($4520 in chips)
Seat 3 - DEMOSTHEN3S ($2645 in chips)
Seat 4 - REDBARON1 ($12015 in chips)
Seat 5 - V FREY ($8330 in chips)
Seat 6 - JULIBIRD ($7945 in chips)
Seat 7 - TWIZZYBOP ($4185 in chips)
Seat 8 - HARRYD11 ($2155 in chips)
DEMOSTHEN3S - Posts small blind $75
REDBARON1 - Posts big blind $150
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to TWIZZYBOP [10d Js]
V FREY - Folds
JULIBIRD - Folds
TWIZZYBOP - Calls $150
HARRYD11 - Folds
BIGGFISHH - Calls $150
SEVENSSLAVE - Folds
DEMOSTHEN3S - Calls $75
REDBARON1 - Raises $450 to $600
TWIZZYBOP - Calls $450
BIGGFISHH - Folds
DEMOSTHEN3S - Folds
*** FLOP *** [9s 5s 7d]
REDBARON1 - Checks
TWIZZYBOP - Checks
*** TURN *** [9s 5s 7d] [Jc]
REDBARON1 - Bets $750
TWIZZYBOP - Calls $750
*** RIVER *** [9s 5s 7d Jc] [Ah]
REDBARON1 - Bets $900
TWIZZYBOP - Calls $900
*** SHOW DOWN ***
REDBARON1 - Shows [10s Ac] (One pair, aces)
TWIZZYBOP - Mucks
REDBARON1 Collects $4800 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($4800)
Board [9s 5s 7d Jc Ah]
Seat 1: BIGGFISHH Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 2: SEVENSSLAVE (dealer) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 3: DEMOSTHEN3S (small blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 4: REDBARON1 (big blind) won Total ($4800) HI:($4800) with One pair, aces [10s Ac - B:Ah,P:Ac,B:Jc,P:10s,B:9s]
Seat 5: V FREY Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 6: JULIBIRD Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 7: TWIZZYBOP HI: [Mucked] [10d Js]
Seat 8: HARRYD11 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
 
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