$4.40 NLHE STT: Should I have folded AA on the turn?

[Jacki Burkhart]

This is a 9 man SnG. They call it a "beginner" SnG which just means 4 players are paid instead of 3.

6 players remain. Blinds are 50/100

stacks are as follows

hero UTG 1975
UTG+1 2225
Cut-off 675
Button 1225
SB 2380
BB 2600

I've been pretty inactive and I pick up UTG and raise to 250


UTG+1 flat calls. everyone else folds. pot contains 650


flop is


I bet out 400. he flats. Pot now contains 1,450 and I have 1,325 behind.


turn is the I bet out 700 and he goes all in.


Here is my read: He is TAG. likes to play in position and put the pressure on, but slows down a bit when he has a very strong hand. He is a better than average post flop player.

If he had a straight he would probably slowplay by flatting because there are no flush draws out there.

He shouldn't have flopped 2 pair because of his TAG style.

I doubt he flopped a set because he would have re-raised me preflop with 99+ but it is possible he flopped a set of 66 except I think he would have raised me on the flop.

It is possible he turned 2 pair with KQ, but mostly I am putting him on 1 pair hands that picked up a draw like KJ or something similar, and I am mildly concerned that he turned 2 pair. The hand I fear most is KQ (except I also think with his TAG style he would have raised my flop bet with KQ. Let's put it this way I don't think he would have FLATTED the flop with KQ I think he would have folded, jammed, or at least min raised.)

So, I don't really know where I'm at. I mostly fear 2 pair but I think it is highly possible he just has top pair and a draw. Also, most of my chips are already in the middle, and if he does have 2 pair I have a few outs...if he has a straight already I'm drawing dead...but I just can't read him for a straight at all....

to call or not to call?

 

[Poker Orifice]

Why do you assume he wouldn't just call flop with KQ ?
This ^ makes no sense to me.

 

[steveiam]

I'm with Oriface on this he could easily have KQ. But you called anyway ?

 

[RamdeeBen]

I doubt a TAG is calling TJ here so we can rule that out, KQ makes sense and 66. I agree with PO, I think he's much more likely to flat KQ than raise the flop. It makes no sense to raise the flop given you're UTG raiser you can have AK in your range and shoving would only fold out worse hands and get called by better.

There are going to be times you're beat here, but there is also a chance he's spazzing out with one pair hands we have crushed. I'm just thinking, micros and beginner tournaments they can easily over play some hands they feel are the best - I call. Certainly not betting 700 of my 1.4k and thinking about folding. Even if we are behind, we have outs and our price is just to good to fold imo. If we lose, we're out (Not a big issue) if we fold we're stuck with 7bb and we're not even on the bubble so ICM isn't a big factor. If we call and are ahead we're chip leader.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

I thought KQ was possible, but I just thought he would have played it different.

anways, I called feeling it was about 50/50 that I was ahead. He had QJ for a pair and a gutshot.

 

[jj20002]

first your raise preflop should be stronger, like 4bb, then the fact the villain is limping means he has not neither KK nor AA, and actually i don´t think he has AK nor QQ, but flatting your bet he could have KQ, K9, JT, 99 or 66 (no reraise here because those are spec hands) and in this cases you are losing

but you could be winning too with hands like JJ, TT, 88 or 77, also A9, AQ, QJ, QT, KJ, KT, so i think you still have a chance over fifty percent, but really need more info about the villain

 

[jaworek1405]

I read some opinions. Maybe raise pre flop 3x or 4x is better than 2,5x. As played - everything looks good. If he hits better hand on the flop or on the turn, you can nothing to do. It happens, sometimes he hits set, sometimes two pair, sometimes AA is broken. Here what we can do, fold? I probably never fold AA on board like this, if he has better than my AA I would be very angry but it happens. Besides you still have some outs to win this hand even if he had KQ. Every an Ace, 9 or 6 - give you better two pair or set, 8 outs, so IMO here should be call. Take care

 

[OMGITSOVER9K]

so you say he likes to slowplay postflop.. but then say he would've raised you on the flop with his nut hands, which is it?

and I doubt he 3bets 99 UTG+1 vs an UTG open imo, not to disregard your reads.

so he can have 99/66/KQ/AK(?) and then nothing much else really is he's not retarded.

also if we have AK here we can make flop a bit bigger to shove turn.

