$4.50 NLHE MTT: Do i have the odds with AQ here ?

[Daniel72]

In a $4.50 180man non-turbo sng, three all-in´s - what should i do with my AQ here ?
pokerstars Hand #84780749003: Tournament #601033032, $4.10+$0.40 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2012/08/15 19:03:10 ET
Table '601033032 4' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: MtgoExodia (2810 in chips)
Seat 2: Ultimatum7 (1460 in chips)
Seat 3: Daniel72ko (1405 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 4: GektorRUS (3270 in chips)
Seat 5: Sick Wolf (1360 in chips)
Seat 6: KidZanimado (1813 in chips)
Seat 7: danblou1973 (4797 in chips)
Seat 8: bagzik123654 (1605 in chips)
Seat 9: Iggster11 (2908 in chips)
Sick Wolf: posts small blind 15
KidZanimado: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Daniel72ko [Qc As]
danblou1973: raises 4767 to 4797 and is all-in
bagzik123654: folds
Iggster11: folds
MtgoExodia: calls 2810 and is all-in
Ultimatum7: calls 1460 and is all-in
Daniel72ko:

 

[BlueNowhere]

Snap fold and it's as not close as anything will ever be. Heres a pretty optimistic sim imo. You can even add a few spew shoves/calls like 89s and it still isn't really that close
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
51,080,082 games 50.071 secs 1,020,153 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.649% 14.29% 02.36% 7297726 1206664.33 { AQo }
Hand 1: 20.040% 18.78% 01.26% 9590878 645870.83 { JJ-22, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 2: 26.494% 24.79% 01.70% 12662214 870828.83 { 55+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 3: 36.817% 35.21% 01.60% 17987596 818727.33 { TT+, AQs+, AKo }

 

[baudib1]

Snap fold, not close as Blue said. Even if both your cards are live (as in no one has QQ+/AK) you will almost never have all 6 cards left in the deck.

 

[TEG2300]

Am I missing something you have over 25M and have a big stack shoving over 100M and two callers right? I do not see a universe where you call with AQ.
IMO you have to think about laying down QQ here not snap, but it would be marginal to me. You have so much tourney left. Especially if the field is this weak they will give you a better spot.

I am not a season vet so I am sincere when I ask if I am missing something.

 

[baudib1]

Not folding QQ.

 

[kidkvno1]

Fold, it's to early to get busted out. It's only the 2nd level in the blinds, let the crazy's bust them self's out.

 

[A2345Razz]

( ) Games are dead.

What would the thought process be behind calling here if I may ask?

I see some really odd calls in tournaments and just wonder sometimes about the logic people have because sometimes they come from decent players...or at least people who havent played that badly up till then..

 

[MediaBLITZ]

Unless that new movie you want to see so badly starts in 5 minutes - FOLD.

 

[Daniel72]

My thoughts were: these crazy shove donks can have anything, i can quadruple up and have a premium hand

 

[MediaBLITZ]

My thoughts were: these crazy shove donks can have anything, i can quadruple up and have a premium hand

My thought is I will own the crazy donk that sucks out a win on this hand.

You can either play poker or spin the wheel of fortune to accumulate chips early - they both work but one of them actually lets you keep playing into later rounds when you are clearly looking at -EV.

 

[Daniel72]

And here is the complete hand:
PokerStars Hand #84780749003: Tournament #601033032, $4.10+$0.40 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2012/08/15 19:03:10 ET
Table '601033032 4' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: MtgoExodia (2810 in chips)
Seat 2: Ultimatum7 (1460 in chips)
Seat 3: Daniel72ko (1405 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 4: GektorRUS (3270 in chips)
Seat 5: Sick Wolf (1360 in chips)
Seat 6: KidZanimado (1813 in chips)
Seat 7: danblou1973 (4797 in chips)
Seat 8: bagzik123654 (1605 in chips)
Seat 9: Iggster11 (2908 in chips)
Sick Wolf: posts small blind 15
KidZanimado: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Daniel72ko [Qc As]
danblou1973: raises 4767 to 4797 and is all-in
bagzik123654: folds
Iggster11: folds
Daniel72ko has returned
MtgoExodia: calls 2810 and is all-in
Ultimatum7: calls 1460 and is all-in
Daniel72ko: folds
GektorRUS: folds
Sick Wolf: folds
KidZanimado: folds
Uncalled bet (1987) returned to danblou1973
*** FLOP *** [Kd 9h 3d]
*** TURN *** [Kd 9h 3d] [8d]
*** RIVER *** [Kd 9h 3d 8d] [4c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
danblou1973: shows [7h 7d] (a pair of Sevens)
MtgoExodia: shows [Qs Qh] (a pair of Queens)
MtgoExodia collected 2700 from side pot
Ultimatum7: shows [9s Ts] (a pair of Nines)
MtgoExodia collected 4425 from main pot
Ultimatum7 finished the tournament in 135th place