 

[Arjonius]

It seems your thinking may not be completely consistent. For instance, you say he's TAG but also that he would have 3-bet you pre- from UTG+1 with 66. At this level, this isn't impossible, but neither is it likely. Even with 99, quite a few TAGs will just call.

You also say he's a decent post-flop player, but that he wouldn't have flatted the flop with KQ. Why not? AK is obviously in your range, with more combos then than AA. Plus you did cbet OOP, which you didn't have to do. So calling to pot control seems reasonable enough.

As for whether to call his shove, you should have answered that before you decide to bet the turn. After you put in 700 with only 600+ behind, it's hard to envision folding.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

It seems your thinking may not be completely consistent. For instance, you say he's TAG but also that he would have 3-bet you pre- from UTG+1 with 66. At this level, this isn't impossible, but neither is it likely. Even with 99, quite a few TAGs will just call.

No, I actually said I thought he would reraise me preflop with 99+, but he might have flopped a set of 666....but your point is well taken, my thinking may not be consistent, that is why I am posting this hand. I had a difficult time knowing where I was at.

You also say he's a decent post-flop player, but that he wouldn't have flatted the flop with KQ. Why not?

Well, I actually didn't say he couldn't have KQ I said it was the hand I feared most, I just thought he would play it differently. But when you spell it out for me, I agree with your perspective that KQ is completely reasonable hand for him to have...I can see that, too. I just felt like if he flopped as strong as KQ he would have put the pressure on on he flop. I may be wrong...reads are never perfect; especially mine.

As for whether to call his shove, you should have answered that before you decide to bet the turn. After you put in 700 with only 600+ behind, it's hard to envision folding.

yes, this is a good point. As soon as he shoved I pretty much knew I was pot committed, so I suppose it would have been better for me to just shove into him, or to check to induce a worse hand to bet....depending on my read....obviously my read wasn't very good.

Thanks for your advice and analysis!

 

[JohnBoyWWFC]

Jam turn.

 

[Arjonius]

Well, I actually didn't say he couldn't have KQ I said it was the hand I feared most, I just thought he would play it differently. But when you spell it out for me, I agree with your perspective that KQ is completely reasonable hand for him to have...I can see that, too. I just felt like if he flopped as strong as KQ he would have put the pressure on on he flop. I may be wrong...reads are never perfect; especially mine.

Your read that he's have played KQ differently on the flop certainly isn't unreasonable. The next step or layer is assessing the strength of your read and how much faith you're going to put in it. Obviously, the stronger your read, the more you can discount KQ from his range when he just calls.

I know that I often make a read and go with it without really asking how confident I am in it. So I'm all too familiar with dropping hands from an opponent's range that, even if they weren't in the most likely group, weren't unlikely enough to eliminate. I can't say if that's what happened to you on this hand, but if so, I can certainly relate.

 

[rock0001]

i dont understand why are you even considering folding after committed almost two thirds of your stack on this hand. you should instantly call the raise and hope you are ahead, and even if he has two pairs you can still win. Your turn raise seems excessive so maybe you should just check call, or even check fold if you think you are dominated. Its almost never profitable to fold a hand if you committed more than half of your stack so calling was the right choice there.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

Your read that he's have played KQ differently on the flop certainly isn't unreasonable. The next step or layer is assessing the strength of your read and how much faith you're going to put in it. Obviously, the stronger your read, the more you can discount KQ from his range when he just calls.

I know that I often make a read and go with it without really asking how confident I am in it. So I'm all too familiar with dropping hands from an opponent's range that, even if they weren't in the most likely group, weren't unlikely enough to eliminate. I can't say if that's what happened to you on this hand, but if so, I can certainly relate.

well, as it turns out he didn't have KQ, so I was basically correct there (whether by accident or not) but the problem was I didn't really have any clue what I expected him to turn over. So I just crossed my fingers and called....I really hate being in that situation where I'm just hoping I'm ahead...but it happens sometimes.

He turned up with a much weaker hand than I could read him for, which just goes to show you can never REALLY drop a hand completely from somebody's range when they shove on you...there's always a chance it's a silly bluff or a weak draw...

The part that bothers me about this hand is I thought my game was advancing beyond just closing my eyes and calling and hoping I'm ahead....

sigh....

 

[Poker Orifice]

I think he's much more likely to flat KQ than raise the flop. It makes no sense to raise the flop given you're UTG raiser you can have AK in your range and shoving would only fold out worse hands and get called by better.

People seem to be missing this ^ crucial bit of info.

This is actually something I see players doing very often in the CC tourneys.... with stacks not suited for it, they snap-click-raise flop with TPgK hands & sooo often it makes no sense. They're basically making it extremely easy for villain to play vs. them (especially if they have sh1t tons of history vs. them) & are losing alot of value. Sometimes seeing their hands (in these spots) go to showdown (of they fold & show) I'm scratchin' my head thinking "wtf? why do that there?"
Often it's a case of poor postflop play skills &/or not thinkin' beyond level1 stuff. Or the old.. "click-raise.. I gots the top pair... see where I'm at!!!" (villain calls... so what did they see?)

 

[Arjonius]

well, as it turns out he didn't have KQ, so I was basically correct there (whether by accident or not) but the problem was I didn't really have any clue what I expected him to turn over. So I just crossed my fingers and called....I really hate being in that situation where I'm just hoping I'm ahead...but it happens sometimes.

I think we quite often have to make decisions based on thin reads, but even when the only thing we have to go in is our experience as to what other players at this level and in this type of game are likely to have, it still shifts the balance ever so slightly toward our making a better decision.

He turned up with a much weaker hand than I could read him for, which just goes to show you can never REALLY drop a hand completely from somebody's range when they shove on you...there's always a chance it's a silly bluff or a weak draw...

I think what it comes down to is deciding where the cutoff point is where we eliminate hands from consideration even though the probability that the opponent has them is greater than 0.

In this case, if we put the chances of a silly bluff or weak shove at say 1-2%, we can effectively eliminate these holdings because they're not likely enough to impact our decision. Otoh, if we think it's 10%, the risk in treating the probability as 0% is obviously greater.

The part that bothers me about this hand is I thought my game was advancing beyond just closing my eyes and calling and hoping I'm ahead....

sigh....

It's not really applicable to this hand, but this statement reminds me of the times when I follow the generally good advice to "go with my read" too far. What I don't remember is to factor in the strength of my read. Sometimes, this leads to decisions that, in retrospect, weren't best; e.g. taking an aggressive line that would be fine when my read is solid, but where I should pot-control more because it's not solid enough to take that line.

That said, I don't deny that a choice based on a thin read feels much more like a pure guess than a well informed decision.

 

[Loonbat]

Raise to 3x pre and ship turn, given stack sizes at this point. This way you can avoid some of the difficult decisions like you have here.

 

[Loonbat]

Seriously, your course of action for the turn should have been determined prior to making the bet.

 

[el_magiciann]

You should be more agressive pre flop and on the flop if he is TAG. Then you gonna know better what he holds. That's my opinion.

 

[JohnBoyWWFC]

Definitely do NOT 3x.

 

[baudib1]

Raising KQ on the flop in this spot is pretty terrible, but it is a SNG.

 

[PoKeRFoRNiA]

On the turn, you HAVE to call even if you put him on KQ. You have 625 chips more to call to win a pot of 3475. If he has KQ, you have 8 outs, which gives you roughly 16% equity. You're getting pot odds of 15%. Even if you fear that he made his two pair, your equity is just too good to give it up. Regardless of what range you possibly put him on, it's still a call.

My advice would be bet bigger pre-flop, which would lead you to bet bigger on the flop since pot will be bigger on the flop. Pre-flop raise was too weak that you've given your villains nearly every good implied odds against you.

 

[WiZZiM]

he played the hand fine, he got it in with likely the best of it. i like the small bet on the turn, it hopefully encourages action, but as mentioned, once we make the bet, we are not folding anymore, we have invested too much. i think shoving folds out a few hands that might continue if we don't bet it all. we might even get called meaning we can just shove the river.

 

[the lab man]

Your pre flop bet was fine and is standard in a STT do not raise higher. You do not want to discourage callers when you hold A/A.I think you played the hand fine and the fact that you thought about villan's range puts you miles ahead of other players.