 

[MediaBLITZ]

And here is the complete hand:

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Daniel72ko [Qc As]
danblou1973: raises 4767 to 4797 and is all-in
bagzik123654: folds
Iggster11: folds
Daniel72ko has returned
MtgoExodia: calls 2810 and is all-in
Ultimatum7: calls 1460 and is all-in
Daniel72ko: folds
GektorRUS: folds
Sick Wolf: folds
KidZanimado: folds
Uncalled bet (1987) returned to danblou1973
*** FLOP *** [Kd 9h 3d]
*** TURN *** [Kd 9h 3d] <font color='red'>8<font face="arial">♦</font></font>
*** RIVER *** [Kd 9h 3d 8d] <font color='black'>4♣</font>
*** SHOW DOWN ***
danblou1973: shows [7h 7d] (a pair of Sevens)
MtgoExodia: shows [Qs Qh] (a pair of Queens)
MtgoExodia collected 2700 from side pot
Ultimatum7: shows [9s Ts] (a pair of Nines)
MtgoExodia collected 4425 from main pot
Ultimatum7 finished the tournament in 135th place

Good fold - were you able to get some of those chips off of MtgoExodia?

 

[jordanbillie]

I miss pokerstars.

 

[hackmeplz]

I thought you had 5bb at first and was like wow that sucks still a fold. Then I saw blinds 15/30 not 150/300 and you had 50bb. Calling is lighting money on fire.

 

[Loonbat]

Snap fold and I also agree not folding QQ here. I AM folding JJ (that being my cutoff). AKo folding more often than not here, and probably calling AKs.

 

[BigThingWithHolesInIt]

Good fold - were you able to get some of those chips off of MtgoExodia?

Note that MtgoExodia is the only one not out of line here.

 

[doomasiggy]

Note that MtgoExodia is the only one not out of line here.

Err, what am I missing? We shouldn't be going all in with QQ pre?

 

[BigThingWithHolesInIt]

We should, that's what I'm saying.
Previously MediaBLITZ said he would prefer to get the chips of the "crazy donk who sucked out in this hand" and then he followed up asking if he got some of MtgoExodia's chips. I felt like pointing out there's no reason given to assume that player is actually a crazy donk.

 

[MediaBLITZ]

We should, that's what I'm saying.
Previously MediaBLITZ said he would prefer to get the chips of the "crazy donk who sucked out in this hand" and then he followed up asking if he got some of MtgoExodia's chips. I felt like pointing out there's no reason given to assume that player is actually a crazy donk.

Easy to say after you know the outcome of the hand. I did not and it was easy to assume there were some less than stellar players in the hand who could have sucked out on the one guy who actually deserved to be in the hand.

And just because he held QQ and made a brainless call (required no brains) neither is there any reason to assume you can't get his chips - but then again...

 

[BigThingWithHolesInIt]

We don't have to make a big deal about this. The point is that the two players who went out had proven themselves as donks by showing down their hands. Had either of them won the pot, we would now be able to exploit that in later pots with them.
Just pointing out that since the correct decision won the day, there is no such tell to be exploited yet.

 

[MediaBLITZ]

We don't have to make a big deal about this. The point is that the two players who went out had proven themselves as donks by showing down their hands. Had either of them won the pot, we would now be able to exploit that in later pots with them.
Just pointing out that since the correct decision won the day, there is no such tell to be exploited yet.

Not sure what tells has to do with it - he's now the guy with the most chips. As such he gets my attention a little more than most.
Why are you making such a big deal out of this?

 

[BigThingWithHolesInIt]

Yeah I'm out, I might injure my face or palm or something.

 

[MediaBLITZ]

Yeah I'm out, I might injure my face or palm or something.

:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

I like this one - you can stay

 

[Pascal-lf]

easy fold

 

[shinedown.45]

easy fold

snap call, it's not like there's a 3-bet on the table